{"id":215515,"date":"2020-10-25T08:19:46","date_gmt":"2020-10-25T08:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=215515"},"modified":"2020-10-28T05:32:24","modified_gmt":"2020-10-28T05:32:24","slug":"professor-lockdown-warns-people-will-catch-virus-and-die-if-they-are-allowed-to-mix-on-christmas-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=215515","title":{"rendered":"‘Professor Lockdown’ warns ‘people WILL catch virus and die’ if they are allowed to mix on Christmas Day"},"content":{"rendered":"

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science<\/a><\/h2>\n

Posted by Andrew \u2013statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu May 8, 2020<\/strong><\/h3>\n

John Fund writes<\/a><\/strong><\/span>:<\/span><\/p>\n

[Imperial College epidemiologist Neil] Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson\u2019s advice, said a \u201creasonable worst-case scenario\u201d was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.<\/span><\/p>\n

So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?<\/span><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know. It\u2019s a good question. When Ferguson was in the news a few months ago, why wasn\u2019t there more discussion of his atrocious track record? Or was his track record not so bad? A google search turned up this<\/a> op-ed by Bob Ward referring to Ferguson\u2019s conclusions as \u201cevidence that Britain\u2019s political-media complex finds too difficult to accept.\u201d Regarding the foot-and-mouth-disease thing, Ward writes, \u201cFerguson received an OBE in recognition for his important role in the crisis, or that he was afterwards elected a fellow of the prestigious Academy of Medical Sciences.\u201d Those sorts of awards don\u2019t cut much ice with me\u2014they remind me too much of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences\u2014but maybe there\u2019s more of the story I haven\u2019t heard.<\/span><\/p>\n

I guess I\u2019d have to see the exact quotes that are being referred to in the paragraphs excerpted above. For example, what did Ferguson exactly say when he \u201cpredicted that up to 150,000 people could die\u201d of foot-and-mouth disease. Did he say, \u201cI expect it will be under 200 deaths if we cull the herds, but otherwise it could be up to 2000 or more, and worst case it could even be as high as 150,000?\u201d Or did he flat out say, \u201c150,000, baby! Buy your gravestone now while supplies last.\u201d? I wanna see the quotes.<\/span><\/p>\n

But, if Ferguson really did have a series of previous errors, then, yeah, Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?<\/span><\/p>\n

Continues \u2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Comment \u2013 Oct 24, 2020<\/h2>\n
\"\"<\/a>

Professor Neil Ferguson. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

In answer to the above, governments still listen to Prof Ferguson but they don\u2019t necessarily base their policies on what he says. Instead, they are using his \u201cadvice\u201d to justify policies that have already been decided on. There is a difference.<\/h5>\n
Professor Ferguson is simply providing the necessary statistical cover with which to rationalize pre-determined\u00a0 policies. In the eyes of the ill-informed layman, those policies might have seemed unacceptable were it not for the horrific statistical projections provided by Ferguson. These projections are presented as a scary alternative scenario for the ill-informed should they not abide by official directives.<\/h5>\n
Governments around the world are being instructed on what to do and the likes of Professor Ferguson are simply providing statistical window dressing to justify their actions. Ed.<\/h5>\n

‘Professor Lockdown’ warns ‘people WILL catch virus and die’ if they are allowed to mix on Christmas Day<\/h2>\n

Katie Weston \u2013 Mail Online Oct 24, 2020<\/h3>\n

Britain has recorded 23,012 more Covid-19 cases, up 2,482 from yesterday, as Professor Neil Ferguson warns people ‘will catch the virus and die’ if they are allowed to mix on Christmas Day.<\/span><\/p>\n

There were 174 deaths within 28 days of a positive test, down from 224 on Friday, including 33 deaths in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and 141 fatalities in England.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile Professor Ferguson,\u00a0whose modelling led to the original lockdown in March, said earlier today that\u00a0schools may have to be closed to older pupils\u00a0if restrictions on households mixing fail to stem the rise of infections, and that it will be a\u00a0‘political judgement’ as to whether regulations are relaxed over the festive season.<\/span><\/p>\n

He told\u00a0BBC<\/strong><\/a> Radio 4’s Today Programme:\u00a0‘It risks some transmission and there will be consequences of that. Some people will die because of getting infected on that day.<\/span><\/p>\n

‘But if it is only one or two days the impact is likely to be limited. So that is really a political judgment about the cost versus the benefits.’<\/span><\/p>\n

It follows the prospects for a family Christmas descending into further confusion yesterday, as Downing Street insisted that relatives should be able to gather – but a minister warned it will not be ‘normal’.<\/span><\/p>\n

Professor Ferguson added: ‘That (banning households mixing) should have a significant effect but as yet we have been unable to see it definitively.<\/span><\/p>\n

‘If we go beyond that there is a limit to what we can do in terms of reducing contacts, short of starting to target, for instance, the older years in schools and sixth form colleges where we know older teenagers are able to transmit as adults.<\/span><\/p>\n

Continues \u2026<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Another grim assessment from Prof Neil Ferguson, but as the record show he has been consistently wrong. So why do governments even listen to him? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-215515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-Commentary","category-coronavirus"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/215515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=215515"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/215515\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":215546,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/215515\/revisions\/215546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=215515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=215515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=215515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}