{"id":261828,"date":"2022-11-30T09:48:23","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T09:48:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=261828"},"modified":"2022-12-02T07:24:11","modified_gmt":"2022-12-02T07:24:11","slug":"putins-remedy-a-fragmented-toothless-ukraine-separated-by-a-100-kilometer-wide-no-mans-land","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=261828","title":{"rendered":"Putin’s Remedy: A Fragmented, Toothless Ukraine Separated by a 100 Kilometer-Wide No-Man’s-Land"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mike Whitney \u2013 The Unz Review Nov 29, 2022<\/strong><\/h1>\n

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Map from John Helmer<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems probable that Russia will impose a solution.<\/strong> If, as expected, it becomes clear that the West can\u2019t or won\u2019t negotiate, it will behoove Russia to implement a maximalist solution. Or alternatively, Russia<\/strong> \u201cbargains\u201d by showing that it can create a dead zone in Western Ukraine as big as it likes.<\/strong> If Ukraine and its US minders don\u2019t come to their senses, that dead zone will be awfully big.\u201d Yves Smith,<\/a> Naked Capitalism<\/p>\n

How does this end?<\/p>\n

How does Russia create a \u201cneutral\u201d Ukraine that isn\u2019t armed-to-the-teeth by Moscow\u2019s enemies? How do they prevent Kiev from conducting joint-military drills with NATO or placing missile sites on Russia\u2019s border? How do they stop the Ukrainian Army from shelling ethnic Russians in the east or training far-right paramilitaries to kill as many Russians as possible? How does Putin change Ukraine into a good neighbor that doesn\u2019t pose a security threat and that doesn\u2019t fuel anti-Russian hatred and bigotry? And, finally, how does one resolve the conflict peacefully if one side refuses to negotiate with the other? Check out this clip from an article at Mint News:<\/p>\n

\u201cUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday signed a decree formally announcing the \u201cimpossible\u201d prospect of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cHe (Putin) does not know what dignity and honesty are. Therefore, we are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia,\u201d Zelensky said on Friday. (Mint News)<\/a><\/p>\n

The fact that Zelensky will not negotiate with Putin does not mean there will be no settlement. It just means that Zelensky will have no voice in the outcome. As the more powerful country, it has always been within Russia\u2019s ability to impose a settlement that achieves its basic national security objectives, and that is precisely what Putin will do. The settlement will not be ideal nor will it completely end the hostilities, but it will provide a layer of protection from Russia\u2019s enemies<\/strong> which is the best that can be hoped for given the circumstances. Regrettably, the settlement will also terminate Ukraine\u2019s existence as a viable, contiguous state<\/strong>. And\u2013 after Russia has finished its special military operation\u2013 Ukraine will face a dismal future as a deindustrialized wastelands that is entirely dependent on its allies in the west for its survival.<\/p>\n

Here is an excerpt from an article by Moscow-based journalist John Helmer who thinks the Russian army will clear a vast area of central Ukraine in its upcoming winter offensive, and that much of that land will become part of a 100 kilometer-wide Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that will protect Russia from Ukrainian missile and artillery attacks.<\/strong> As Helmer notes, the model for this military-imposed settlement is \u201cthe armistice of Panmunjom of July 27, 1953, which ended the Korean War\u2026. On the ground inside the UDZ (Ukraine Demilitarized Zone) there may be no electricity, no people, nothing except for the means to monitor and enforce the terms of the armistice.<\/strong>\u201d Here\u2019s more from Helmer:<\/p>\n

Military source:\u2026. Once the destruction of these targets has been completed, the remnants of the infrastructure will be mined, and the area planted with sensing devices. The armies will then begin a rapid, staged withdrawal behind Russian lines where the process of fortification and entrenchment has already begun.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cCivilians and disarmed Ukrainian troops \u2013 except for the Ukro-Nazi units \u2014 will be allotted one or two corridors through which they will be permitted to leave the zone. They\u2019d better not dawdle.\u201d\u2026<\/p>\n

The sources agree there will be a new military demarcation line before the thaw next spring<\/strong>; they differ on how it is being drawn now, and how it will look next April. \u201cFor now the line will be on the Dnieper with the zone extending from the west bank into the rump Ukraine<\/strong> \u2013 my guess is at a depth of not less than 100km. This will put Russian territory out of the range of most Ukrainian artillery. A 100km-deep zone will also give the Russian forces time to detect and intercept anything in flight\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the northern sector <\/strong>\u2013 that\u2019s from Kramatorsk and Slovyansk to Kharkov\u2026 these are garrisons and staging areas of hate on or near to Russia\u2019s borders; they will not be spared \u2026.(and) have qualified them for de-electrification, de-population, and de-nazification.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cThe point to emphasize, especially in the Russian operations in the north\u2026 will not seize and hold territory. \u2026 The idea won\u2019t be to occupy the territory, let alone administer it, for any length of time. The goal will be to destroy enemies who raise their heads and the infrastructure they rely on; lay mines and sensors; and then withdraw.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cOnce the assigned transportation and logistics nodes have been taken, the job of destroying them by engineer units will begin. Bridges, roads, railroads, marshalling yards, rolling stock, airfields, fuel storage and dispensaries, electrical substations, transmission and communications towers, central offices, warehouses, laydown areas, agricultural equipment \u2013 anything that could possibly be used to support the Ukrainian-NATO effort east of the zone\u2019s western border will be destroyed. <\/strong>That will be also be the ground forces\u2019 job \u2013 more comprehensive and thorough than missile and drone strikes can achieve.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCivilians and disarmed fighters, without their motorized equipment, will be permitted to walk out of the zone to specially prepared buses (as Surovikin supervised in Syria) with whatever they can carry on their backs\u2026. Anyone who chooses to stay inside the zone will be informed explicitly via radio, flyers, and loudspeaker that they are considered enemy combatants and will be targeted accordingly. After a prescribed amount of time, the \u2018golden bridges\u2019 for the exiting population will be destroyed<\/strong>. For those remaining they will have had no power, sanitation, or communications \u2026\u201d(\u201cUkraine Armistice\u2013 How the UDZ of 2023 will separate the Armies like the Korean DMZ of 1953\u201d<\/a>, John Helmer, Dances With Bears<\/p>\n

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Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

Map from John Helmer<\/a><\/p>\n

Helmer sums it up perfectly. Putin is going to create a vast, uninhabitable no-man\u2019s-land in the center of Ukraine that will separate east from west and end Ukraine\u2019s existence as a viable, contiguous state.<\/strong> This is what a military-imposed settlement looks like. It\u2019s not ideal and it doesn\u2019t necessarily stop all the fighting, but it does address Russia\u2019s basic security requirements which Washington chose to ignore.<\/p>\n

Rest assured, that Washington will not like this settlement and will never agree to the new borders<\/strong>. But the United States will not have the final say-so in this matter and that is extremely important, because Washington\u2019s role as the \u201cguarantor of global security\u201d is now a thing of the past. Russia is going to decide Ukraine\u2019s borders and that\u2019s just the way it\u2019s going to be. <\/strong>So, yes, we can expect to hear the gnashing of teeth at NATO Headquarters and the UN and at the White House, but to little effect. The matter is settled unless, of course, the US and NATO want to commit ground forces to the conflict which, we think, will precipitate a split in NATO that will inevitably lead to its collapse. Either way, Ukraine\u2019s fate is going to be decided in Moscow not Washington, and that reality is going to have a significant impact of the distribution of global power. There\u2019s a new sheriff in town and he is definitely not an American.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: We think Helmer\u2019s analysis is the most probable scenario going forward. Putin has showed admirable restraint to this point, but after 9 months of pointless drudgery and carnage, it\u2019s time to wrap this thing up. Moscow has always had a sledgehammer in its toolkit and now it\u2019s going to use it<\/strong>. We would have preferred that it didn\u2019t end this way, but there\u2019s no sense in crying over spilt milk. Washington wanted to stretch this war out for as long as possible to bleed Russia dry so it couldn\u2019t project power beyond its borders or obstruct US plans to \u201cpivot to Asia\u201d. But Putin foiled that plan. He didn\u2019t step into Washington\u2019s trap and he\u2019s not going to pump blood and money down a black hole. He\u2019s going to settle this matter once-and-for-all and be done with it<\/strong>. This is from an interview with Colonel Douglas MacGregor:<\/p>\n

\u201cThis entire conflict could have been avoided had we simply recognized Moscow\u2019s legitimate interests in what happens in Ukraine<\/strong>\u2026. What happens in Ukraine is important to Russians\u2026. So, we could have intervened early on and said, \u2018Let\u2019s have a ceasefire and talk\u2019, in fact, we could have listened to the Russians for the last 10 or 20 years about their concerns about what was happening inside Ukraine.<\/strong> And, I think now we see with the Zelensky regime\u2013 a very dangerous government that is incurably hostile to Russia (and) that responds exclusively to instructions from Washington\u2013 that has decided that it wants to fatally weaken Russia in any way possible\u2026 The solution to this is \u2013not to join this futile and pointlessly destructive war with Moscow\u2013 (but) to get some sense into peoples\u2019 minds in the government in Kiev.\u201d<\/strong> Colonel Douglas MacGregor,<\/a> \u201cUkraine is about to be Annihilated\u201d, You Tube; 2:10 minute-mark<\/p>\n