{"id":213272,"date":"2020-09-09T07:19:47","date_gmt":"2020-09-09T07:19:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=213272"},"modified":"2020-09-11T07:58:27","modified_gmt":"2020-09-11T07:58:27","slug":"covid-why-terminology-really-really-matters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=213272","title":{"rendered":"COVID \u2013 why terminology really, really matters"},"content":{"rendered":"

[And the consequences of getting it horribly wrong]<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Dr Malcolm Kendrick \u2013 Scottish Author, Doctor, Sceptic Sept 4, 2020<\/strong><\/h1>\n
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Dr Malcolm Kendrick. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

When is a case not a case?<\/span><\/p>\n

Since the start of the COVID pandemic I have watched almost everyone get mission critical things wrong. In some ways this is not surprising. Medical terminology is horribly imprecise, and often poorly understood. In calmer times such things are only of interest to research geeks like me. Were they talking about CVD, or CHD?<\/span><\/p>\n

However, right now, it really, really, matters. Specifically, with regards to the term COVID \u2018cases.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Every day we are informed of a worrying rise in COVID cases in country after country, region after region, city after city. Portugal, France, Leicester, Bolton. Panic, lockdown, quarantine. In France the number of reported cases is now as high as it was at the peak of the epidemic. Over 5,000, on the first of September.<\/span><\/p>\n

But what does this actually mean? Just to keep the focus on France for a moment. On March 26th<\/sup>, just before their deaths peaked, there were 3,900 hundred \u2018cases\u2019. Fourteen days later, there were 1,400 deaths. So, using a widely accepted figure, which is a delay of around two weeks between diagnoses and death, 36% of cases died.<\/span><\/p>\n

In stark contrast, on August 16th<\/sup>, there were 3,000 cases. Fourteen days later there were 26 deaths. \u00a0Which means that, in March, 36% of \u2018cases\u2019 died. In August 0.8% of \u2018cases\u2019 died. This, in turn, means that COVID was 45 times as deadly in March, as it was in August?<\/span><\/p>\n

This seems extremely unlikely. In fact, it is so unlikely that it is, in fact, complete rubbish. What we have is a combination of nonsense figures which, added together, create nonsense squared. Or nonsense to the power ten.<\/span><\/p>\n

To start with, we have the mangling of the concept of a \u2018case\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

Previously, in the world of infectious diseases, it has been accepted that a \u2018case\u2019 represents someone with symptoms, usually severe symptoms, usually severe enough to be admitted to hospital. Here, from Wikipedia\u2026. yes, I know, but on this sort of stuff they are a good resource.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018In epidemiology, a <\/em>case<\/em><\/strong> fatality rate (CFR) \u2014 sometimes called <\/em>case<\/em><\/strong> fatality risk or disease lethality \u2014 is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of <\/em>symptomatic<\/em><\/strong> people diagnosed with the disease.\u2019 1<\/sup> <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Note the word symptomatic i.e. someone with symptoms.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, now we stick a swab up someone\u2019s nose, who feels completely well, or very mildly ill. We find that they have some COVID particles lodged up there, and we call them a case of COVID. Sigh, thud!<\/span><\/p>\n

A symptomless, or even mildly symptomatic positive swab is not<\/em> a case. Never, in recorded history, has this been true. However, now we have an almost unquestioned acceptance that a positive swab represents a case<\/em> of COVID. This is then parroted on all the news channels as if it were gospel.<\/span><\/p>\n

I note that, at last, some people are beginning to question how it can be that, whilst cases are going up and up, deaths are going down, and down.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is even the case in Sweden, which seems to be the final bastion of people with functioning brains. However, even they seem surprised by this dichotomy. In the first two weeks of August they had 4,152 positive swabs. Yet, in the last two weeks of August, they had a mere 14 deaths (one a day, on average).<\/span><\/p>\n

That represents 1 death for every 300 positive swabs or, as the mainstream media insists on calling them, positive \u2018cases\u2019. Which, currently, represent a case<\/strong> fatality rate of 0.33%. Just to compare that with something similar, the case fatality rate of swine flu (HIN1),\u00a0 was 0.5%. 2<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, lo and behold, COVID is a less severe infection than swine flu \u2013 the pandemic that never was. That\u2019s what these figures appear to tell us. They tell us almost exactly the same in France where they \u2018appear\u2019 to have a current case fatality rate of 0.4%.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, if you look at the figures from around the world, they are very different. As I write this there have been, according to the WHO, 25 million cases and 850,000 deaths. That is a case<\/strong> fatality rate of more than 3%. Ten times as high.<\/span><\/p>\n

Why are these figures so all over the place? It is because we are using horribly inaccurate terminology. We are comparing apples with pomegranates to tell us how many bananas we have. Our experts are, essentially, talking gibberish, and the mainstream media is lapping it up. They are defining asymptomatic swabs as cases, and no-one is calling them out on it. Why?<\/span><\/p>\n

Because\u2026 because they are frightened of looking stupid? Primarily, I believe, because they also have no idea what a case might actually be So, it all sounds quite reasonable to them.<\/span><\/p>\n

The good news<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

However, moving on from that nonsense, there is some extremely good news buried in here. Which I am going to try and explain. It goes as follows.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the start of the epidemic, the only people being tested were those who were being admitted to hospital, who were seriously ill. Many of them died. Which is why, in France, there was this very sharp, initial case<\/strong> fatality rate of 35%. In the UK the initial case fatality rate was I think 14%. Last time I looked at the UK figures, the case fatality was 5%, and falling fast.<\/span><\/p>\n

This fall has occurred, and will occur everywhere in the World, because as you increase your testing, you pick up more and more people with less severe symptoms. People who are far less likely to die. The more you test, the more the case fatality rate falls.<\/span><\/p>\n

It falls even more dramatically when you start to test people who have no symptoms at all. In fact, as you broaden your testing net, something else very important happens. You gradually move from looking at the case<\/strong> fatality rate to the infection<\/strong> fatality rate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The infection<\/strong> fatality rate is the measure of how many people who are infected [even those without symptoms, or very mild symptoms] who then die. This is the <\/em>critical figure to know because it gives you an accurate assessment of the total number of deaths you are likely to see.<\/span><\/p>\n

IFR x population of a country x % of population infected = total number of deaths (total mortality)<\/span><\/p>\n

So, where have we got to. Well, although the case fatality rate in the UK still currently stands at 5%, because it is dragged up by the 14% rate we had at the start. If we look at the more recent figures things have changed very dramatically.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the first two weeks of August there were 13,996 positive swabs in the UK. In the second two weeks of August there were 129 deaths. If you consider every positive swab to be a case, this represents a case<\/strong> fatality rate of 0.9%. Around one fifteenth of that seen at the start.<\/span><\/p>\n

I think you can clearly see a direction of travel here.<\/span><\/p>\n