Once upon a time, the Itlamas shopping mall in Izhevsk represented the arrival of the modest middle-class dream in Russia\u2019s provinces.<\/p>\n
Its steel and glass facade advertised H&M, McDonald\u2019s, and Detsky Mir, Russia\u2019s leading chain of toy shops \u2013 symbols of the social contract Vladimir Putin cut with the Russian public more than 20 years ago.<\/p>\n
Today, both Western and Russian brands have vanished. The Italmas Mall is now the Italmas Scientific Research Centre, producing Lancet attack drones for the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
It is one of a clutch of shopping centres, bakeries, and other civilian infrastructure to be turned into arms factories since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine<\/a> in 2022.<\/p>\n Russians have also been called upon to work six-day weeks and volunteer in factories as part of an intensified war effort. There is even footage from Russian TV which appears to show Russian children learning to assemble munitions parts in workshops.<\/p>\n To underline that bellicose new reality, Dmitry Medvedev,\u00a0the former Russian president, was filmed striding about in a Bond villain-esque black trench coat on a recent visit to the Uralvagonzavod tank factory.<\/p>\n These are all just the most visible parts of an economic mobilisation that Vladimir Putin hopes – and Western and Ukrainian generals fear<\/a> – will decisively turn the tide in the war.<\/p>\n Armoured truck production line. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cWe\u2019re currently in a scenario where Russia is spending 40 per cent of GDP on this war – that\u2019s more than health and education,\u201d a Western official told The Telegraph this week.<\/p>\n It is a statistic that the collective West is struggling to match<\/a>. Over time, defence experts warn, it could give Russia the overwhelming materiel superiority to win the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n And while the urgency of the situation is widely recognised behind the scenes, Western governments are simply not keeping up.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is f—ing insane,\u201d one UK defence insider said, asking for anonymity to speak frankly and referring to institutional barriers to expanding Western arms production.<\/p>\n The secrecy of Russia\u2019s defence industry, and the tendency of officials to massage figures for propaganda purposes, make it difficult to assess the exact extent of Russia\u2019s shift to the war economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n But almost all experts agree it is real, dangerous, and well under way.<\/p>\n Officially, Russia has increased military spending from 2.7 per cent of GDP in 2022, to 3.9 per cent in 2023 to 6 per cent – or around a third of all government spending – in 2024.<\/p>\n That probably masks a much larger figure that includes spending on reconstruction in occupied parts of Ukraine and redirection of private sector wealth to the war effort.<\/p>\n In 2023, Russia produced 1,530 tanks and 2,518 armoured fighting vehicles, Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister,\u00a0 said in a report to parliament in December.<\/p>\n He said that that represented an increase in tank production of 560 per cent since February 2022. Production of infantry fighting vehicles was up 360 per cent and armoured personnel carriers by 350 per cent.<\/p>\n That would only be enough to replenish what Russia has already lost on the battlefield, rather than expand its army.<\/p>\n [NOTE: The Telegraph offers no hard evidence to corroborate this claim and we suspect that like much of the Western MSM, this statement was suggested by the Telegraph\u2019s contacts in Western intelligence.<\/p>\n Elements of the UK media are known to keep in contact with British intelligence. It is a reciprocal relationship, whereby the journalists are fed tips and info in return for which they plant seemingly innocuous perspectives into their stories. In this particular case by falsely implying that the Russians have suffered inordinately heavy losses in Ukraine.<\/p>\n Moreover, the Telegraph also ignores another factor that may be behind Russia\u2019s drive to expand its production of arms and armaments. Russia is presently engaged in a major expansion of its armed forces<\/a> and those new recruits numbering an additional 170,000<\/a> will obviously require more weapons and equipment. Ed.]<\/p>\n Western officials told the New York Times this month that Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year – double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.<\/p>\n Add in deliveries of shells, missiles and drones from Iran<\/a> and North Korea, and Russia is already reasserting the fire superiority it had at the beginning of the war.<\/p>\n The battlefield impact is immediate and obvious.<\/p>\n In a five-day barrage at the end of December, Russia fired 500 missiles and drones at Ukraine, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.<\/p>\n Research published by security think tank RUSI this month showed that Ukraine was firing 7,000 artillery rounds a day during its summer counter-offensive, much more than Russia\u2019s 5,000.<\/p>\n By this month, the Russians were firing 10,000 and the Ukrainians were down to 2,000.<\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t just limit Ukraine\u2019s ability to launch fresh offensives.<\/p>\n It means artillery units are struggling to suppress the Russian guns with counter-battery fire, and leaves infantrymen in the trenches without desperately-needed fire support in the face of Russian assaults.<\/p>\n By February 2023, a year into the war, European production was estimated at just 300,000 rounds per year.<\/p>\n In November, Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, admitted that an EU pledge to provide Ukraine with a million shells by March this year would not be met.<\/p>\n Dmitri Alperovitch of the Silverado Policy Accelerator think-tank, said: \u201cYou have to look at the specifics. Is Russia able to outproduce the West in terms of building submarines or frigates? No, but is it able to outproduce the West in artillery shells<\/a>? Yes.<\/p>\n \u201cIt has had a lot of capacity in that area, which the West has not had because of the prioritised artillery for many decades. And it very quickly put itself on a war footing when it comes to defence industrial production, which the West has not done. And, you know, it makes sense, we\u2019re not at war and this war is not existential for us like it is for Ukraine.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve been slow with long-term contracts, we\u2019ve been slow in ramping up manufacturing production<\/a>, particularly Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n So far, Russia\u2019s output is unlikely to deliver enough material for it to return to the general offensive in 2024. It has taken too much of a mauling in the previous two years to generate a credible attacking force.<\/p>\n But the Kremlin is thinking beyond the end of this year.<\/p>\n \u201cThey are talking about mobilising their defence industry over the next three years, which implies they are looking to fight the war for at least three to four years,\u201d said a defence insider.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are at a moment where the Russians are vulnerable because production does not meet their demands. But they will turn a corner,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n The implication is clear: if the West does not act, Ukraine may lose the war. And what comes after that, no one knows<\/a> – but there have been some alarming signals from Moscow about further land grabs in Europe.<\/p>\n Mr Pistorius has warned that a Nato-Russia war could potentially break out in the next five to eight years.<\/p>\n The German tabloid Bild recently revealed that one theoretical scenario being considered by German military chiefs is a potential Russian attack on the Suwalki Gap, a strategically sensitive land corridor on the Polish-Lithuanian border. The two countries are preparing to hold joint exercises in the area in the spring.<\/p>\n Although Russia’s military budget has increased dramatically, it is still dwarfed by U.S arms spending. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Russian-arms-factory.jpg\")
<\/a>![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Global-arms-expendature.png\")
<\/a>
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/A-Zircon-hypersonic-missile-is-launched-from-Russian-Naavy-frigate-Admiral-Gorshkov.jpg\")
<\/a>