Jordanian-King Abdullah-II and Egyptian President el-Sisi<\/p>\n
International outrage in recent days has focused on Donald Trump\u2019s proposal that the US take \u201cownership\u201d of Gaza, and that more than two million Palestinians be displaced to allow the territory to be transformed from \u201ca demolition site\u201d into a \u201criviera\u201d in the Middle East<\/a>.<\/p>\n In Jordan and Egypt, the demand that both countries accept huge numbers of Palestinians from Gaza \u2013 potentially on a permanent basis \u2013 has prompted equal concern. Leaders of both countries immediately rejected the proposal, and the Jordanian king, Abdullah II, and the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi<\/a>, are heading to Washington in an attempt to convince Trump to change course.<\/p>\n \u201cThey are terrified that an Israeli policy of population transfer will actually become real,\u201d said Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow of the Middle East programme at the Chatham House thinktank in London.<\/p>\n Abdullah and Sisi know that they are vulnerable to Trump\u2019s trademark transactional style of geopolitics<\/a> as their countries\u2019 economies and security depend heavily on huge levels<\/a> of US aid and trade.<\/p>\n Jordan accepted large numbers of displaced Palestinians in 1948 during the wars surrounding the foundation of Israel, and in 1967 when Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza. A large proportion of Jordan\u2019s population \u2013 probably more than half \u2013 is of Palestinian origin, with many still classed as refugees.<\/p>\n Katrina Sammour, an independent Amman-based analyst, said: \u201cIt would be a repeat trauma of an already traumatised people. The Nakba [the displacement of 1948] is still very fresh in the collective memory of the Arab people.\u201d<\/p>\n The role, presence and future of Palestinians in Jordan<\/a> is one of the country\u2019s most politically sensitive issues.<\/p>\n In 1970, armed factions of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation came close to wresting control of the kingdom from the current king\u2019s father, Hussein. Though a repeat is highly unlikely, the events 55 years ago have not been forgotten.<\/p>\n Jordanian officials have been warning of the consequences of displacement of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank since the beginning of the war, as violence there has increased and Israeli settlements have expanded. An effort to force Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan \u2013 long an ambition of Israel\u2019s right wing \u2013 would be a red line<\/a> regarded as a \u201cdeclaration of war\u201d by their militarily powerful neighbour, the officials have said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Jordanians are very worried that what happens in Gaza<\/a> [could open] the door to the annexation [by Israel] of the West Bank,\u201d Quilliam said.<\/p>\n Authorities in Jordan have faced months of domestic protests calling for stronger measures in support of Palestinians, and any move to comply with Trump\u2019s demands would be seen as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause. But Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel and close military and economic ties with the US. It also receives massive and vital financial aid from Washington, giving Trump significant leverage. Officials in Amman privately refer to the \u201cbalancing act\u201d required by the kingdom.<\/p>\n \u201cThe questions of who counts as Jordanian and what it means to be Jordanian are highly combustible,\u201d said Alia Brahimi, a regional expert at the Atlantic Council. \u201cSo there\u2019s the demographic issue, but also the fact that Trump is drawing attention to King Abdullah\u2019s ties to Israel and his alliance with and dependence on the US. Both matters have the very real potential to destabilise the Jordanian monarchy.\u201d<\/p>\n Another issue is practical. The Jordanian economy has suffered through the war and public services are stretched to breaking point. Security services have struggled to contain Islamist extremists, while support for more moderate Islamists has apparently surged.<\/p>\n Sammour said: \u201cA plan like this needs years of preparation \u2026 It could be a security nightmare, and Jordan would be seen as betraying the Palestinian cause.\u201d<\/p>\n In Cairo, security is a major concern, especially in the highly sensitive zone of the Sinai desert where some have suggested vast refugee camps could be built. Egypt has refused to allow Palestinians in Gaza to flee into its territory<\/a> during the 16-month war there, fearing a massive and destabilising influx that could become permanent.<\/p>\n Brahimi said: \u201cAmongst a forcibly displaced population there are always going to be militants, whether Hamas or new groups looking to stand up for a new generation of brutalised and disenfranchised Palestinians. If they were to operate from Egyptian soil this would endanger and likely upend Egypt\u2019s peace treaty with Israel, but it would also energise and embolden local militant groups that are opposed to the Egyptian regime.\u201d<\/p>\n Egypt also has deep economic problems, despite receiving vast amounts of aid from the US and elsewhere. \u201cEgypt is a huge country but this would come with a huge \u2026 economic cost,\u201d said Quilliam. \u201cThe Egyptian economy already has massive problems.\u201d<\/p>\n Security services in Egypt struggle to keep a lid on discontent and officials fear new instability could lead to another mass protest movement like in 2011<\/a>. Brahimi said: \u201cAs with King Abdullah of Jordan, there\u2019s the potential for political calamity too, in that neither Arab leader can afford to be complicit in the systematic ethnic cleansing of Palestine<\/a>. Frankly, Trump has given voice to the worst nightmares of the leaderships in Amman and Cairo.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump appears to disagree. In the press conference with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president said Abdullah and Sisi would come around to his proposal and \u201copen their hearts [to] give us the kind of land that we need to get this done and people can live in harmony and in peace\u201d<\/p>\n