{"id":261051,"date":"2022-11-12T07:50:53","date_gmt":"2022-11-12T07:50:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=261051"},"modified":"2022-11-14T08:20:45","modified_gmt":"2022-11-14T08:20:45","slug":"sun-tzu-walks-into-a-kherson-bar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=261051","title":{"rendered":"Sun Tzu Walks Into a Kherson Bar\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pepe Escobar \u2013 Strategic Review Nov 10, 2022<\/strong><\/h1>\n

The announcement of the Kherson Retreat may have signaled one of the gloomiest days of the Russian Federation since 1991.<\/p>\n

Leaving the right bank of the Dnieper to set up a defense line on the left bank may spell out total military sense. General Armageddon himself, since his first day on the job, had hinted this might have been inevitable.<\/p>\n

As it stands in the chessboard, Kherson is in the \u201cwrong\u201d side of the Dnieper. All residents of Kherson Oblast \u2013 115,000 people in total \u2013 who wanted to be relocated to safer latitudes have been evacuated from the right bank.<\/p>\n

General Armageddon knew that was inevitable for several reasons:<\/p>\n

no mobilization after the initial SMO plans hit the dust; destruction of strategic bridges across the Dnieper \u2013 complete with a three-month methodical Ukrainian pounding of bridges, ferries, pontoons and piers; no second bridgehead to the north of Kherson or to the west (towards Odessa or Nikolaev) to conduct an offensive.<\/p>\n

And then, the most important reason: massive weaponization coupled with NATO de facto running the war translated into enormous Western superiority in reconnaissance, communications and command and control.<\/p>\n

In the end, the Kherson Retreat may be a relatively minor tactical loss. Yet politically, it\u2019s an unmitigated disaster, a devastating embarrassment.<\/p>\n

Kherson is a Russian city. Russians have lost \u2013 even if temporarily \u2013 the capital of a brand new territory attached to the Federation. Russian public opinion will have tremendous problems absorbing the news.<\/p>\n

The list of negatives is considerable. Kiev forces secure their flank and may free up forces to go against Donbass. Weaponizing by the collective West gets a major boost. HIMARS can now potentially strike targets in Crimea.<\/p>\n

The optics are horrendous. Russia\u2019s image across the Global South is severely tarnished; after all, this move amounts to abandoning Russian territory \u2013 while serial Ukrainian war crimes instantly disappear from the major \u201cnarrative\u201d.<\/p>\n

At a minimum, the Russians a long time ago should have reinforced their major strategic advantage bridgehead on the west side of the Dnieper so that it could hold \u2013 short of a widely forecasted Kakhovka Dam flood. And yet the Russians also ignored the dam bombing threat for months. That spells out terrible planning.<\/p>\n

Now Russian forces will have to conquer Kherson all over again. And in parallel stabilize the frontlines; draw definitive borders; and then strive to \u201cdemilitarize\u201d Ukrainian offensives for good, either via negotiation or carpet bombing.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s quite revealing that an array of NATO intel types, from analysts to retired Generals, are suspicious of General Armageddon\u2019s move: they see it as an elaborate trap, or as a French military analyst put it, \u201ca massive deception operation\u201d. Classic Sun Tzu. That has been duly incorporated as the official Ukrainian narrative.<\/p>\n

So, to quote Twin Peaks, that American pop culture subversive classic, \u201cthe owls are not what they seem\u201d. If that\u2019s the case, General Armageddon would be looking to severely overstretch Ukrainian supply lines; seduce them into exposure; and then engage in a massive turkey shoot.<\/p>\n

So it\u2019s either Sun Tzu; or a deal is in the wings, coinciding with the G20 next week in Bali.<\/p>\n

The art of the deal<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Well, some sort of deal seems to have been struck between Jake Sullivan and Patrushev.<\/p>\n

No one really knows the details, even those with access to flamboyant 5th Column informants in Kiev. But yes \u2013 the deal seems to include Kherson. Russia would keep Donbass but not advance towards Kharkov and Odessa. And NATO expansion would be definitely frozen. A minimalist deal.<\/p>\n

That would explain why Patrushev was able to board a plane to Tehran simultaneous to the announcement of the Kherson Retreat, and take care, quite relaxed, of very important strategic partnership business with Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council.<\/p>\n

The deal may have also been the inbuilt \u201csecret\u201d in Maria Zakharova\u2019s announcement that \u201cwe\u2019re ready for negotiations\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Russians will leave the Dnieper riverbank in a managed military retreat. That would not be possible without managed military-to-military negotiations.<\/p>\n

These back channel negotiations have been going on for weeks. The messenger is Saudi Arabia. The US aim, in the short term, would be towards a sort of Minsk 3 accord \u2013 with Istanbul\/Riyadh attached.<\/p>\n

No one is paying the slightest attention to coke clown Zelensky. Sullivan went to Kiev to present a fait accompli \u2013 of sorts.<\/p>\n

The Dnieper will be \u2013 in thesis \u2013 the settled and negotiated frontline.<\/p>\n

Kiev would have to swallow a frozen line of contact in Zaporizhye, Donetsk and Lugansk \u2013 with Kiev receiving electricity from Zaporozhye, hence cease shelling its infrastructure.<\/p>\n

The US would come up with a loan of $50 billion plus part of the confiscated \u2013 i.e. stolen \u2013 Russian assets to \u201crebuild\u201d Ukraine. Kiev would receive modern air defense systems.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no doubt Moscow will not go along with any of these provisions.<\/p>\n

Note that all this coincides with the outcome of the US elections \u2013 where the Dems did not exactly lose.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile Russia is accumulating more and more gains in the battle for Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

There are no illusions whatsoever in Moscow that this crypto-Minsk 3 would be respected by the \u201cnon-agreement capable\u201d Empire.<\/p>\n

Jake Sullivan is a 45-year-old lawyer with zero strategic background and \u201cexperience\u201d amounting to campaigning for Hillary Clinton. Patrushev can eat him for breakfast, lunch, dinner and late night snack \u2013 and vaguely \u201cagree\u201d to anything.<\/p>\n

So why are the Americans desperate to offer a deal? Because they may be sensing the next Russian move with the arrival of General Winter should be capable of conclusively winning the war on Moscow\u2019s terms. That would include slamming the Polish border shut via a long arrow move from Belarus downwards. With weaponizing supply lines cut, Kiev\u2019s fate is sealed.<\/p>\n

Deal or no deal, General Winter is coming to town \u2013 ready to entertain his guest of honor Sun Tzu with so many new dishes at their dinner table.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pepe Escobar argues that the U.S. is ready to offer a deal on Ukraine because Washington suspects that with the arrival of General Winter Russia will be capable of conclusively winning the war on its own terms. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":261053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,91,116],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-261051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Commentary","category-russia","category-ukraine"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=261051"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261051\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":261066,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261051\/revisions\/261066"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/261053"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=261051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=261051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=261051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}