{"id":311106,"date":"2025-06-26T05:20:31","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T05:20:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=311106"},"modified":"2025-06-28T06:01:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T06:01:18","slug":"why-iran-ceasefire-will-not-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=311106","title":{"rendered":"Why Iran Ceasefire Will Not Last"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vasko Kohlmayer \u2013 LewRockwell.com June 25, 2025<\/strong><\/h1>\n

This is part of the hopeful message President Trump posted<\/a> on Truth Social yesterday:<\/p>\n

\u201cCONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE\u2026 I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, \u2018THE 12 DAY WAR.\u2019 This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn\u2019t, and never will!\u201d<\/p>\n

Fox News quickly followed up: \u201cTrump announces ceasefire now underway after deadly missile strike on Israel in the 11th hour,\u201d read its headline<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The newly forming narrative is clear: Let\u2019s celebrate. President Trump\u2019s daring brilliance averted war, and peace will prevail.<\/p>\n

Those in the America First camp who opposed Trump\u2019s bombing of Iran are now being asked to repent and apologize for questioning the President\u2019s strategic genius as he conducts his grand, four-dimensional geopolitical chess.<\/p>\n

Sadly, despite our collective desire for peace in the Middle East, the ceasefire is unlikely to hold.<\/p>\n

This is because the strikes on Iran were never about nuclear weapons. In fact, there was every indication that Iran did not have an active nuclear program.<\/p>\n

Mere three months ago, Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, testified that, according to a U.S. intelligence community assessment, Iran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program, which it suspended in 2003.<\/p>\n

During her opening statement<\/a> at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on March 25, 2025, Gabbard said:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe IC [Intelligence Community] continues to assess that Iran is not<\/u> building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2020. We continue to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program.\u201d<\/p>\n

The true reason for the unprovoked attack on Iran\u2014a brazen act of military aggression in violation of international law\u2014was not about nonexistent nuclear weapons but about regime change in that country.<\/p>\n

This ill-advised action was driven by two main forces: Benjamin Netanyahu and his band of Israeli hardliners, in conjunction with American neoconservatives. These groups worked hand in hand to manipulate Donald Trump into taking this illegal and misguided action.<\/p>\n

Netanyahu seeks regime change in Iran because Iran has long been Israel\u2019s regional adversary, and he aims to topple the Ayatollah, hoping to replace him with a compliant Western puppet.<\/p>\n

American neoconservatives have two primary motivations. First, many see guiding the U.S. government to serve Israel\u2019s interests as their primary mission. Second, as Iran is an ally of Russia, they aim to dismantle Iran\u2019s regime as part of their broader goal of toppling Vladimir Putin. A regime change in Iran would weaken Russia by depriving it of a key ally and could allow the U.S. to use Iran as a base for further subversion against Russia\u2019s from its exposed underbelly.<\/p>\n

As an aside, the neoconservatives\u2019 desire to overthrow Putin has nothing to do with his alleged ambition to conquer Europe\u2014a claim unsupported by evidence. For example, Russia\u2019s military operation in Ukraine was launched with a limited force of fewer than 200,000 troops, hardly indicative of imperial designs. Instead, their animosity toward Putin stems from his refusal to open Russia\u2019s vast natural resources to transnational globalists seeking wealth and profit.<\/p>\n

Since the goal of regime change in Iran remains unaccomplished, the ceasefire in the Middle East is unlikely to hold.<\/p>\n

We can be almost certain that soon another pretext will emerge to justify renewed aggression against Iran.<\/p>\n

We should be especially vigilant for false flag operations, such as explosions or terrorist acts, which could be quickly attributed to Iran\u2019s government.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump has at times shown a tendency to believe in his own near-omnipotent influence, assuming that his declarations alone have the power to shape reality.<\/p>\n

Just because Trump has proclaimed a ceasefire and the end of the \u201cTwelve-Day War\u201d does not mean real world events will conform to his noble intentions.<\/p>\n

The Israelis and neoconservatives have different objectives, and they are likely to prevail. Peace may be Trump\u2019s stated aim and initial instinct, but\u2014regrettably\u2014he is being skillfully played by Netanyahu and his allies.<\/p>\n

Though people of goodwill desire peace, powerful and ruthless forces are driving us toward war.<\/p>\n

May Donald Trump and the sane individuals among his advisors yet find the wisdom and strength to resist these influences. If they do not, we can expect further conflict and disaster in the Middle East and beyond.<\/p>\n

We are on a profoundly dangerous path indeed.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

Vasko Kohlmayer (email<\/a>) was born and grew up in former communist Czechoslovakia. You can follow his writings by subscribing to his Substack newsletter \u2019Notes from the Twilight Zone\u2019<\/a>. He is the author of\u00a0The West in Crisis: Civilizations and Their Death Drives<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Donate<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are on a dangerous path, writes Vasko Kohlmayer. We should be especially vigilant for false flag operations, such as explosions or terrorist acts, which could be quickly attributed to Iran\u2019s government.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":296113,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,51,37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-311106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Commentary","category-Iran","category-Israel_Anti-Semitism_Zionism_and_US-UK_allies"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=311106"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311106\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":311108,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311106\/revisions\/311108"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/296113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=311106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=311106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=311106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}