A Ukrainian serviceman takes cover in a trench during shelling next to a 105mm howitzer near the embattled city of Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023<\/p>\n
US intelligence reportedly warned in February that Ukraine might fail to amass sufficient troops and weaponry for its planned spring counter-offensive<\/a>, and might fall \u201cwell short\u201d of Kyiv\u2019s goals for recapturing territory seized by Russia, according to one of a trove of leaked defence documents<\/a>.<\/p>\n A document tagged as \u201ctop secret\u201d quoted by the Washington Post<\/a> said that Kyiv was facing significant \u201cforce generation and sustainment shortfalls\u201d and was therefore only likely to achieve \u201cmodest territorial gains\u201d. The document is a snapshot of the situation in early February, and it is unclear how far Ukraine, with the support of Nato member states, has been able to make up the shortfalls since then.<\/p>\n Another document, dated 23 February and seen by the Guardian, gives an overview of the progress of building 12 \u201ccombat credible\u201d new brigades to lead the counter-offensive, equipped with a target of 253 tanks and about 1,500 other armoured vehicles of different kinds. Three brigades were to be generated by the Ukrainians alone, while the remaining nine were to be established with the help of the US, allies and partners.<\/p>\n The planned brigades were a long way from readiness at the time of the documents, with five yet to begin their training. Six of the brigades had half or less the equipment they needed to hand.<\/p>\n The White House would not officially confirm the authenticity of the documents, but US officials have so far only pointed to one document about Russian and Ukrainian casualties, reposted on the Telegram messaging app, as having been manipulated. The justice department has begun a criminal investigation into the leak, and the Biden administration has confirmed it is talking to partners to limit the damage to a string of bilateral relations.<\/p>\n \u201cWe will continue to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this and the extent of it,\u201d the defence secretary, Lloyd Austin told reporters on Tuesday.<\/p>\n Kyiv has yet to comment officially on the leaks, which laid bare Ukraine\u2019s military deployments along the frontlines and their vulnerabilities, especially in the form of depleted stocks of ammunition.<\/p>\n \u201cThe US is their biggest backer, so they [Ukraine] will get over it,\u201d one European diplomat said. \u201cThe US have been consistently downbeat on Ukraine\u2019s capabilities and they keep on getting it wrong. So that\u2019s not new. What is damaging is it reveals what the Americans do and do not know about the Russians. And that\u2019s a problem.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe other big problem is we don\u2019t know how much is out there,\u201d the diplomat said.<\/p>\n The leaked documents also revealed fraught relations with supposed allies and partners<\/a>, including some who appear to lean more towards Moscow.<\/p>\n One of the documents, drawn from CIA intelligence reports, shows that the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orb\u00e1n<\/a>, described the US as one of the top three adversaries of his party, Fidesz, at an internal political strategy session on 22 February.<\/p>\n The discussion took place at a Fidesz parliamentary group meeting in Balatonf\u00fcred. A pro-government source in Budapest claimed Orb\u00e1n had not named the US but the Biden administration specifically as a top adversary, arguing that constituted an \u201cimportant difference\u201d.<\/p>\n The source added: \u201cMembers of Fidesz feared the US government would interfere in the election in some way.\u201d<\/p>\n A Budapest-based diplomat said: \u201cThe relationship between the United States and Hungary<\/a> has never been so tense before.\u201d<\/p>\n The disclosure of the highly classified material represents Washington\u2019s worst national security breach in many years<\/a>, and includes details about Ukraine\u2019s lack of ammunition and US intelligence-collection methods used against Russia.<\/p>\n One of the latest leaks claims Egypt was planning to covertly supply Russia with rockets and other munitions, although the US was said to believe the plan had never been carried out, the Washington Post reported.<\/p>\n \u201cEgypt is a significant security partner and remains so in the region,\u201d John Kirby, the national security council spokesman, said. He would not comment on the authenticity of the documents but added: \u201cWhat I will tell you is we\u2019ve seen no indication that Egypt is providing lethal weaponry capabilities to Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n Asked about the document, the spokesperson for Egypt\u2019s foreign ministry, Ahmed Abu Zeid, told the Post: \u201cEgypt\u2019s position from the beginning is based on non-involvement in this crisis and committing to maintain equal distance with both sides, while affirming Egypt\u2019s support to the UN charter and international law.\u201d<\/p>\n