{"id":286375,"date":"2024-04-26T07:04:17","date_gmt":"2024-04-26T07:04:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=286375"},"modified":"2024-04-27T05:03:56","modified_gmt":"2024-04-27T05:03:56","slug":"the-u-s-pivots-to-diplomacy-in-yemen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=286375","title":{"rendered":"The U.S. “Pivots to Diplomacy” in Yemen"},"content":{"rendered":"

James Durso \u2013 The Unz Review<\/span><\/a> Apr 24, 2024<\/strong><\/h1>\n

The good news is the United States is calling for diplomacy in the Middle East. The bad news it is because it was bested by Yemen\u2019s rebel Houthis.<\/p>\n

U.S. Special Envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking, bowed to the obvious and admitted<\/a>, \u201cWe favor a diplomatic solution, we know there is no military solution.\u201d Lenderking was channeling Britain\u2019s former prime minister Winston Churchill who opined, \u201cYou can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.\u201d<\/p>\n

The U.S. sent its navy to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden in December 2023 in response to the Houthi attack<\/a> on merchant ships the group claimed were connected to Israel. The Houthis claimed they were attacking maritime commerce in the area until Israel declared a cease fire in Gaza and allowed more aid to enter the enclave.<\/p>\n

The Red Sea and Suez Canal see the transit of 30% of the world\u2019s container traffic<\/a>, so the attacks caused traffic to be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope adding two weeks and significant expense to the journey.<\/p>\n

The Houthis claim to have launched<\/a> over 520 missiles and drones, a mix of anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned surface vessels, and unmanned underwater vessels, at more than 50 ships<\/a>, most with no connection to Israel, and killed three merchant seamen.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Navy suffered three deaths when two Navy SEAL commandos drowned<\/a> in the Arabian Sea during a mission to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to Yemen, and a sailor went overboard<\/a> in unknown circumstances and was declared lost. Houthi casualties<\/a> numbered 37 dead and 30 wounded according to the rebels after 424 airstrikes by U.S. and UK forces<\/p>\n

The Red Sea also hosts several fiber optic cables<\/a> and four were reported damaged in early March. The cause was first feared to be the Houthis, but was likely the sinking merchantman Rubymar<\/em>, damaged by Houthi anti-ship missiles, dragging its anchor across the cables.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s where we stood until early April when Mr. Lenderking admitted there was no military solution and suggested the U.S. would lift the group\u2019s terrorist designation if it stopped attacking merchant shipping.<\/p>\n

OK, but the Houthis already announced their terms: they will stop when there is a ceasefire in Gaza and aid deliveries resume, and Lenderking acknowledged this.<\/p>\n

Though the media is full of stories that U.S. president Joe Biden is angry at Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for excess civilian deaths in Gaza shipments of arms to Israel have not slowed, so the \u201cangry Joe\u201d stuff is likely for the benefit of Muslim voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

The U.S. asked China<\/a> to intervene with the Houthi\u2019s patron, Iran, to get the Houthis to down tools. Nice, but what\u2019s in it for China and Iran?<\/p>\n

Though the Houthis have disrupted the maritime trade critical to the world economy, the U.S. Navy is probably secretly thrilled as it hasn\u2019t seen any real action in decades. One Navy leader<\/a> admitted, \u201cI think you\u2019d have to go back to World War II where you have [U.S. Navy] ships engaged in combat.\u201d<\/p>\n

The envoy\u2019s admission that force has failed is a black eye for the U.S. and its allies that failed to subdue the Houthis, an outfit with less tonnage than the Cajun Navy.<\/p>\n

But the U.S. is not alone. Saudi Arabia<\/a> and its allies intervened in the Yemen civil war in 2015 but, despite 24,000 air raids<\/a>, in 2022 they announced a cessation of hostilities and entered Oman-mediated peace talks. In the interest of a quiet neighborhood, the Saudis closed air, sea and land access<\/a> to Yemen, but later allowed humanitarian flights to resume.<\/p>\n

The U.S. military is also under increasing financial pressure as it is firing $2 million-dollar<\/a> interceptor missiles at drones that cost $2,000. The non-stop operations of ships and aircraft will require intensive, costly maintenance when they return to port and may encourage many sailors to leave the Navy at a time when the service is chronically failing to meet its recruiting goals<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Houthi tactics will be studied by America\u2019s foes and refined as low-cost\/low-tech methods to frustrate U.S. forces and, after, seeing the Americans bested first by the low-tech Taliban in Afghanistan and now the Houthis, others may be tempted to take a crack at the Americans.<\/p>\n

Recent reports that Houthis are running out of weapons<\/a> and Yemeni citizens lost access to remittances<\/a> due to U.S. and European sanctions may be true, but the U.S. retreat to diplomacy will give Yemenis some breathing room. The Houthis may have suffered from the U.S. and UK bombing, but they persevered until the attackers changed course.<\/p>\n

And it wasn\u2019t just U.S. and UK forces that underperformed.<\/p>\n

In February, a German<\/a> navy warship in the Red Sea opened fire on a U.S. drone that it misidentified as a Houthi drone and in April the German frigate Hessen<\/em> has departed<\/a> the Red Sea and no replacement will arrive until August.<\/p>\n

Denmark<\/a> dismissed its defense chief after a Danish navy ship demonstrated flaws in its air defense and ammunition systems. A French<\/a> warship left the Red Sea after it ran out of ammunition countering Houthi attacks, and its commander confessed the \u201cuninhibited violence\u2026was quite surprising.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Houthi attacks<\/a> are a tax on the rest of the world, and so is the reluctance of the U.S. to force a cease-fire in Gaza. With the 2024 presidential election looming, and with Black<\/a> and Hispanic<\/a> voters more favorable to Donald Trump and the Republicans, Biden won\u2019t promote a cease fire as he needs to keep the Jews onside.<\/p>\n

Egypt is losing Suez Canal<\/a> revenue \u2013 down almost 50% \u2013 and will press the U.S. to get serious about a reconciliation that\u2019s good for Yemenis, even if some people in Washington, D.C. are grumpy.<\/p>\n

And Cairo won\u2019t want to use military force in Yemen as Cairo remembers how its 70,000 troops got bogged down in the 1962-1968 North Yemen Civil War. Cairo will be reluctant to aid U.S. efforts to relieve the pressure in Gaza unless the Americans reopen the Red Sea to cargo traffic.<\/p>\n

The Houthis have probably intentionally painted themselves into a corner with the demand for a cease fire. If the U.S. would test the Houthis with a cease fire and they kept up the attacks on shipping, it could publicly expose them as frauds.<\/p>\n

Of course, if the Houthis keep their word it will raise their stature as having brought the Americans to heel, though Washington\u2019s belated discovery of diplomacy may have accomplished that goal.<\/p>\n

For reasons of bureaucratic organization, congressional oversight prerogatives, and ethnic politics, most U.S. foreign policy issues are managed in separate silos. Thus, it is not possible to take from Silo A to give to Silo B, but that\u2019s what the Houthis demand.<\/p>\n

So, what can the U.S. do?<\/p>\n

Force a Gaza cease fire?<\/p>\n

The Americans won\u2019t do that with an election looming, and the only way to force a cease fire would be to stop providing weapons and intelligence information to Israel, a no-go with U.S. congressmen and their defense industry supporters, and especially after the Iranian counterattack on Israel.<\/p>\n

Focus on the peace process<\/a> in Yemen?<\/p>\n

The Yemen peace process is on life support and an all-hands effort at reconciliation, led by the Arab League or the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, is needed for a successful reconciliation, which means a Houthi role in the unity government. U.S. voters won\u2019t care, but will American officials and politicians push back at \u201crewarding terrorism?\u201d<\/p>\n

Probably, though that wasn\u2019t a problem with Ireland or South Africa. On the other hand, Yemen\u2019s neighbors will welcome a peaceful outcome and may stand aside so Washington can be the public face of a failed peace effort (and Al-Jazeera and other Middle East media will give non-stop coverage to Americans\u2019 perfidy.)<\/p>\n

In 2021, newly-elected President Joe Biden promised<\/a> an era of \u201crelentless diplomacy\u201d but the Biden administration has continued the traditional American military-first approach to political challenges.<\/p>\n

If Washington sticks to the script future American officials had better get used to encounters<\/a> like this one between the U.S. and North Vietnam military:<\/p>\n

\u201cYou know you never defeated us on the battlefield,\u2019 said the American colonel.<\/p>\n

The North Vietnamese colonel pondered this remark a moment. \u201cThat may be so,\u201d he replied, \u201cbut it is also irrelevant.\u201d<\/p>\n

The post-World War II free trading system was underwritten by American sea power, so the failure of the maritime expedition in the Red Sea is a bad look after the U.S. defeat in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Navy looks like it lost \u2013 or didn\u2019t win \u2013 the first real maritime scuffle in decades at a time when the fleet<\/a> is too small to meet America\u2019s worldwide commitments.<\/p>\n

So, Washington must consider rebalancing between warfare + sanctions and trade + diplomacy, then, consider the challenge of American navalist Seth Cropsey<\/a> who asked, \u201cWhat is a global navy for?\u201d<\/p>\n

James Durso (@james_durso) is a regular commentator on foreign policy and national security matters. Mr. Durso served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and has worked in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq<\/em><\/p>\n

Originally posted at Defense Info<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Houthis may have suffered from the U.S. and UK bombing, but they persevered until the attackers changed course. Now the U.S. has pledged to resolve problems in the Red Sea using diplomacy rather than force <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":286376,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-286375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Current_Affairs"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=286375"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286375\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":286379,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286375\/revisions\/286379"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/286376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=286375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=286375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=286375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}