Russia is heading towards victory in Ukraine with the initiative unequivocally transferring to Moscow, one of Britain\u2019s most senior former officers has told The National<\/em>.<\/p>\n In a wide-ranging interview, Gen Sir Richard Barrons argued that Ukraine\u2019s military<\/a> \u201chas got nothing left in the locker right now\u201d after its gruelling summer counter-offensive.<\/p>\n Unless the West improves its military aid, the momentum is likely to remain with President Vladimir Putin, fuelled by significant assistance<\/a> from Iran which has sent not only kamikaze drones but ballistic missiles that are being used to soak up Ukraine\u2019s air defence weapons.<\/p>\n If Europe and America fail to provide Kyiv with the weapons and money<\/a> it needs then it would be \u201can absolute failure of politics\u201d that will see a resurgent Russia on its doorstep<\/a> with a far more powerful army than before the invasion, argued the former head of Britain\u2019s Joint Force Command.<\/p>\n As the war approaches its third year, both sides are locked in an attritional stalemate along a 1,000km front line with little likelihood of a decisive breakthrough until 2025.<\/p>\n Donated by the West, Ukrainian Army tanks on the battlefields of Ukraine. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n \u201cThe initiative in this war is unequivocally transferring to Russia and that is not the situation we expected at the start of this year but it\u2019s an honest appraisal of where we are,\u201d said Gen Barrons.<\/p>\n 2023 has not been without its challenges for Mr Putin, with the Wagner mutiny<\/a> in June proving the gravest challenge to his authority. But with mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin probably assassinated<\/a> in an air crash, the Russian President now appears more secure and confident<\/a> than at any time since the February 2022 invasion.<\/p>\n \u201cThat’s a combination of the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to deliver even its minimum objectives,\u201d said Gen Barrons. \u201cThen the major wobble in US politics and now EU politics on financial support to Ukraine. The reason he’s much more confident is because he’s not losing this war. And Russia wins by not losing.\u201d<\/p>\n A key ingredient to victory for either side will be building enough shells to break through the front lines, said Gen Barrons, a former Royal Artillery officer.<\/p>\n It is estimated that Russia fired between 10 and 12 million rounds in the first year of the war \u2013 on occasion using an astonishing 60,000 shells a day.<\/p>\n While its stocks have depleted, one million shells from North Korea will help tide Moscow over until its manufacturing base ramps up production to two million a year by the end of 2024.<\/p>\n By contrast, the US should be able to produce about 600,000 155mm rounds next year and the EU might get to 300,000 with Britain\u2019s BAE Systems up to another 100,000.<\/p>\n But Russia, whose industry is on a war footing, will still be outproducing the West by two-to-one.<\/p>\n Without massed artillery fire, and lacking a sizeable air force, Ukraine is unlikely to succeed and could itself be subject to a Russian offensive opened with a huge bombardment.<\/p>\n The Israel-Gaza war has seen a further depletion of western stocks, with munitions sent to Israel that may otherwise have gone to Kyiv.<\/p>\n \u201cPutin will be rubbing his hands with glee at the distraction of Gaza particularly with artillery ammunition that was going to go to Ukraine now being fired at Palestinians,\u201d said the veteran of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.<\/p>\nPutin ascendant<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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<\/a>Artillery barrage<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Empty locker<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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