{"id":253589,"date":"2022-05-17T16:29:17","date_gmt":"2022-05-17T16:29:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=253589"},"modified":"2022-05-19T05:58:48","modified_gmt":"2022-05-19T05:58:48","slug":"scott-ritters-switcheroo-why-i-radically-changed-my-overall-assessment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=253589","title":{"rendered":"Scott Ritter\u2019s Switcheroo: &#8220;Why I Radically Changed My Overall Assessment&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Mike Whitney \u2013 The Unz Review May 16, 2022<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/baba-z-praporom-6-600x850-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-253592\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/baba-z-praporom-6-600x850-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"425\" \/><\/a>On Sunday, the foreign policy blogs were abuzz with the news that Scott Ritter had done \u201can about-face in his assessment of the war\u201d. It appears that the ex-Marine had examined recent developments in Ukraine and concluded that it\u2019s going to be much harder for Russia to win than he had originally thought..<\/p>\n<p>Naturally, the news of Ritter\u2019s reversal sent shockwaves across the internet, especially among the people who follow events in Ukraine closely and who greatly admire his even-handed analysis. Some of these people clearly felt betrayed by Ritter\u2019s comments and blasted him as a \u201cconcern troll\u201d which refers to a person who feigns sympathy while actually feeling the opposite. This is a terrible way to treat a guy who\u2019s devoted so much of his time to informing people about an issue of which they might know very little without his research. Besides, Ritter is no hypocrite. Quite the contrary.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s fair to say, however, that Ritter has probably been the most outspoken proponent of the \u201cRussia is winning\u201d theory, a hypothesis that runs counter to everything we read in the legacy media or see on the cable news channels. Unfortunately, Ritter\u2019s views on the matter have changed dramatically, and that\u2019s due almost entirely to developments on the ground. As Ritter candidly admits, <strong>\u201cThe military aid the west is providing to Ukraine is changing the dynamic and if Russia doesn\u2019t find a way to address this meaningfully\u2026 the conflict will never end.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s quite a turnaround from a statement he made just weeks earlier that, \u201cRussia is winning the war, and winning it decisively.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So, what changed? What are the so-called developments that led to Ritter\u2019s volte-face?<\/p>\n<p>Here are a few excerpts from the interview that triggered the fracas. Ritter was joined by Ray McGovern and host Garland Nixon on <strong>Saturday Morning Live<\/strong>. (The quotes are copied from video. I accept blame for any mistakes.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>Scott Ritter<\/strong> (start at 47:50 minute mark) \u2014 \u201cThe thing that frustrates me\u2026 is that, <strong>it was my assessment that it would be very hard for Ukraine to absorb this new equipment and material <\/strong>(Material\u2013 the additional lethal weapons that have recently been shipped to Ukraine) <strong>but the howitzers are already operating against Russia.<\/strong> <strong>(And) They are having an effect in the Kharkov region.<\/strong> Not all 90 of them, but they have several batteries in place that are being used.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">How did this happen?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">And <strong>this is why I have radically changed my overall assessment, because I had been operating on the assumption that Russia would be able to interdict the vast majority of this equipment, but Russia has shown itself unable or unwilling to do this and\u2013 as a result\u2013 the Ukrainians are having meaningful impact on the battlefield. <\/strong>Not in the areas of main contention, like the Donbass, but on the periphery. This is why Russia has carried out tactical withdrawals north of Kharkov, because in order to match Ukraine\u2019s best capabilities, Russia would have to divert resources from its main effort which Russia has decided not to do. So, they are re-configuring the battlefield. (trading land in different areas)\u2026(\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=m4SlSILtlpc\">Saturday Morning Live with Scott Ritter and Ray McGovern,<\/a> You Tube)<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/m4SlSILtlpc\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n&#8212;<\/div>\n<p>So, while Ritter\u2019s sympathies have not changed in the slightest, it\u2019s clear that his analysis has. At first, he didn\u2019t think that the deluge of lethal weaponry would affect the outcome of the war. Now he\u2019s not so sure. It\u2019s a honest mistake but, still, he needed to \u2018come clean\u2019 and explain the factors that contributed to his U-turn. Here\u2019s more from the same interview:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>Scott Ritter\u2013 This is a transformative moment in the war, because what it means is that demilitarization is not taking place.<\/strong> For all the forces Russia is destroying in the east, <strong>Ukraine is rebuilding significant capability<\/strong> (in the west) I liken this to Moscow in December 1941, when the Germans were moving towards Moscow and the Russians just started throwing things at them., sacrificing everything to slow the German offensive. until General Winter and the combination of Siberian divisions gave them the ability to counterattack. <strong>The Germans were bled white and they were stopped and turned back. If Russia doesn\u2019t change the calculation, then that is the trajectory we are heading on.,<\/strong> because 200,000 troops\u2013however capable they may be, are only capable of doing so much. And the fighting that\u2019s taking place right now \u2013even though it is slaughtering Ukrainians\u2013 it isn\u2019t cost free to the Russians. They\u2019re losing equipment, they\u2019re losing men, they\u2019re losing material, and unless Putin mobilizes or transfers forces in, those aren\u2019t being replaced. So, instead of having 200,000 online, Russia might have 180,000 men. And if you don\u2019t think removing 20,000 men doesn\u2019t change the options available to the Russian leadership, then you don\u2019t know anything about war.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">So, I believe Russia is going to win in the east, they are grinding them down as we speak, they are slaughtering them; the amount of death and destruction that is being dealt to the Ukrainians is unimaginable, but I believe <strong>the Ukrainians are willing to take these losses in order to buy time to reconstitute a military that will challenge Russia <\/strong>Because <strong>unless Russia is willing to jump across the Dnieper River and head into western Ukraine where it can eliminate the strategic depth that the Ukrainians are being gifted by the Russians, then demilitarization of Ukraine is not going to take place. <\/strong>It can\u2019t take place when tens of billions of dollars of equipment is pouring in and Russia is not able to interdict it. <strong>The fact that these advanced howitzers are operating on the front lines right now, shows there\u2019s something wrong with the Russian methodology. And\u2013unless they alter that methodology\u2013 I think we\u2019re in for a very long summer.<\/strong>\u201d (\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=m4SlSILtlpc\">Saturday Morning Live with Scott Ritter and Ray McGovern,<\/a> You Tube)<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to grasp what Ritter is saying here. Is he actually suggesting that Putin expand the current \u201cspecial operation\u201d into a full-blown World War? At one point, he casually opines that Russia will have to mobilize 1 and a half million men (Note: Russia currently only has 200,000 in Ukraine) if they want to prevail in Ukraine and then move on to Finland. It\u2019s impossible to tell by Ritter\u2019s tone whether he is simply making an objective observation of \u2018what is needed\u2019 to succeed or if he is making an explicit recommendation that he thinks Russia\u2019s High Command should consider. I can\u2019t answer that. Here\u2019s more from the interview:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>Scott Ritter<\/strong>(5:20 mark)\u2013 <strong>\u201cThe idea that the Ukrainian military has been eliminated as an effective fighting force is a flawed concept, and unless Russia broadens its special military operation\u2013 probably to the point of changing it form a special military operation to a war which includes the totality of Ukrainian battle-space\u2013(then) this is a conflict that is dangerously close to becoming unwinnable by Russia<\/strong> which means that while they can complete their objectives in the east with 200,000 troops, they aren\u2019t able to prevent Ukraine from rearming and reequipping when Ukraine is being provided with tens of billions of dollars of equipment by NATO \u2014<strong>Whenever you provide your enemy with \u201csafe space\u201d to rebuild military capability, you\u2019re never going to win<\/strong>. \u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Yes, Russia is winning in the east which is what they said their objective was all along. And they are accomplishing that. That is the special Military Operation. But <strong>now we\u2019re talking about \u201cwar\u201d, and I don\u2019t think Russia has made that transition yet. <\/strong>This is a defacto proxy war between the west and Russia using Ukrainian forces as NATO\u2019s sword. The object of this is to \u201cbleed Russia dry\u201d. And if Russia doesn\u2019t change the dynamic, Russia will be bled dry.<strong>\u201d Zelensky has indicated that he\u2019s willing to mobilize a million people, at a time when the west is ready to provide the funding and equipment to turn those million men into a real military threat. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">So, I see <strong>what has been happening in the last few weeks as being decisive. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>The military aid the west is providing is changing the dynamic and if Russia doesn\u2019t find a way to address this meaningfully, and to eliminate it as a military capability\u2026 then the conflict will never end.\u201d (\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=m4SlSILtlpc\">Saturday Morning Live with Scott Ritter and Ray McGovern,<\/a> You Tube) <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There it is from the horse\u2019s mouth. Readers will have to draw their own conclusions.<\/p>\n<p>IMHO, Scott Ritter is gradually adjusting to the idea that the conflict in Ukraine is not a just regional skirmish between two quarrelsome neighbors, nor is it a proxy-war between NATO and Russia. No. Ukraine is the first phase of a broader plan for crushing Russia, collapsing its economy, removing its leaders, seizing its natural resources, splintering its territory, and projecting US power across Central Asia to the Pacific Rim. Ukraine is about hegemony, empire, and pure, unalloyed power. Most important, Ukraine is the first battle in a Third World War, a war that was concocted and launched by Washington to ensure another unchallenged century of American primacy.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.unz.com\/mwhitney\/scott-ritters-switcheroo-why-i-radically-changed-my-overall-assessment\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While Ritter\u2019s sympathies haven\u2019t changed his assessment of the impact that Western weapons supplies will have on the conflict has. In his view this is no longer a regional conflict but the potential opening phase of WWIII <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,91,116],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-253589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-Commentary","category-russia","category-ukraine"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=253589"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253589\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":253595,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253589\/revisions\/253595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=253589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=253589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=253589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}