{"id":266668,"date":"2023-03-22T08:05:34","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T08:05:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=266668"},"modified":"2023-03-23T06:40:36","modified_gmt":"2023-03-23T06:40:36","slug":"ukraine-short-of-skilled-troops-and-munitions-as-losses-pessimism-grow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=266668","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow"},"content":{"rendered":"

Introduction \u2013 March 21, 2023<\/strong><\/h1>\n

The following Washington Post article marks a shift in how the Western corporate media portrays the conflict in Ukraine. As it finally acknowledges the growing problems faced by Ukraine\u2019s forces.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, duplicity runs deep in the Western corporate media so it still strives to portray a highly distorted picture of events. For example it recounts how:<\/p>\n

\u201cU.S. and European officials have estimated that as many as 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of Russia\u2019s invasion\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

On the face of it this sounds like a more honest assessment than earlier reports, when some in the Western military industrial complex even suggested that Ukraine could prevail<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, although it marks a dramatic departure from earlier reports about Ukraine\u2019s position, the following still amounts to a limited hangout<\/a>. This is all too apparent when contrasted with recent assessments from Douglas Macgregor.<\/p>\n

For example, the following report talks of 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded. While in contrast, Macgregor reports<\/a> more reliable estimates of 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 300,000 to 400,000 wounded.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a big difference and that being the case you have to wonder what else the Washington Post is trying to conceal?<\/p>\n

Note the officer the Post spoke with in the following article was demoted days after he spoke to the Washington Post<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow<\/strong><\/h1>\n

By Isabelle Khurshudyan, Paul Sonne and\u00a0Karen DeYoung \u2013 Washington Post March 13, 2023<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The quality of Ukraine\u2019s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv\u2019s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.<\/p>\n

U.S. and European officials have estimated that as many as 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of Russia\u2019s invasion early last year, compared with about 200,000 on the Russian side, which has a much larger military and roughly triple the population from which to draw conscripts. Ukraine keeps its running casualty numbers secret, even from its staunchest Western supporters.<\/p>\n

Statistics aside, an influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Kupol.<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cThe most valuable thing in war is combat experience,\u201d said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. \u201cA soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It\u2019s heaven and earth.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,\u201d Kupol added. \u201cUnfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital. An inability by Ukraine to execute a much-hyped counteroffensive would fuel new criticism that the United States and its European allies waited too long, until the force had already deteriorated, to deepen training programs and provide armored fighting vehicles, including Bradleys and Leopard battle tanks.<\/p>\n

The situation on the battlefield now may not reflect a full picture of Ukraine\u2019s forces, because Kyiv is training troops for the coming counteroffensive separately and deliberately holding them back from current fighting, including the defense of Bakhmut, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid.<\/p>\n

Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine\u2019s presidential office, said the state of the Ukrainian force does not diminish his optimism about a coming counteroffensive. \u201cI don\u2019t think we\u2019ve exhausted our potential,\u201d Yermak said. \u201cI think that in any war, there comes a time when you have to prepare new personnel, which is what is happening right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

And the situation for Russia may be worse. During a NATO meeting last month, U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace said that 97 percent of Russia\u2019s army was already deployed in Ukraine and that Moscow was suffering \u201cFirst World War levels of attrition.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s always belief in a miracle,\u201d he said. \u201cEither it will be a massacre and corpses or it\u2019s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.\u201d<\/p>\n

How much increased Western military aid and training will tip the balance in such a spring offensive remains uncertain, given the scars of attrition that are beginning to show.<\/p>\n

One senior Ukrainian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, called the number of tanks promised by the West a \u201csymbolic\u201d amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you have more resources, you more actively attack,\u201d the senior official said. \u201cIf you have fewer resources, you defend more. We\u2019re going to defend. That\u2019s why if you ask me personally, I don\u2019t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I\u2019d like to believe in it, but I\u2019m looking at the resources and asking, \u2018With what?\u2019 Maybe we\u2019ll have some localized breakthroughs.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t have the people or weapons,\u201d the senior official added. \u201cAnd you know the ratio: When you\u2019re on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can\u2019t afford to lose that many people.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such analysis is far less optimistic than the public statements by Ukraine\u2019s political and military leadership.<\/p>\n

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has described 2023 as \u201cthe year of victory\u201d for Ukraine. His military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov<\/a>, touted the possibility of Ukrainians vacationing this summer in Crimea, the peninsula Russia annexed illegally from Ukraine nine years ago.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur president inspires us to win,\u201d Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine\u2019s ground forces commander, said in an interview with The Washington Post. \u201cGenerally, we all think the same, and we understand that for us it is of course necessary to win by the end of the year. And it is real. It is real if we are given all the help which we have been promised by our partners.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the front lines, however, the mood is dark.<\/p>\n

Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.<\/p>\n

His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia\u2019s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.<\/p>\n

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Ukrainian servicemen move towards the front line near Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Sergey SHESTAK \/ AFP) (Photo by SERGEY SHESTAK\/AFP via Getty Images) Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cI get 100 new soldiers,\u201d Kupol said. \u201cThey don\u2019t give me any time to prepare them. They say, \u2018Take them into the battle.\u2019 They just drop everything and run. That\u2019s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn\u2019t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, \u2018I\u2019m afraid of the sound of the shot.\u2019 And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. \u2026 We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.\u201d<\/p>\n

He described severe ammunition shortages, including a lack of simple mortar bombs and grenades for U.S.-made MK 19s.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has also faced an acute shortage of artillery shells, which Washington and its allies have scrambled to address, with discussions about how to shore up Ukrainian stocks dominating daily meetings on the war at the White House National Security Council. Washington\u2019s efforts have kept Ukraine fighting, but use rates are very high, and scarcity persists.<\/p>\n

You\u2019re on the front line,\u201d Kupol said. \u201cThey\u2019re coming toward you, and there\u2019s nothing to shoot with.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kupol said Kyiv needed to focus on better preparing new troops in a systematic way. \u201cIt\u2019s like all we do is give interviews and tell people that we\u2019ve already won, just a little bit further away, two weeks, and we\u2019ll win,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Dmytro, a Ukrainian soldier whom The Post is identifying only by first name for security reasons, described many of the same conditions. Some of the less-experienced troops serving at his position with the 36th Marine Brigade in the Donetsk region \u201care afraid to leave the trenches,\u201d he said. Shelling is so intense at times, he said, that one soldier will have a panic attack, then \u201cothers catch it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The first time he saw fellow soldiers very shaken, Dmytro said, he tried to talk them through the reality of the risks. The next time, he said, they \u201cjust ran from the position.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t blame them,\u201d he said. \u201cThey were so confused.\u201d<\/p>\n

The challenges stem from steep losses. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine\u2019s commander in chief, said in August that nearly 9,000 of his soldiers had died. In December, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, said the number was up to 13,000. But Western officials have given higher estimates and, in any case, the Ukrainian figures excluded the far larger number of wounded who are no longer able to fight.<\/p>\n

A German official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid, said that Berlin estimates Ukrainian casualties, including dead and wounded, are as high as 120,000. \u201cThey don\u2019t share the information with us because they don\u2019t trust us,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, a Russian offensive has been building since early January, according to Syrsky. Budanov, Ukraine\u2019s military intelligence chief, told The Post last month that Russia had more than 325,000 soldiers in Ukraine, and another 150,000 mobilized troops could soon join the fight. Ukrainian soldiers report being outnumbered and having less ammunition.<\/p>\n

The stakes for Ukraine in the coming months are particularly high, as Western countries aiding Kyiv look to see whether Ukrainian forces can once again seize the initiative and reclaim more territory from Russian control.<\/p>\n

Russia is also facing ammunition, manpower and motivation problems \u2014 and has notched only incremental gains in recent months despite the strained state of Ukraine\u2019s force. As bad as Ukraine\u2019s losses are, Russia\u2019s are worse, the U.S. official said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe question is whether Ukraine\u2019s relative advantage is sufficient to attain their objectives, and whether those advantages can be sustained,\u201d said Michael Kofman, a military analyst at Virginia-based CNA. \u201cThat depends not just on them, but also on the West.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite reports of untrained mobilized Russian fighters being thrown into battle, Syrsky said those now arriving are well-prepared. \u201cWe have to live and fight in these realities,\u201d he said. \u201cOf course, it\u2019s problematic for us. \u2026 It forces us to be more precise in our firing, more detailed in our reconnaissance, more careful in choosing our positions and more detailed in organizing the interaction between the units. There is no other way.\u201d<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s recent gains \u2014 notably around Bakhmut \u2014 have not significantly tilted the battlefield, and U.S. military officials have said that even if Russia seizes Bakhmut, it would be of little strategic importance. But given the heavy casualties Ukraine is suffering there, officials in Washington have questioned Kyiv\u2019s refusal to retreat. The United States has been advising Ukraine to retreat from the city since at least January, the U.S. official said.<\/p>\n

A Ukrainian official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said the battle for Bakhmut was depleting Russian forces there \u2014 mainly Wagner fighters who have been Moscow\u2019s most effective of late \u2014 and that Ukrainian units defending the city were not slated to be deployed in upcoming offensive operations anyway.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has lost many of its junior officers who received U.S. training over the past nine years, eroding a corps of leaders who helped distinguish the Ukrainians from their Russian enemies at the start of the invasion, the Ukrainian official said. Now, the official said, those forces must be replaced. \u201cA lot of them are killed,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

A Ukrainian serviceman takes cover in a trench during shelling next to a 105mm howitzer near the embattled city of Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

At the start of the invasion, Ukrainians rushed to volunteer for military duty, but now men across the country who did not sign up have begun to fear being handed draft slips on the street. Ukraine\u2019s internal security service recently shut down Telegram accounts that were helping Ukrainians avoid locations where authorities were distributing summonses.<\/p>\n

Initially, the United States focused its training on new weapons systems Washington had decided to provide Kyiv, such as M777 artillery pieces and HIMARS rocket launchers. In January, after nearly a year of all-out war, the United States began training Ukrainian forces in combined-arms warfare. Just one battalion, of about 650 people, has completed the training in Germany so far.<\/p>\n

Additional Ukrainian battalions will complete the training by the end of March, and the program will adjust as Ukraine\u2019s needs evolve, said Lt. Col. Garron Garn, a Pentagon spokesman.<\/p>\n

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin \u201cremains laser-focused on ensuring that Ukraine is receiving the training it needs for the current fight,\u201d Garn said. The United States is \u201cworking around-the-clock\u201d to fulfill Ukraine\u2019s security needs, in addition to investing billions of dollars to produce and procure artillery ammunition, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bottom line is that we are getting the Ukrainians what they need, when they need it,\u201d Garn said. \u201cAnd as President Biden and Secretary Austin have emphasized repeatedly, we will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even with new equipment and training, U.S. military officials consider Ukraine\u2019s force insufficient to attack all along the giant front<\/a>, where Russia has erected substantive defenses, so troops are being trained to probe for weak points that allow them to break through with tanks and armored vehicles.<\/p>\n

Russia advances in Bakhmut by sending waves of mercenaries to certain death<\/a><\/p>\n

Britain is also training Ukrainian recruits, including about 10,000 last year, with another 20,000 expected this year. The European Union has said it will train 30,000 Ukrainians in 2023.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has been holding back soldiers for a spring offensive and training them as part of newly assembled assault brigades. Kyiv is also organizing battalions around the new fighting vehicles and tanks that Western nations are providing.<\/p>\n

Syrsky said he is focused on holding the line against Russian attacks while his deputies prepare soldiers for the next offensive.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to buy time to prepare reserves,\u201d Syrsky said, referring to the Ukrainian soldiers training abroad with Western weapons. \u201cWe know that we have to withstand this attack to prepare the reserves that will take part in future actions properly. \u2026 Some people defend, others prepare.\u201d<\/p>\n

U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine\u2019s offensive to start in late April or early May, and they are acutely aware of the urgency of supplying Kyiv because a drawn-out war could favor Russia, which has more people, money and weapons manufacturing.<\/p>\n

Asked at a recent congressional hearing how much more U.S. aid might be required, Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl told House lawmakers that he did not know. \u201cWe don\u2019t know the course or trajectory of the conflict,\u201d Kahl said. \u201cIt could end six months from now, it could end two years from now, three years from now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sonne and DeYoung reported from Washington. Souad Mekhennet in Munich, David L. Stern in Kyiv and Siobh\u00e1n O\u2019Grady in Kharkiv, Ukraine, contributed to this report.<\/em><\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Western corporate media is now finally acknowledging that things are not looking good for Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. Indeed, such was the honesty of the officer the Washington Post talked to in this article that he was demoted days later <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":261948,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[19,91,116],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-266668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Behind_The_News","category-russia","category-ukraine"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=266668"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266668\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":266707,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266668\/revisions\/266707"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/261948"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=266668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=266668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=266668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}