{"id":285982,"date":"2024-04-20T05:15:42","date_gmt":"2024-04-20T05:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=285982"},"modified":"2024-04-21T11:43:55","modified_gmt":"2024-04-21T11:43:55","slug":"how-irans-strategic-patience-switched-to-serious-deterrence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=285982","title":{"rendered":"How Iran\u2019s ‘strategic Patience’ Switched to Serious Deterrence"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pepe Escobar \u2013 The Unz Review Apr 15, 2024<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Iran\u2019s retaliatory strikes against Israel were not conducted alone. Strategic partners Russia and China have Tehran\u2019s back, and their role in West Asia\u2019s conflict will only grow if the US doesn\u2019t keep Israel in check.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A little over 48 hours before Iran\u2019s aerial message to Israel across the skies of West Asia, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov confirmed<\/a>, on the record, what so far had been, at best, hush-hush diplomatic talk<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The Russian side keeps in contact with Iranian partners on the situation in the Middle East after the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.<\/p>\n

Ryabkov added, \u201cWe stay in constant touch [with Iran]. New in-depth discussions on the whole range of issues related to the Middle East are also expected in the near future in BRICS.\u201d<\/p>\n

He then sketched The Big Picture:<\/p>\n

Connivance with Israeli actions in the Middle East, which are at the core of Washington\u2019s policy, is in many ways becoming the root cause of new tragedies.<\/p>\n

Here, concisely, we had Russia\u2019s top diplomatic coordinator with BRICS \u2013 in the year of the multipolar organization\u2019s Russian presidency \u2013 indirectly messaging that Russia has Iran\u2019s back. Iran, it should be noted, just became a full-fledged BRICS+ member in January<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s aerial message this weekend confirmed this in practice: their missile guidance systems used the Chinese Beidou satellite navigation system as well as the Russian GLONASS system.<\/p>\n

This is Russia\u2013China intel leading from behind and a graphic example of BRICS+ on the move.<\/p>\n

Ryabkov\u2019s \u201cwe stay in constant touch\u201d plus the satellite navigation intel confirms the deeply interlocked cooperation between the Russia\u2013China strategic partnership and their mutual strategic partner Iran. Based on vast experience in Ukraine, Moscow knew that the biblical psychopathic genocidal entity would keep escalating if Iran only continued to exercise \u201cstrategic patience.\u201d<\/p>\n

The morphing of \u201cstrategic patience\u201d into a new strategic balance had to take some time \u2013 including high-level exchanges with the Russian side. After all, the risk remained that the Israeli attack<\/a> against the Iranian consulate\/ambassador\u2019s residence in Damascus could well prove to be the 2024 remix of the killing of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.<\/p>\n

And don\u2019t forget the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tehran did manage to upend the massive Western psychological operations aimed at pushing it into a strategic misstep.<\/p>\n

Iran started with a misdirecting masterstroke. As US\u2013Israeli fear porn went off the charts, fueled by dodgy western \u201cintel,\u201d the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) made a quick sideways move, seizing<\/a> an Israeli-owned container ship near the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

That was an eminently elegant manoeuvre \u2013 reminding the collective west of Tehran\u2019s hold on the Strait of Hormuz, a fact immeasurably more dangerous to the whole western economic house of cards than any limited strike on their \u201caircraft carrier\u201d in West Asia. That did happen anyway.<\/p>\n

And once again, with a degree of elegance. Unlike that \u2018moral\u2019 army specialized in killing women, children, and the elderly and bombing hospitals, mosques, schools, universities, and humanitarian convoys, the Iranian attack<\/a> targeted key Israeli military sites such as the Nevatim and Ramon airbases in the Negev and an intel center in the occupied Golan Heights \u2013 the three centers used by Tel Aviv in its strike on Iran\u2019s Damascus consulate.<\/p>\n

This was a highly choreographed show. Multiple early warning signs gifted Tel Aviv with plenty of time to profit from US intel and evacuate fighter jets and personnel, which was duly followed by a plethora of US military radars coordinating the defense strategy.<\/p>\n

It was American firepower that smashed the bulk of what may have been a swarm of 185 Shahed-136 drones \u2013 using everything from ship-mounted air defense to fighter jets. The rest was shot down<\/a> over Jordan by The Little King\u2019s military \u2013 the Arab street will never forget his treachery \u2013 and then by dozens of Israeli jets.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s defenses were de facto saturated by the suicide drone-ballistic missile combo. On the ballistic missile front, several pierced the dense maze of Israel\u2019s air defenses, with Israel officially claiming nine successful hits \u2013 interestingly enough, all of them hitting super relevant military targets.<\/p>\n

The whole show had the budget of a mega blockbuster. For Israel \u2013 without even counting the price of US, UK, and Israeli jets \u2013 just the multi-layered interception system set it back at least $1.35 billion<\/a>, according to an Israeli official. Iranian military sources tally the cost of their drone and missile salvos at only $35 million \u2013 2.5 percent of Tel Aviv\u2019s expenditure \u2013 made with full indigenous technology.<\/p>\n

A new West Asian chessboard <\/strong><\/h3>\n

It took only a few hours for Iran to finally metastasize strategic patience into serious deterrence, sending an extremely powerful and multi-layered message to its adversaries and masterfully changing the game across the whole West Asian chessboard.<\/p>\n

Were the biblical psychopaths to engage in a real Hot War against Iran, there\u2019s no chance in hell Tel Aviv can intercept hundreds of Iranian missiles \u2013 the state-of-the-art ones excluded from the current show \u2013 without an early warning mechanism spread over several days. Without the Pentagon\u2019s umbrella of weaponry and funds, Israeli defense is unsustainable.<\/p>\n

It will be fascinating to see what lessons Moscow will glean from this profusion of lights in the West Asian sky, its sly eyes taking in the frantic Israeli, political, and military scene as the heat continues to rise on the slowly boiling \u2013 and now screaming \u2013 frog<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As for the US, a West Asian war \u2013 one it hasn\u2019t scripted itself \u2013 does not suit its immediate interests, as an old-school Deep State stalwart confirmed by email:<\/p>\n

That could permanently end the area as an oil-producing region and astronomically raise the oil price to levels that will crash the world financial structure. It is conceivable that the United States banking system could similarly collapse if the oil price rises to $900 a barrel should Middle East oil be cut off or destroyed.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no wonder that the Biden combo, days before the Iranian response, was frantically begging Beijing, Riyadh, and Ankara, among others, to hold Tehran back. The Iranians might have even agreed \u2013 had the UN Security Council imposed a permanent ceasefire in Gaza to calm the regional storm. Washington was mute.<\/p>\n

The question now is whether it will remain mute. Mohammad Bagheri, chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, went straight to the point<\/a>:<\/p>\n

We have conveyed a message to America through the Swiss Embassy that American bases will become a military target if they are used in future aggressive actions of the Zionist regime. We will consider this as aggression and will act accordingly.<\/p>\n

The US dilemma is confirmed<\/a> by former Pentagon analyst Michael Maloof:<\/p>\n

We have got some 35 bases that surround Iran, and they thereby become vulnerable. They were meant to be a deterrence. Clearly, deterrence is no longer on the table here. Now they become the American\u2019 Achilles heel\u2019 because of their vulnerabilities to attack.<\/p>\n

All bets are off on how the US\u2013Israel combo will adapt to the new Iranian-crafted deterrence reality. What remains, for the historic moment, is the pregnant-with-meaning aerial show of Muslim Iran singlehandedly unleashing hundreds of drones and missiles on Israel, a feat feted all across the lands of Islam. And especially by the battered Arab street, subjugated by decrepit monarchies that keep doing business with Israel over the dead bodies of the Palestinians of Gaza.<\/p>\n

(Republished from The Cradle<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Iranian strike on Israel has dramatically altered the strategic balance of power, writes Pepe Escobar. For a start, Russia and China are now watching Iran\u2019s back<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":285983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[51,37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-285982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Iran","category-Israel_Anti-Semitism_Zionism_and_US-UK_allies"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=285982"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285982\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":285986,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285982\/revisions\/285986"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/285983"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=285982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=285982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=285982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}