{"id":200440,"date":"2020-01-07T08:30:32","date_gmt":"2020-01-07T08:30:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=200440"},"modified":"2020-01-10T08:33:41","modified_gmt":"2020-01-10T08:33:41","slug":"short-intermission-of-sorts-with-a-few-apparently-needed-explanations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=200440","title":{"rendered":"Short \u201cintermission\u201d of sorts with a few (apparently needed) explanations"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Saker \u2013 thesaker.is Jan 6, 2020<\/strong><\/h1>\n
\"\"<\/a><\/h5>\n
Dear friends,<\/h5>\n
I feel that there is a need to clarify a few things here which apparently baffle and perplex many.\u00a0 Since the beginning of this crisis the Saker Community worldwide (literally!) has been crazy busy trying to keep up with the events and make sense of what seems totally insane.\u00a0 I have been working nonstop for the past 2 days now and I ask you to forgive me for being even more curt than usual (nevermind my typos and grammar!).\u00a0 Here we go:<\/h5>\n
1) Iranian nukes:<\/strong>\u00a0 Iran never had a military nuclear program and Iran will never have one.\u00a0 For two reasons: first, nukes were officially declared \u201charam<\/em><\/a><\/span>\u201d by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.\u00a0 But there is also another reason, unless you have a full spectrum of nuclear weapons (like Russia and the USA) your nukes are just targets and not only that, they become ideal targets from a PR point of you: the US and\/or Israel can claim that they HAD to use nukes to destroy the Iranian ones.\u00a0 The truth is that Iran does NOT need any nukes and that acquiring them would be a major mistake and would paint a huge bullseye on Iran.\u00a0 I know that Iran has announce that it is now moving out of the international agreement about the Iranian nuclear program, but I don\u2019t believe for one second that they are trying to manufacture nukes.\u00a0 Beside, they have also added that they are still working with the IAEA and that they will resume compliance if US sanctions are lifted.<\/h5>\n
2) US\/Israeli nukes<\/strong>: yes, unlike Iran, they have nukes. But what they lack are good targets.\u00a0 Oh sure, then can (and will) strike at some symbolic, high-visibility, targets and they can nuke cities.\u00a0 But \u201ccan\u201d does not mean that this is a smart thing to do.\u00a0 The truth is that Iran does not offer any good targets to hit with nukes so using nukes against Iran will only make the determination of Iranians (and they allies) go from \u201cformidable\u201d to \u201cinfinite\u201d.\u00a0 Not smart.<\/h5>\n
3) Iranian air defenses<\/strong>: they are pretty good, but no match for a determined USAF\/USN attack.\u00a0 Yes, if the US attacks there will be much more resistance from air defenses than over Syria, and the US will loose a number of missiles and aircraft.\u00a0 But not enough to stop a determined attack.\u00a0 As I said it a gazillion times, air defenses are a game of numbers.\u00a0 Even if your missiles have a perfect hit ratio (1:1), this will not help you if the enemy has more incoming missiles than your stores. Speaking about stores, yes, air defense units can reload, but only if they are alive to do so in the first place!\u00a0 Thus all the opponent needs to do is fire enough missiles at your battery to make darn sure that your battery is destroyed before it can reload.\u00a0 Okay, this is a gross over-simplification, because in reality batteries can be mobile and batteries protect each other.\u00a0 But you get the idea.\u00a0 Only a totally modern and fully integrated air defense network on all levels (from MANPADs to long range missiles a la S-400\/S-500) can deal with all the threats.\u00a0 Iran is not there yet, in spite of having had some major successes on the air defense front.<\/h5>\n
4) How can Iran win if it gets nuked?<\/strong>:\u00a0 US Americans are cursed with a special mental block: many (most?!) of them sincerely believe that war is an end in itself.\u00a0 It is not.\u00a0 Wars ALWAYS have a POLITICAL objective.\u00a0 This is why the USA has both won each war it fought since WWII AND lost each one too.\u00a0 If you just look at, say, casualty figures or which side suffered most destruction, then you can believe that the USA is a formidable military force.\u00a0 But just look at the 2006 war of Israel against Hezbollah.\u00a0 Both the US and Israel declared that they had \u201cwon\u201d \u2013 yet it was one of the most abject military failures in history.\u00a0 And for Hezbollah this was a \u201cDivine Victory\u201d.\u00a0 Folks \u2013 you need to free yourself from the categories and slogans used by the AngloZionist propaganda machine<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0 Wars are ONLY won when a POLITICAL objective has been reached.\u00a0 Just going on a rampage and killing civilians does NOT qualify, even if western political leaders think it does.<\/h5>\n
If the US uses nukes it will be a political suicide for the US.\u00a0 Well, okay, murdering Solemani is already a form of political suicide.\u00a0 But using nukes will only precipitate even a much faster collapse of the Empire.\u00a0 Here is the unmentionable truth: nukes are USELESS as war weapons in 99% of all circumstances.\u00a0 Yes, they ARE crucial to the balance of terror (kuz that is what this is) between Russia and the USA and, to a much smaller degree, China.\u00a0 But as a WARFIGHTING instrument, they are quasi useless.\u00a0 Yes, I know, we are all conditioned to believe that nukes are like a magic wand, or a silver bullet, or a Wunderwaffe<\/em> (pick your metaphor) \u2013 but this is a lie.<\/h5>\n
So will the US and\/or Israel use nukes?\u00a0 Probably.\u00a0 They will do that because they are dumb racists who believe only in violence and in their own, messianic and racial superiority, and because when they will realize that all is lost, they will do what ALL western leaders (including Hitler) would do: make the other guy pay.<\/h5>\n
The Iranians know that.\u00a0 They have lived under that threat for decades.\u00a0 I assure you that they are ready.<\/h5>\n
5) Will Russia intervene?<\/strong>\u00a0 First things first.\u00a0 There are NO legal\/formal obligations between Russia and Iran and last time I checked, no Iranians have volunteered to die for Russia.\u00a0 Next, yes, Iran is an important ally for Russia.\u00a0 But what most folks are missing is that Iran does not need (or want) a direct Russian intervention.\u00a0 There are lots of reasons (including historical ones) to this. But what most folks are completely misunderstanding is that the Iranians are confident that they can win without any Russian (or other) help<\/strong>.\u00a0 I am in touch with a lot of folks from the Middle-East (including Iran) and I can tell you that their mood is one of not only total determination, but one of quiet confidence.\u00a0 Nobody in the region doubts that it\u2019s now over for Uncle Shmuel.\u00a0 I know, this sounds incredible for folks living in the West, but that is the reality in the Middle-East.<\/h5>\n
Besides, you can be sure that Russia will help Iran, but behind the scenes.\u00a0 First and foremost with intelligence: while the Iranian have an extremely sophisticated intelligence community, it is dwarfed by the much larger Russian one which, on top of being much bigger, also has technical means which Iran can only dream about.\u00a0 Russia can also help with early warning and targeting.\u00a0 We can\u2019t know what is really going behind the scenes, but I am getting reports that the Russians are on full alert (as they were during the first Gulf war, alas \u2013 Saddam Hussein did not listen to the Russian warnings).<\/h5>\n
6) Should Russia declare that Iran is now under Russian protection<\/strong>? Absolutely not!\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Think of what is taking place as if you were sitting in the Kremlin: the Empire is about to embark on its last war (yes, I mean that, see further below) and the Russian specialists all KNOW that the US will lose, and badly.\u00a0 Why in the world would you intervene when your \u201cmain foe\u201d (KGB\/SVR\/FSB expression for \u201cUSA\u201d) is about to do something terminally stupid?<\/h5>\n
Besides, this is a cultural issue too.\u00a0 In the West, threats are constantly used. Not only to scare the enemy, but also to feel less terrified yourself.\u00a0 In Asia (and Russia is far more culturally Asian than European) threats are seen as a sign of weakness and lack of resolve.\u00a0 In this entire career, Putin used a threat only ONCE: to convince the Urkonazis that attacking during the World Cup would have \u201csevere consequences for the Ukrainian statehood\u201d.\u00a0 But you have to understand that from a Russian point of view, the Ukraine is militarily so weak as to be laughable as an enemy and nobody in his right mind will ever doubt the outcome of a Ukie war with Russia.\u00a0 This is an extreme and exceptional case.\u00a0 But look at the case of the Russian intervention in Syria: unlike their western counterparts, the Russians did not first spend weeks threatening ISIS or anybody else in Syria.\u00a0 When Putin took the decision, they simply moved in, so quietly that THE BEST military in the galaxy never detected the Russian move.<\/h5>\n
So, IF, and I don\u2019t think that this will happen, Russia ever decided to move in to protect Iran, the US will find out about it when US servicemen will die in large numbers.\u00a0 Until then, Russia will not be issuing threats.\u00a0 Again, in the West threats are a daily occurrence.\u00a0 In the East, they are a sign of weakness.<\/h5>\n
Now you know why US threats are totally ineffective.<\/h5>\n
7) US force levels in the Middle-East.<\/strong>\u00a0 The US maintains a large network of bases all around Iran and throughout the entire planet, really.\u00a0 The real numbers are secret, of course, but let us assume, for argument sake, that the US has about 100\u2019000 soldiers more or less near Iran.\u00a0 The actual figure does not matter (and the Iranians know it anyway).\u00a0 What is crucial is this: this does NOT mean that the US has 100\u2019000 soldiers ready to attack Iran.\u00a0 A lot of that personnel is not really combat capable (the ratio of combat ready vs support ranges from country to country and from war to war, but let\u2019s just say that most of these 100\u2019000 are NOT combat soldiers).\u00a0 Not only that, but there is a big difference between, say, many companies and battalions in a region and a real armored division.\u00a0 For example, the 82nd AB is an INFANTRY force, not really mechanized, not capable of engaging say, an armored brigade.\u00a0 Here is a historical sidebar: during the first Gulf war, the US also sent in the 82nd AB as the central force of the operation \u201cDesert Shield\u201d.\u00a0 And here is where Saddam Hussein committed his WORST blunder of all.\u00a0 If he had sent in his armored divisions across the Saudi border he would have made minced meat of the 82nd.\u00a0 The US knew that.\u00a0 In fact, Cheney was once asked what the US would have done if the Iraqis has destroyed the 82nd. He replied that the first line of defense was airpower on USN aircraft carriers and cruise missiles.\u00a0 And if that failed, the US would have had to use tactical nukes to stop the Iraqi divisions.\u00a0 That would be one of those instances were using nukes WOULD make sense from a purely military point of view (nukes are great to deal with armor!), but from a political point of view it would have been a PR disaster (vide supra<\/em>).\u00a0 The same is true today.\u00a0 For the US to engage in any serious ground operation it would need many months to get the force levels high enough and you can be darn sure that Iran would NEVER allow that.\u00a0 Should Uncle Shmuel try to send in a real, big, force into the KSA you can be sure that the Iranians will strike with everything they have!<\/h5>\n
The bottom line is this: the US has more than enough assets in the region to strike\/bomb Iran.\u00a0 The US has nowhere near the kind of force levels to envision a major ground operation even in Iraq, nevermind Iran!<\/strong><\/h5>\n
8) What about the Strait of Hormuz?<\/strong>\u00a0 There is no doubt in my mind that Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz.\u00a0 In fact, all the Iranians need to do to close it is say that they reserve the right to destroy (by whatever means) any ship attempting passage.\u00a0 That will be enough to stop all traffic.\u00a0 Of course, if that happens the US will have no other option than to attack the southern cost of Iran and try to deal with that threat.\u00a0 And yes, I am sorry of I disappoint my Iranian friends, I do believe that the US could probably re-open the Strait of Hormuz, but that will require \u201cboots on the ground\u201d in southern Iran and that is something which might yield an initial success, but that will turn into a massive military disaster in the medium to long run because the Iranians will have not only have time on their side, but they will have a dream come true: finally the US GIs will be within reach, literally.\u00a0 So, typically, the US will prevail coming in, only to find itself in a trap.<\/h5>\n
9) Do the Iranians seek death?<\/strong>\u00a0 This is an important one (thanks to Larchmonter 445 for suggesting this!).\u00a0 The short answer is no.\u00a0 Not at all.\u00a0 Iranians want to live and they do not seek death.\u00a0 HOWEVER, they also know that death in defense of Islam or in defense of the oppressed is an act of \u201cwitness to God\u201d, which is what the Arabic word \u201cshahid<\/em>\u201d is (and why the Greek work \u03bc\u03ac\u03c1\u03c4\u03c5\u03c2 \u201cmartis\u201d means).\u00a0 What does that mean?\u00a0 That means that while Muslim soldiers should not seek their death, and while they ought to do everything in their power to remain alive, they are NOT afraid of death in the least.\u00a0 To fully understand this mindset, you need only become aware of the most famous and crucial Shia slogan \u201cEvery Day Is Ashura and Every Land Is Karbala<\/em><\/strong>\u201d (see explanation here<\/span><\/a>).\u00a0 If I had to translate this into a Christian frame of reference I would suggest this \u201cevery day is Good\/Passion Friday and every land is the Golgotha\u201d.\u00a0 That is to say, \u201cno matter were you are and no matter what time it is, you have to be willing to sacrifice your life for God and for the defense of the oppressed<\/em>\u201c.\u00a0 So no, Iranians are a joyful people (as are Arabs), and they don\u2019t seek death. But neither do they fear it and they accept, with gratitude, the possibility of having to sacrifice their lives in defense of justice and truth.\u00a0 This is one more reason why threats by terminal imbeciles like Pompeo or Trump have no effect whatsoever on Muslims.<\/h5>\n
10) So what is really happening now?<\/strong>\u00a0 Folks, this is the beginning of the end for the Empire<\/strong>.\u00a0 Yes, I know, this sounds incredible, yet this is exactly what we are seeing happening before our eyes.\u00a0 The very best which the US can hope for now is a quick and complete withdrawal from the Middle-East.\u00a0 For a long list of political reason, that does not seem a realistic scenario right now.\u00a0 So what next?\u00a0 A major war against Iran and against the entire \u201cShia crescent\u201d ?\u00a0 Not a good option either.\u00a0 Not only will the US lose, but it would lose both politically and militarily.\u00a0 Limited strikes?\u00a0 Not good either, since we know that Iran will retaliate massively.\u00a0 A behind the scenes major concession to appease Iran?\u00a0 Nope, ain\u2019t gonna happen either since if the Iranians let the murder of Soleimani go unpunished, then Hassan Nasrallah, Bashar al-Assad and even Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be the next ones to be murdered.\u00a0 A massive air campaign?\u00a0 Most likely, and initially this will feel good (lots of flagwaving in the USA), but soon this will turn into a massive disaster.\u00a0 Use nukes?\u00a0 Sure, and destroy your political image forever and not only in the Middle-East but worldwide.<\/h5>\n
As a perfect illustration, just check the latest stupid threat made by Trump<\/span><\/a>: \u201cIf they do ask us to leave, if we don\u2019t do it in a very friendly basis, we will charge them sanctions like they\u2019ve never seen before ever. It\u2019ll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame\u201d<\/em>. Folk, this is exactly the kind of stupid language which will deeply offend any Iraqi patriot.\u00a0 This is the kind of language which comes out of an empire in the late stages of agony.<\/h5>\n
Trump will go down in history as the man who thought he could scare the Iranian and Iraqi people with \u201ctweets\u201d.<\/h5>\n
Pathetic indeed.<\/h5>\n

CONCLUSION<\/strong><\/h2>\n
I hope that these pointers will be useful, especially when you are going to be hit with a massive Tsunami of US flagwaving propaganda (Trump \u201cwe are THE BEST\u201d).\u00a0 Simply put: this is bullshit.\u00a0 Modern wars are first and foremost propaganda wars, and what you see as the output of US ruling elites are just that \u2013 \u201cinformation operations\u201d.\u00a0 Let them wave their (Chinese made) flags, let them declare \u201cUnited we stand\u201d (for what exactly they stand is never specified) and let them repeat that the US military is the MOST FORMIDABLE FORCE IN THE GALAXY.\u00a0 These are nothing but desperate attempts to control the narrative, nothing else.<\/h5>\n
Oh, and one more irony: while the GOP controlled Senate is most unlikely to ever impeach Trump, is it not pathetically hilarious that Trump has now, indeed, committed acts ought to have him removed from office?\u00a0 Of course, in the real world, the US Neocon deep-state controls BOTH parties and BOTH parties fully support a war against Iran.\u00a0 Still, this is one of those ironies of history which should be mentioned.<\/h5>\n
I will resume my work tomorrow morning.<\/h5>\n
Until then, I wish you call a good nite\/morning\/day.<\/h5>\n
The Saker<\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ignore the US flagwaving propaganda (Trump \u201cwe are THE BEST\u201d). The Saker argues that the crisis with Iran marks the beginning of the end of the American Empire <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":197690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-200440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Commentary","category-Iran"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=200440"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200440\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":200472,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200440\/revisions\/200472"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/197690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=200440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=200440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=200440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}