{"id":200527,"date":"2020-01-08T08:46:27","date_gmt":"2020-01-08T08:46:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=200527"},"modified":"2020-01-11T07:01:42","modified_gmt":"2020-01-11T07:01:42","slug":"irans-direct-strike-is-a-big-gamble-that-may-be-next-step-towards-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=200527","title":{"rendered":"Iran’s direct strike is a big gamble that may be next step towards war"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deborah Haynes \u2013 Sky New Jan 8, 2020<\/strong><\/h1>\n
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Screen grab of Iranian missiles launched at two US bases in Iraq. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

Anyone who thinks they can predict what will happen next in this crisis between the US and Iran is probably fooling themselves.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the risk of them sliding into a direct war more acute now than at any time in the last four decades, the opposing sides are respectively headed by a uniquely unpredictable US president and a regime in Tehran that’s reeling from the assassination of its top general.<\/span><\/p>\n

Logic would dictate that if the Iranian missile strikes<\/strong><\/a> against US and coalition bases in Iraq overnight impacted without killing any US military personnel, President Donald Trump could absorb the attack without striking back militarily.<\/span><\/p>\n

After all, he did order the killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani – whose importance to Iran is only second to that of the supreme leader – and most have known that would come at a price.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the US commander-in-chief had vowed to avenge the targeting of any American assets if Iran decided to retaliate and he could feel that a failure now to respond with force would be seen as weakness, not calculated restraint.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Iranians appear to be signalling over Twitter – the apparent communication channel of choice for these two nations – that they hope he seeks the route of de-escalation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Their foreign minister, Javad Zarif, wrote: “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack (sic) against our citizens & senior officials were launched.<\/span><\/p>\n

“We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps Mr Trump can be convinced to resist the urge to strike back if the fallout from the Iranian action is limited.<\/span><\/p>\n

The fact that there has not been an immediate retaliation indicates officials are waiting to assess exactly what happened to their forces in Iraq and weighing up the next steps before taking any public action.<\/span><\/p>\n

The US president has so far only made a fairly breezy comment on Twitter given the gravity of the situation and its potential consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n

He wrote: “All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!<\/span><\/p>\n

“We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement [on Wednesday] morning.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The tone contrasted starkly with what he wrote on Twitter previously when he warned Tehran against retaliation following the death of Maj Gen Soleimani. At that point, he said his forces had identified 52 targets – one for each of the 52 hostages taken by Iran in 1979. They include “some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture”.<\/span><\/p>\n

The president then backtracked, reluctantly, on the threat to target cultural sites – which would constitute a war crime.<\/span><\/p>\n

Maybe he will backtrack again on his wider threat to retaliate.<\/span><\/p>\n

Doubtless he will be under pressure from hawks within his administration – perhaps even including his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has been the frontman within the administration in facing the media to explain Maj Gen Soleimani’s assassination – as well as among his support base to avenge the missile strikes.<\/span><\/p>\n

But there are some very senior, experienced military and security officials who will also be giving advice, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mike Milley, and the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Gina Haspel.<\/span><\/p>\n

They know the reason. They understand the risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unfortunately at this time of crisis, there are many gaps of personnel in top administration jobs who should be in play as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

This includes no director of national intelligence, no deputy director, no Homeland Security secretary, no deputy secretary, no assistant secretary of defence for international security affairs and no deputy assistant secretary of defence for Middle East affairs, as noted by journalists Garrett Graff and Lara Seligman.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is hard to argue that this will not be impacting on the US capacity to deal with such a critical foreign policy standoff.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran has made it as clear as Mr Trump did that if the US strikes back in response to the missile attacks then it will unleash more violence, not just against US targets in the region but also bringing in US allies that sit within range of Iranian missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n

This includes the Gulf states and Israel – none of them will be relishing such a prospect.<\/span><\/p>\n

They will be continuing to call for de-escalation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Britain and its European allies also want both sides to walk back from the brink.<\/span><\/p>\n

The fact that no British military personnel were killed or injured in the Iranian strikes – they too were at the targeted bases – will help the UK stick to its position of urging restraint.<\/span><\/p>\n

Many analysts will be surprised that Iran chose to target US positions directly.<\/span><\/p>\n

They had predicted the regime would play to its strengths – using proxy forces, cyber attacks and other less conventional forms of attack – to make life difficult for the Americans and make it hard for Mr Trump to justify lobbing missiles back on Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, went for the direct strike.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is a big gamble that may yet be the next step towards war<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n

Casualties<\/h2>\n
Exact casualties are still unconfirmed but Iran’s Mehr News is reporting<\/a><\/span> at least 80 U.S. troops dead and 200 wounded. It should be emphasised however, that these figures are uncorroborated. Ed.<\/h5>\n
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