{"id":206368,"date":"2020-04-28T08:05:05","date_gmt":"2020-04-28T08:05:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=206368"},"modified":"2020-05-01T06:51:33","modified_gmt":"2020-05-01T06:51:33","slug":"if-sweden-succeeds-lockdowns-will-all-have-been-for-nothing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=206368","title":{"rendered":"If Sweden Succeeds, Lockdowns Will All Have Been for Nothing"},"content":{"rendered":"

Daniel Hannan \u2013 The Daily Telegraph.co.uk April 25, 2020<\/h1>\n
\"\"<\/a>

Sweden has taken a much more relaxed approach to Coronavirus and in the process limited its economic impact. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

When foreign commentators discuss Sweden\u2019s light-touch response to Covid-19, they tend to adopt an affronted tone.<\/strong> Which is, on the surface, surprising.<\/span> You\u2019d think everyone would be willing the Nordic country to succeed.<\/span> After all, if<\/span>\u00a0Sweden can come through<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0the epidemic without leaving a smoking crater where its economy used to be, there is hope for the rest of the world.<\/span> So far, many signs appear encouraging.<\/span> The disease seems to be following the same basic trajectory in Sweden as elsewhere.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Although we must wait for complete data, modelling by country\u2019s authorities suggests that the infection rate in Stockholm peaked on 8 April.<\/span> If so, we need to consider<\/span> the implication, namely that, once basic hygiene and distancing measures are in place, tightening the screw further perhaps makes little difference.<\/span><\/strong> Which would be good news for the rest of us.<\/span> Adopting Sweden\u2019s more laissez-faire response might not restore our economies to full health, but it would at least allow us to bring them out of their induced comas.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Sweden is, broadly speaking, sticking to the approach that Britain followed in the week before the lockdown<\/span><\/strong> \u2013 the approach, indeed, that our strategists had wargamed in cooler-headed times.<\/span> On 23 March, in an abrupt shift,<\/span><\/strong> Britain\u2019s shops were closed and its people told to stay at home.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

What had changed?<\/span> Was it the hysterical media demand for a Continental-style crackdown?<\/span> Or the furious reaction to people visiting beauty spots on Mothering Sunday?<\/span> Or was it the<\/span>\u00a0Imperial College model<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/a>, published a few days earlier, which warned of hundreds of thousands of deaths unless there was a mass quarantine?<\/span> Whatever the explanation, the lockdown soon took on a momentum of its own,<\/span><\/strong> with every new death turned into an argument for tighter restrictions.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

It is important to stress that Sweden is not being insouciant.<\/span> Its people have been told to work from home if they can and to avoid unnecessary contact.<\/span> Sports fixtures and meetings of more than 50 people are banned.<\/span> Caf\u00e9s can serve customers at tables, but not at the bar.<\/span> Many Swedes, especially the elderly, are isolating themselves by choice.<\/span> Personal spending, measured by bank card transactions, is down 30 per cent \u2013 though, by comparison, the fall in Norway is 66 per cent and in Finland 70 per cent.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI was sceptical at first\u201d, a friend in the southern county of Blekinge tells me. \u201cBut every day I feel more confident.<\/span> Our public health people look like they made the right call\u201d.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Most Swedes agree with her.<\/span> According to the pollster Novus, 76 per cent support the public health agency.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s bad news for us politically,\u201d a Rightist MP admits. \u201c<\/span>The socialist government is up 21 points.<\/span><\/strong> But I am a patriot, and I want what is best for my country.<\/strong> I criticise ministers for not helping small businesses.<\/strong> But I don\u2019t criticise them for sticking to the science when other countries gave in to populism.\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sweden\u2019s domestic consensus is not reflected internationally.<\/span> \u201cWe fear that Sweden has picked the worst possible time to<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0experiment with national chauvinism<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong>,\u201d chides the Washington Post.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump, justifying his own retreat from openness, claimed that Sweden<\/span><\/strong> \u201cgave it a shot, and they saw things that were really frightening, and they went immediately to shutting down the country.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The Guardian now purses its lips when it mentions its erstwhile pin-up.<\/span><\/strong> Its recent headlines have included \u201cCritics question Swedish approach as coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000,\u201d and \u201cAnger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy\u201d.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

True, Sweden has had more deaths, proportionately, than its Nordic neighbours (though fewer than Spain, France or Britain.<\/span> This is partly because the virus tragically<\/span>\u00a0found its way into care homes<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/a>. But it is worth bearing in mind that the Swedish strategy always allowed for the possibility of a higher initial death rate.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Britain, remember, closed its economy in order to \u201csquash the sombrero\u201d \u2013 that is, to spread out the number of infections and, avoid crippling the NHS.<\/span> The policy seems to have succeeded: there are more spare critical care beds available than before the pandemic started.<\/span> The<\/span>\u00a0Swedish authorities calculated<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0that their hospitals did not need a delay, and believe they have been vindicated.<\/span> Sweden\u2019s public health agency says that a third of Stockholm residents will have been infected by May 1.<\/span> If having had the disease leaves a measure of immunity, Sweden will emerge from the crisis much earlier than the countries that are dragging things out.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

That is\u00a0still a big \u201cif\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/a>. But<\/span> public policy should rest on the principle of proportionality.<\/span><\/strong> It should not be up to me to prove that lockdowns definitely don\u2019t work.<\/span> The burden of proof lies on those who propose to remove our freedoms, not on defenders of the status quo ante.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

When Britain\u2019s closures were announced, they had a clear goal: to buy time for the NHS.<\/span> It worked: we were spared the horror that overtook parts of Italy.<\/span> The government believes that fatalities peaked on 8 April, suggesting that the rate of infection peaked around 18 March<\/strong> \u2013 in other words,<\/span> when Britain was still pursuing a Swedish-style policy<\/strong> of maintaining distance and hand-washing.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

So why not return to that policy?<\/span><\/strong> How did \u201cflattening the curve\u201d morph into \u201cavoiding a second peak\u201d?<\/span><\/strong> It is hard to see how ending a mass quarantine won\u2019t lead to some uptick \u2013 just as it will lead to an uptick in common colds and traffic accidents.<\/span> Our goal, surely, should be to ensure that this uptick does not overwhelm the system.<\/span> In other words, we should aim to prevent people dying for want of medical attention, not to prevent all deaths \u2013 which, in the absence of a cure, is impossible.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

One of the most dangerous human biases is the sunk costs fallacy, the idea that we have sacrificed too much to give up now.<\/span> That notion can lead to disaster.<\/span> Every belligerent nation in<\/span>\u00a0the First World War<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/a>, for example, suffered more than any conceivable war aims could justify; but, once the slaughter had begun, it became its own justification.<\/span> Agreeing terms would mean that all those young men had died in vain.<\/span> Nothing less than total victory would honour them.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Listen to the phrases we hear at the 5pm daily briefings.<\/span> We must not take our foot off the pedal, we keep being told, or everything we have achieved so far will have been for nothing.<\/span> We have, as Matt Hancock put it on Thursday, \u201ctravelled too far together to go back now\u201d.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

But what if the harshness of a lockdown has little bearing on the overall rate of mortality?<\/span> In Europe, France, Spain and Italy, all of which imposed heavy restrictions, have suffered worse than, say, Sweden.<\/span> There may, of course, be other explanations: demographics, population density, cultural habits.<\/span> But, to repeat, it is for proponents of unprecedented state coercion to prove their case, not for their opponents to prove a negative.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Could it be, as Isaac Ben-Israel argues, that the disease traces a similar arc however strict the lockdown? According to the Israeli scientist: \u201cIt turns out that a similar pattern \u2013 rapid increase in infections that reaches a peak in the sixth week and declines from the eighth week \u2013 is common to all countries in which the disease was discovered, regardless of their response policies.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

He may be wrong, obviously.<\/span> But it will not do to respond by saying: \u201cLet\u2019s keep the lockdown going a little longer, just to be sure\u201d.<\/span> The default position should be to retain our freedoms unless there is solid evidence that abandoning them will make a significant difference.<\/span> In any case, at \u00a32.4 billion a day, time is a luxury we don\u2019t have.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The resentment aimed at Sweden reflects an uneasy sense that the rest of us may be condemning ourselves to years of needless poverty.<\/span> Sweden is like the control in an experiment.<\/strong> If it succeeds,<\/strong>\u00a0the lockdown enthusiasts<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>will never be able to claim that, but for their measures, things would have been even worse.<\/strong> No wonder they sound so tetchy.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s still a big IF but if it succeeds, lockdown enthusiasts will not be able to claim that the lockdown saved lives. All it will have done is ruin the economy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":206126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-206368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Commentary","category-coronavirus"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=206368"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206368\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":206372,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206368\/revisions\/206372"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/206126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=206368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=206368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=206368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}