{"id":264561,"date":"2023-02-03T08:44:01","date_gmt":"2023-02-03T08:44:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=264561"},"modified":"2023-02-05T08:37:03","modified_gmt":"2023-02-05T08:37:03","slug":"ukraine-is-sinking-are-western-elites-bailing-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=264561","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine Is Sinking. Are Western Elites Bailing Out?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mike Whitney \u2013 The Unz Review Feb 2, 2023<\/strong><\/h1>\n

What makes the RAND Corporation\u2019s latest report on Ukraine so significant, is not the quality of the analysis, but the fact that the nation\u2019s most prestigious national security think-tank has taken an opposite position on the war than the Washington political class and their globalist allies<\/strong>. This is a very big deal.<\/strong> Keep in mind, wars don\u2019t end because the public opposes them. That is a myth. Wars end when a critical split emerges between elites that eventually leads to a change in policy. The RAND Corporation\u2019s new report, \u201cAvoiding a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict\u201d<\/a>, represents just such a split. It indicates that powerful elites have broken with the majority opinion because they think the current policy is hurting the United States.<\/strong> We believe this shift in perspective is going to gain momentum until it triggers a more-assertive demand for negotiations. In other words, the RAND report is the first step towards ending the war.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Consider, for a minute, this excerpt from the preamble of the report:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

This quote effectively sumarizes the entire document. Think about it: For the last 11 months we have been told repeatedly that the US will support Ukraine \u201cfor as long as it takes.\u201d The above quote assures us that that\u2019s not going to happen. The United States is not going to undermine its own interests to pursue the unachievable dream of expelling Russia from Ukraine.<\/strong> (Even the hawks no longer believe that is possible.<\/strong>) Rational members of the foreign policy establishment are going to evaluate Ukraine\u2019s prospects for success and weigh them against the growing likelihood that the conflict could unexpectedly spiral out-of-control. That, of course, would serve no one\u2019s interest and could ignite a direct clash between Russia and the United States. Also, US policymakers will decide whether the ballooning collateral damage is worth the expense. In other words, are the ruptured supplylines, the rising inflation, the increasing energy and food shortages, and the declining weapons stockpiles a fair trade-off for \u201cweakening Russia\u201d. Many would say, \u201cNo.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

In some respects, the RAND report is just the first in a long line of falling dominoes. As Ukraine\u2019s battlefield losses mount \u2013and it becomes more evident that Russia will control all the territory east of the Dnieper River\u2013 the flaws in Washington\u2019s strategy will become more apparent and will be more sharply criticized. People will question the wisdom of economic sanctions that hurt our closest allies while helping Russia. They will ask why the United States is following a policy that has precipitated a strong move away from the dollar and US debt? And, they will wonder why the US deliberately sabotaged a peace deal in March when the probability of a Ukrainian victory is near zero<\/strong>. The Rand report seems to anticipate all these questions as well as the \u2018shift in mood\u2019 they will generate. This is why the authors are pushing for negotiations and a swift end to the conflict. This is an excerpt from an article at RT:<\/p>\n

The RAND Corporation, a highly influential elite national security think tank funded directly by the Pentagon, has published a landmark report stating that prolonging the proxy war is actively harming the US and its allies<\/strong> and warning Washington that it should avoid \u201ca protracted conflict\u201d in Ukraine\u2026<\/p>\n

(The report<\/a>) starts by stating that the fighting represents \u201cthe most significant interstate conflict in decades, and its evolution will have major consequences\u201d for Washington, which includes US \u201cinterests\u201d being actively harmed.<\/strong> The report makes it very clear that while Ukrainians have been doing the fighting, and their cities have been \u201cflattened\u201d and \u201ceconomy decimated,\u201d these \u201cinterests\u201d are \u201cnot synonymous\u201d with Kiev\u2019s.\u201d (\u201cRand calls for swift end to war<\/a>\u201c, RT)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

While the report does not explicitly state that \u2018US interests (are) being harmed\u2019, it certainly infers that that is the case. Not surprisingly, the report doesn\u2019t mention any of the collateral damage from Washington\u2019s war on Russia, but, surely, that must have been foremost on the minds of the authors. After all, it is not the $100 billion or the provision of lethal weapons that is costing the US so dearly. It is the accelerating emergence of international coalitions and alternate institutions that has put the US empire on the fasttrack to ruin. <\/strong>We assume that the analysts at RAND see the same things that every other sentient being sees, that Washington\u2019s misguided conflagration with Moscow is a \u2018bridge-too-far\u2019 and that the blowback is going to be immense and excruciating. Hence, the urgency to end the war quickly. Here\u2019s a excerpt from the report that was posted in bold print halfway through the text:<\/p>\n

\u201cSince avoiding a long war is the highest priority after minimizing escalation risks, the United States should take steps that make an end to the conflict over the medium term more likely.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Interestingly, while the report details the main escalation risks, (The main risks include a broader war with NATO, a spillover of the conflict into other EU countries, and a nuclear war.) it fails to explain why exactly a \u2018long war\u2019 would be so damaging to the United States. We believe that this omission is intentional and that the authors do not want to concede that the backfiring of sanctions and the forming of anti-American foreign coalitions is clearly undermining US plans to maintain its grip on global power. Among elites, such talk is verboten.<\/strong> Here\u2019s how Chris Hedges summed it up in an article at Consortium News:<\/p>\n

The plan to reshape Europe and the global balance of power by degrading Russia is turning out to resemble the failed plan to reshape the Middle East. It is fueling a global food crisis and devastating Europe with near double-digit inflation. It is exposing the impotency, once again, of the United States, and the bankruptcy of its ruling oligarchs. As a counterweight to the United States, nations such as China, Russia, India, Brazil and Iran are severing themselves from the tyranny of the dollar as the world\u2019s reserve currency, a move that will trigger economic and social catastrophe in the United States.<\/strong> Washington is giving Ukraine ever more sophisticated weapons systems and billions upon billions in aid in a futile bid to save Ukraine but, more importantly, to save itself. (\u201cUkraine \u2014 The War That Went Wrong\u201d<\/a>, Chris Hedges, Consortium News)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Hedges sums it up perfectly. Washington\u2019s foolish intervention is clearing the way for the greatest strategic catastrophe in US history. And yet, even now, the vast majority of corporate and banking elites resolutely back the existing policy while shrugging off the obvious signs of failure. Case in point: The World Economic Forum posted a blanket statement of support for Ukraine on its website. Here it is:<\/p>\n

The essence of our organization is its belief in respect, dialogue, and collaborative and cooperative efforts. We therefore deeply condemn the aggression by Russia against Ukraine,<\/strong> the attacks and atrocities.<\/p>\n

Our full solidarity is with Ukraine\u2019s people and all those who are suffering innocently from this totally unacceptable war.<\/strong> We will do whatever is possible to help and actively support humanitarian and diplomatic efforts.
\nWe only hope that \u2013 in the longer-term \u2013 reason will prevail and that the space for bridge-building and reconciliation once more emerges.\u201d (Klaus Schwab and B\u00f8rge Brende, <\/a>World Economic Forum)<\/p>\n

No one should be surprised by this. Naturally, the globalists are going to come-down on the side of their expansionist wrecking-crew (NATO) instead of the world\u2019s biggest proponent of traditional values, borders and national sovereignty. That goes without saying. Even so, the Rand report suggests that support for the war is no longer unanimous among elites. And, since elites ultimately set the policy, there is now an increasing probability that the policy will change. We see this \u2018splintering of elite consensus\u2019 as the most positive development in the last 11 months. <\/strong>The only way the United States is going to change its approach in Ukraine is if a growing number of elites come to their senses and pull us back from the brink. We are hopeful that that will happen, but we\u2019re not sure that it will.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The least persuasive section of the entire report falls under the heading of: \u201cUS and Allied Commitments to Ukraine\u2019s Security\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The problem is easy to understand. The authors want to settle on a plan for providing security to Ukraine in order to incentivize negotiations with Russia. Unfortunately, Russia is not going to allow Ukraine to be a part of any western-backed security alliance, in fact, that is why Russia launched its invasion in the first place, to preempt Ukraine\u2019s membership in a hostile military alliance (NATO) linked to the United States.<\/strong> This is a touchy subject that will undoubtedly be an obstacle in any future negotiations. But it is a matter on which there can be no \u2018wiggle room\u2019. Ukraine \u2013or whatever is left of Ukraine\u2013 will be required to be permanently neutral and all the far-right extremists will have to be removed from the government, the military and the security services.<\/strong> Moscow will not pick Ukraine\u2019s leaders, but it will make sure that those leaders are neither Nazis nor linked to any far-right nationalist organization.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Will the USG Split into Warring Camps?<\/p><\/div>\n

As we said earlier, we think the RAND report indicates that elites are now divided on the issue of Ukraine. We think that is a positive development that could lead to negotiations and an end to the war. However, we shouldn\u2019t ignore the fact that even the most impartial analysis can tilt favorably in the direction of the group that provides the funding. And that could be true here, as well. Keep in mind, the RAND Corporation is a nonpartisan think tank that, according to retired USAF lieutenant colonel Karen Kwiatkowski:<\/p>\n

\u201cworks for the defense establishment, and were money to dry up there, the thinktank would not exist in it current form. It serves US government interests entirely, and is dependent upon them.\u201d (Lew Rockwell<\/a>)<\/p>\n

What this suggests is that the RAND report may represent the views of the Pentagon and the US Military establishment who believe the United States is racing headlong towards a direct conflagration with Russia. In other words, the report may be the first ideological broadsides against the neocons who run the State Department and the White House. We suspect this split between the War Department and \u2018State\u2019 will become more visible in the days ahead. We can only hope that the more judicious faction at the Pentagon prevails.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

America\u2019s most prestigious national security think-tank now appears to oppose the road toward war that Washington\u2019s elite and their globalist allies have taken. Mike Whitney wonders if it will be enough to prevent the looming clash with Russia<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121,"featured_media":74887,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,91,116],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-264561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Commentary","category-russia","category-ukraine"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=264561"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264561\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":264567,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264561\/revisions\/264567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=264561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=264561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=264561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}