{"id":201381,"date":"2020-01-25T07:01:10","date_gmt":"2020-01-25T07:01:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=201381"},"modified":"2020-01-28T08:09:28","modified_gmt":"2020-01-28T08:09:28","slug":"will-russian-provide-missiles-to-close-the-entire-sky-over-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=201381","title":{"rendered":"Will Russian provide missiles to ‘close the entire sky’ over Iran?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Anton Mardasov \u2013 Al Monitor Jan 24, 2020<\/strong><\/h1>\n
\"\"<\/a>

Two Russian Su-30s land at Hmeimin Air Base in Syria. Iran is reported to be weighing up the possibility of purchasing Su-30s from Russia when the arms embargo falls away later in 2020. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

Russian officials are weighing the possible risks of selling missile defense equipment to Iran\u00a0following the military escalation between the Islamic Republic and the United States\u00a0triggered by the Jan. 3 US assassination\u00a0of Qasem Soleimani, leader of the\u00a0Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC)\u00a0Quds Force.\u00a0Some among Russia’s\u00a0political elite believe\u00a0closer military-technical cooperation would benefit both countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c[We need to] offer Iran an agreement on military cooperation and urgently sell the most modern weapons so that no one dares throw anything in the direction of Iran,\u201d Vladimir Zhirinovsky, leader of Russia\u2019s Liberal Democratic Party, said\u00a0earlier this month.\u00a0He expressed confidence that the S-400 or S-500 missile defense systems would\u00a0be able to \u201cclose the entire sky<\/a> <\/strong><\/span>over Iran.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia had previously\u00a0considered selling military equipment<\/strong><\/span><\/a> to Iran, whose capabilities are now\u00a0significantly limited by the UN arms embargo\u00a0related to its nuclear program,\u00a0but that should end in the fall of 2020, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov emphasized\u00a0in December.<\/span><\/p>\n

The latest annual report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency states, \u201cIran\u2019s potential acquisitions after the lifting of UNSCR 2231 restrictions include Russian Su-30 fighters, Yak-130 trainers\u00a0and T-90 MBTs.\u201d\u00a0It adds, \u201cTehran has also shown interest in acquiring S-400 air defense systems and Bastion coastal defense systems from Russia.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

While traditionally <\/strong><\/span><\/a>skeptical<\/a> <\/strong><\/span>of such reports,\u00a0Russian experts\u00a0concede\u00a0moves are\u00a0possible\u00a0in the case of anti-aircraft defense systems.\u00a0In 2016, Iranian Defense Minister\u00a0Hossein Dehghan had\u00a0noted that Tehran would not buy the S-400 Triumph<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0because its purchase of\u00a0Russia’s\u00a0S-300PMU2 anti-aircraft missile system\u00a0met its needs for long-range systems. The Iranian military also uses its own Bavar-373 long-range air defense system, which is considered\u00a0equivalent to the S-300.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two Russian\u00a0military\u00a0sources who spoke to Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity said\u00a0that\u00a0negotiations for\u00a0Iran to buy Russian weaponry, including the latest equipment,\u00a0intensified in April 2019 during the 8th Moscow Conference on International Security organized by the Ministry of Defense.\u00a0In May, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami\u00a0attended\u00a0an inter-agency consultation<\/a><\/strong><\/span> in Moscow.\u00a0Bloomberg reported\u00a0at the time that Russia had not\u00a0responded to Iran\u2019s official inquiries<\/strong><\/span><\/a> regarding a potential\u00a0S-400 purchase.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies,\u00a0noted back then that such\u00a0hardening by Iran could lead to escalation in the region.\u00a0\u201cIf the Russian side decides to supply the S-400 to Iran, this would be a direct challenge to Moscow\u2019s partners in the Middle East,\u201d Pukhov warned,\u00a0adding that if Russia rejected such a request from Iran, \u201cthis means it wants to develop ties with Saudi Arabia and Israel\u00a0and preserve a chance for talks with Trump.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Nonetheless, during the Russia’s\u00a0Army \u2013\u00a02019 International Military-Technical Forum\u00a0in June, representatives of the country’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation announced its readiness to supply Iran<\/a><\/strong><\/span> with an indefinite number of S-400 systems. Meanwhile,\u00a0Iraq\u00a0is\u00a0reportedly in discussions<\/strong><\/span><\/a> with Russia to\u00a0purchase defense systems<\/a><\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In August, Russia and Iran signed an agreement on naval and\u00a0military cooperation<\/strong><\/span><\/a>, the details of which have not been disclosed. Russian media interpreted the\u00a0expansion in cooperation to extend beyond\u00a0conducting joint exercises<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0to cover parameters for military-technical cooperation, including air defense systems.\u00a0Indeed, the US policy of maximum pressure on Tehran could\u00a0push Russia to\u00a0provide means of deterrence for the \u201cvictim of aggression<\/a><\/strong><\/span>,\u201d\u00a0as some Russian experts view Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia had previously decided to supply the Iranians with an S-300\u00a0system to beef up their defense capabilities and stimulate negotiations on\u00a0the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) nuclear deal. That’s how Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov <\/strong><\/span><\/a>explained<\/a> the decision<\/a><\/strong><\/span> after the Russian president lifted the ban on S-300 deliveries<\/a> <\/strong><\/span>to Iran in 2015.<\/span><\/p>\n

Military-technical cooperation with Iran, however, would\u00a0make\u00a0Russia a target of international pressure. This happened in the case of\u00a0Iran’s\u00a0accidental downing<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u00a0of a Ukraine International Airlines\u00a0Boeing 737-800\u00a0near Tehran on\u00a0Jan. 8, killing all 176 passengers on board.\u00a0On Jan. 14, Volodymyr Yelchenko,\u00a0Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, said\u00a0that those who gave the order to fire on the plane, and\u00a0possibly\u00a0those \u201cwho supplied these missiles<\/strong><\/span><\/a>,\u201d which were Russian, should be held\u00a0responsible<\/strong><\/span><\/a> for the crash. Yelchenko believes there are \u201cmany components\u201d to the tragedy,\u00a0including the alleged \u201cRussian footprint\u201d in the form of the Tor missile system. He stressed that it is necessary \u201cto talk about a certain international responsibility.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Russian experts are\u00a0uncertain about Moscow exploiting the current crisis to promote arms and military equipment deals with Tehran.\u00a0Andrey Frolov, a military analyst and editor in chief of the journal Eksport Vooruzheniy (Arms Export),\u00a0told Al-Monitor that the purchase of air defense systems is not a priority for Iran. Covering the whole country would be enormously expensive, whereas projects to protect\u00a0key facilities have\u00a0already been funded.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA hypothetically possible option is\u00a0military consulting by Moscow primarily in terms of personnel training \u2014\u00a0how to service and respond to situations. Moreover, in recent years, foreigners from all over the world have been studying at Russian military universities,\u201d Frolov said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIran builds air defense [weapons] by integrating Russian systems with the development of its own military-industrial complex,\u201d\u00a0Frolov further noted,\u00a0explaining that\u00a0if outside experts were brought in as consultants or trainers,\u00a0Iran would have to disclose some of the characteristics of\u00a0its air defense systems, which it is unlikely to do.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another Russian military expert, Yury Lyamin, told Al-Monitor that over the past decade the Iranians have developed medium- and long-range air defense systems and promised to introduce a new short-range system in the near future, along with developing and producing\u00a0new radars.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran’s systems are outdated, leading\u00a0Lyamin to assert,\u00a0\u201cAn acquisition of some new Russian systems is quite possible, but we must consider the structure and tasks facing Iranian air defense,\u00a0which are often very specific, and financial resources are now limited.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The downing of\u00a0the Ukrainian airliner\u00a0raises questions about\u00a0the\u00a0qualifications<\/strong><\/span><\/a> of the\u00a0Iranian air defense forces\u00a0and the system used by the army and the IRGC\u00a0for responding to\u00a0emergency situations.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cFirst of all, Iran must determine what\u00a0should be improved and in what order, and then Russia might offer options for strengthening and modernization,\u201d Lyamin said. \u201cIn general, I would note that improvement and modernization of the air defense system should reduce the risk\u00a0of such tragic cases,\u00a0since more advanced detection systems, automated control and communication systems reduce the likelihood of erroneous identification.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He stressed that the air defense systems used by Iran’s army and the IRGC could be modernized, depending\u00a0on the specific system, or replaced.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe IRGC still has\u00a0the outdated Chinese HQ-2J air defense system\u00a0in service,\u201d Lyamin said. \u201cThis is actually a modernized version of the S-7, which hardly makes sense for further upgrade. Satellite images of recent years already show how their positions in the most important areas have been replaced by new Iranian medium-range air defense systems. On the other hand, the IRGC also has Tor-M1, which has\u00a0quite the potential for further modernization.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The nuclear linked arms embargo on Iran will fall away later in 2020. With military tensions rising with the West, will Russia supply Iran with more advanced weapons?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[51,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-201381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-Iran","category-russia"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=201381"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201381\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":201384,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201381\/revisions\/201384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=201381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=201381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=201381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}