{"id":196716,"date":"2019-10-22T12:37:03","date_gmt":"2019-10-22T12:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=196716"},"modified":"2019-10-24T07:08:25","modified_gmt":"2019-10-24T07:08:25","slug":"iran-prepares-for-war-with-israel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=196716","title":{"rendered":"Iran Prepares For War With Israel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yossef Bodansky \u2013 Oil Price.com Oct 21, 2019<\/h1>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Israeli Prime Minister and Defense Minister Binyamin Netanyahu spoke on October 10, 2019, at the memorial for the fatalities of the October 1973 War, and focused on the rising Iranian threats to Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n

He strongly hinted at the possibility of both an Israeli preemptive military strike against Iran and the specter of a major protracted regional war.<\/span><\/p>\n

He noted: \u201cThe current focus of aggression in the Middle East is the Iranian regime in Tehran. Iran is striving to tighten its grip on Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip. It is constantly arming its metastases with dangerous weapons and is attacking freedom of navigation in international shipping routes. It downed a big US UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle], it launched a crude and unprecedented attack<\/a><\/strong><\/span> on Saudi Arabia\u2019s oil fields, it repeatedly exceeds its own arrogance. … Iran threatens to wipe us off the map. It says explicitly: \u2018Israel will disappear\u2019. Time and time again, it tries to attack us, so we must stand ready to protect ourselves from the danger.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Whenever Israel is challenged and its security is threatened, Netanyahu asserted, \u201cwe always remember and apply the basic rule that guides us: Israel will defend itself, on its own, in the face of every threat. The IDF [Israel Defense Force] is prepared to preempt any threat, defensively and offensively, with its overwhelming power in weaponry and in spirit.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This was not the first time in recent days that Netanyahu had raised the specter of a war with Iran, including the prospect of Israeli preemption.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two weeks before, on September 26, 2019, Netanyahu spoke during the New Year\u2019s toast at the IDF General Staff forum. He warned the IDF High Command of gathering clouds and rising security challenges. \u201cIsrael\u2019s proven capacity to simultaneously perform multiple missions is about to be challenged as never before,\u201d he observed. \u201cHitherto we have navigated affairs boldly and responsibly in several arenas, at times simultaneously, but not so far in a comprehensive confrontation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This might change soon, Netanyahu warned, raising the specter of an all-out war as a distinct possibility. Such a war might erupt despite the great success of the myriad of strikes against Iran and Iran\u2019s proxies throughout the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

The difference in emphasis on Israel\u2019s determination to act alone, audaciously and proactively, stems from two major developments. Official Jerusalem did not conceal its disappointment from the US about the US military abandonment of Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, coming on the heels of the US inaction in the Persian Gulf.<\/span><\/p>\n

Israel now has to face the possibility of being left alone to confront a rising and assertive Iran<\/a><\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

A tweet by Israeli Special Forces reserve officer and former Security Cabinet member Naftali Bennett eloquently summed up the Israeli quandary: \u201cIsrael will ALWAYS defend itself by itself. The Jewish State will never put its fate in the hands of others, including our great friend, the USA.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Unmentioned by Netanyahu and others in public were the most recent changes in Iranian doctrine and regional strategy which saw unprecedented emphasis being put on the destruction of Israel by both Iran and its myriad of proxies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tehran has, indeed, just started a most profound change<\/a> <\/strong><\/span>in its regional strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

In late September 2019, once all chances for a diplomatic breakthrough collapsed, top IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps: Pasdaran] experts conducted an in-depth analysis and assessment of the situation in the entire region, and not just of US policies. They concluded that the US objective was to stifle Iran by depriving it of key strategic capabilities and that under these circumstances there could be neither negotiations nor compromise with US Pres. Donald Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Middle East analyst Elijah Magnier, \u201cIran will never give up its advanced missile program, which enables the country to defend itself against any attacks and violations of its airspace \u2014 as, for example, happened with the US drone downed this [2019] Summer. Moreover, for Iran to cease or continue supporting its allies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan is not a matter of choice. It is part of its ideology, its constitution, its very existence.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Significantly, \u201cIranian decisionmakers\u201d stressed to Magnier, that the Iranian threat assessment and policy were derived from the analysis of the ramifications of concrete Israeli undertakings which were implemented on behalf of the US.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf we stop support for Palestine, Israel will annex the West Bank and wipe Gaza from the map while the world stands watching, applauding Israel\u2019s right of self-defense! If we stop support for Hizballah in Lebanon, Israel will confiscate the disputed water and land borders and walk into Lebanon any time it wishes to. The Lebanese Army is not allowed to be armed with deterrent weapons to stop hundreds of violations of Lebanon\u2019s sovereignty every single month by Israel. If we do not support Syria, the Golan Heights will be lost forever and Israel and the US will have a foothold in north-east Syria for good. If Iraq is left alone, it will be divided into three parts as was the case in 2014 when ISIS occupied a third of the country. All these countries will be crushed by US hegemony and subjected to Israel\u2019s will and arrogance.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

While this dynamic had existed for quite some time, US Pres. Trump had, Magnier felt, made things far worse due to his way of dealing with Tehran. \u201cThe absence of trust between Iran and the US is all-pervasive. Trump has changed his mind about many agreements and has shown much aggression since he took office.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The key to change was now in Trump\u2019s hands, Magnier said, because Iran would no longer initiate efforts for contacts, let alone crisis resolution, with the US. \u201cThe situation will remain the same; pressure will continue to mount in the Middle East unless Trump takes his hand off the trigger and allows Iran to export its oil. The [Iranian] initiative that would help Trump to come down from the tree he has climbed up does not exist! Iran will not be coerced into giving up its missile program and its allies. Trump and his allies have been upstaged and outclassed.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Hence, Iran will pursue its regional strategic objectives irrespective of the escalation all around.<\/span><\/p>\n

On October 1, 2019, Tehran articulated authoritatively and in detail its assertive new regional doctrine in a specially-convened High Council of the Commanders of the IRGC. Virtually all the most senior IRGC commanders attended to discuss the next phase of the struggle for the greater Middle East, including the confrontation with the US.<\/span><\/p>\n

They elaborated on and refined the evolving Iranian regional strategy. All the IRGC most senior commanders delivered lectures to the senior officers. These lectures constituted an authoritative articulation of what\u2019s next for the Islamic Republic of Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami<\/p><\/div>\n

One of the key lectures was delivered by the Chief Commander of the IRGC, Maj.-Gen. Hossein Salami. He introduced concrete measures for the implementation of the new \u201cstrategy of active resistance\u201d introduced by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early September 2019. Salami explained that the new doctrine \u201chas enabled the country to survive the economic pressure put on it by Western countries, promoted the Islamic Republic\u2019s national unity, and given credit to Tehran\u2019s deterrence beyond the country\u2019s borders.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Salami explained that in 2019 Iran was entering the second step of the Islamic Revolution. In the first step \u2014 1979-2019 \u2014 Iran focused on the survival and consolidation of Islamic Iran. \u201cThe second step of the revolution is the step that rearranges the constellation of power in favor of the revolution,\u201d Salami stated. Consequently, \u201cIran\u2019s Islamic Revolution will be on top of this constellation… In the second step we will be thinking of the global mobilization of Islam.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Salami then elaborated on the current strategic posture of Iran. There was no longer a viable threat to Iran, so the country could now focus on its ascent as a leading regional power.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe are progressing in various defense fields in a way that IRGC has reached to its self-regenerating stage.\u201d Consequently, Salami asserted, \u201ctoday we have become powerful and invincible and all the enemy\u2019s options orchestrated against the country have been weakened and cannot confront us and this reality has been proven today and is visible.\u201d This assessment was, he felt, accepted by everybody. \u201cToday, friends and foes have realized that the deterrence capacity of the Islamic Revolution is approaching its peak. This is while not only is the credibility of the threat and power of the United States in decline, but also the Zionist regime is no longer a threat, meaning that it is not the size of a credible threat, and it knows its tiniest mistake would be its last mistake, as any new war will result in the wiping of this regime off the political map of the world.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Hence, Salami stated, Iran had seized the initiative and was now \u201cengaged in a full-fledged war against the Global Arrogance\u201d spearheaded by the US and Israel \u201cin all fronts\u201d, as a result of which Iran \u201cis turning the enemies\u2019 maximum pressure campaign into their maximum begging\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tehran was convinced that Iran had crossed a major threshold in the confrontation with the US, and that the US no longer constituted a viable threat in the Persian Gulf. Tehran determined that Israel, furthering its own and the US\u2019 interests, was, therefore, the primary threat to Iran\u2019s long-term vital and strategic interests.<\/span><\/p>\n

Salami announced that destroying Israel was now an \u201cachievable goal\u201d. Four decades after the Islamic Revolution, Iran had \u201cfinally managed to obtain the capacity to destroy the impostor Zionist regime\u201d, he said. \u201cThis sinister regime must be wiped off the map and this is no longer \u2026 a dream [but] it is an achievable goal.\u201d Salami reiterated that not only the IRGC had \u201cthe capability to annihilate\u201d Israel, but that Israel must be \u201cwiped off the world [map]\u201d as soon as possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

IRGC commander Gen Soleimani pictured in Syria with Iraqi Shia fighters near Aleppo. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n

The second key lecture was delivered by the Commander of the IRGC\u2019s Qods Force, Maj.-Gen. Qassem Soleimani. He dwelt on the new regional posture of Iran as a result of the close cooperation with Iran\u2019s proxies. Soleimani stressed that Iran was entering a new regional posture.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe IRGC has shattered the awe of the biggest and most equipped army of the world, which is that of America, and displayed its empty nature to the world people,\u201d Soleimani stated. \u201cThe IRGC tarnished the world\u2019s largest and best-equipped army\u2019s fictitious grandeur in the world.\u201d Consequently, \u201cthe way has been paved for Iran to triumph over its enemies\u201d in the region and beyond.<\/span><\/p>\n

Soleimani stressed that these new dramatic developments were a direct outcome of the \u201cdifferent strategies\u201d employed by the Qods Force \u201cin the past 20 years\u201d in cooperating with Iran\u2019s close allies in the \u201cAxis of Resistance\u201d. Soleimani further highlighted the ongoing developments throughout the greater Middle East, and particularly \u201cthe strategic and \u2018miraculous\u2019 impact\u201d that the anti-Israel \u201cResistance Front\u201d would have on \u201cfuture equations there\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Soleimani concluded that Iran must stay the course in closely cooperating with the regional proxies. Rather than seek a head-on clash with Israel and the US, Iran \u201cshould keep acting with wisdom, just like in the past 20 years, during which we have crippled and defeated the enemy using a variety of strategies and methods\u201d. However, should Israel ignore Iran\u2019s message and choose instead to escalate the confrontation, Soleimani stressed, Iran was ready for this option as well. \u201cThe Islamic Republic has prepared the capability to annihilate Israel and this regime must be wiped off the world\u2019s geographic history,\u201d Soleimani stated.<\/span><\/p>\n

The significance of Iran\u2019s cooperation with the various proxies was echoed by the Chief of General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces, Maj.-Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri. \u201cWe offer our advisory and intellectual support to Yemen\u2019s national army,\u201d he stated. \u201cWe will stand by the Yemeni people until they completely ward off the aggression.\u201d No less important was the Iranian long-term support for the countries on the road to the Mediterranean. \u201cWe also gave our support to Iraq and Syria upon the request of their governments and offered advisory and armed assistance to them.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Other speakers repeated Tehran\u2019s conviction that there was no longer a viable US threat in the Persian Gulf.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Deputy Chief of Iran\u2019s Army for Coordination, Rear Adm. Habibollah Sayyari, warned that the response to any US aggression and invasion would be severe. \u201cThe enemy knows that whenever it wants to take an act of aggression against [Iran], it will definitely receive a heavy blow.\u201d Iran\u2019s response to any US move will be \u201cfirm, tough and (one that makes the enemies regret their move).\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Commander of Iran\u2019s Army, Maj.-Gen. Sayyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, warned that any US strike would be detrimental to several regional countries. \u201cThe enemy should know that if it makes a miscalculation and takes a wrong decision, the smoke of the fire will blind its own eyes,\u201d he warned. Mousavi belittled the US threat because Iran\u2019s \u201cactive and smart resistance has defused all US pressures and sanctions.\u201d The US should have realized by now the futility of its threats. \u201cThe Americans used all their power to impose the discourse of concession on the Islamic Republic of Iran but despite abundant pressures, the Islamic Republic could stand against the enemy and push it back by using the discourse of resistance,\u201d Mousavi explained. \u201cThe signs of failure of the (US) strategy of maximum pressure is fully clear,\u201d he concluded. \u201cThe Islamic Republic of Iran\u2019s current and future strategy is certainly active and smart resistance.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, Tehran was increasingly apprehensive about the long-term and strategic ramification of the ongoing Israeli campaign against Iran\u2019s on-land access to the Mediterranean and its threats to Hizballah. While Iran was cognizant that Israel was pursuing first and foremost its own vital interests, Iran also considered the Israeli strikes the only effective instrument for also furthering the US regional strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, the IRGC determined that Israel was the primary threat to Iran\u2019s long-term vital and strategic interests and must be confronted accordingly.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Deputy Commander of Operations of the IRGC, Brig.-Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan, elaborated on the anti-Israel aspects of Iran\u2019s new regional doctrine. The forthcoming struggle against Israel should be examined in the context of Iran\u2019s regional posture. \u201cNo country can stand up to the Islamic Republic. Tehran\u2019s enemies know that they will not be in control of ending a war they might start against Iran.\u201d Hence, there is no longer a viable threat of a US-led strike on Iran. \u201cIf the enemies could have started a war against Iran, they would have done it.\u201d As well, there is no viable military strategy against Iran. \u201cWe are not a small country that could be conquered in one step. If all the Western, Arab and Israeli coalitions forces enter our country, Iran\u2019s geography will defeat them before they can do anything.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Hence, Iran intended to markedly escalate the reaction to any enemy transgression. \u201c[Iran] will perceive any mistake in the region as involvement in a war in the whole region. Any action to start a war in the region will flare up a fire that will burn those who have started the war,\u201d Nilforoushan said. Moreover, Iran had developed \u201cdeep and long-range assault capability\u201d and all the weapons needed to implement it. \u201cWe will not let the enemies to face us at our borders. We will quickly drag the war to the bases and interests of the enemies anywhere they may happen to be.\u201d Nilforoushan stressed that Iran would be able to quickly turn around any hostile move because \u201c[the] Iranian armed forces do not play according to the rules in their strategic depth which is as wide as West Asia.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Nilforoushan said that this strategic posture enabled Tehran to focus on the Israeli threat.<\/span><\/p>\n

He said that Israel\u2019s military doctrine was based on \u201cstriking resistance forces before they can be turned into a threat and start an all-out war because they cannot afford being involved in a full-fledged war\u201d. Iran could not permit this situation to drag on and on. Therefore, Iran had developed a multi-faceted strategy against Israel, aimed at deciding the war quickly using both Iran\u2019s long-range missiles and proxies. Tehran was not afraid of an Israeli strike because Israel was too weak to attempt such an ambitious undertaking. The reason for this was the internal strife within Israeli society. Nilforoushan noted that Israel\u2019s \u201cpeople are poor and there are too many ethnic, cultural and political divides in their society. A war will drag Israel\u2019s regime to the threshold of annihilation.\u201d Therefore, \u201cIsrael is not in a position to threaten Iran\u201d. Related: Iraq’s Return To Oil’s Top Table<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, Iran was prepared for a decisive war.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIran has encircled Israel from all four sides. Nothing will be left of Israel,\u201d Nilforoushan said. \u201cIsrael lacks strategic depth.\u201d Nilforoushan explained that \u201cbecause of [this] lack of strategic depth, if only one missile hits the occupied lands, Israeli airports will be filled with people trying to run away from the country.\u201d Meanwhile, the war will involve Iran\u2019s regional allies and particularly Hizballah. Hizballah would \u201cliberate northern Israel in case a war breaks out. … This will certainly happen, as Hizballah has a good capability to do it,\u201d he assured. There should be no doubt about the end of such a war. \u201cIf Israel makes a strategic mistake, it [will have] to collect bits and pieces of Tel Aviv from the lower depths of the Mediterranean Sea,\u201d Nilforoushan concluded.<\/span><\/p>\n

On October 2, 2019, Khamenei addressed the special meeting of the High Council of the Commanders of the IRGC. Concluding the event, Khamenei defined his position vis-\u00e0-vis the US, setting out a refined and updated harsh policy. Iran had entered a new era dominated by Iran\u2019s unilateral ascent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Khamenei noted that the US had failed to pressure Iran into compliance. \u201cThe Americans failed in their Maximum Pressure policy. They assumed [that] if they apply the policy of Maximum Pressure on Iran, Iran would accept to compromise with them. To this moment, by God\u2019s grace and power, they learned Maximum Pressure only afflicted themselves with problems.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The US even failed to convince Tehran to accept \u201csymbolic defeat\u201d in order to enable Washington to resume negotiations. Khamenei stressed that he had forbidden any contacts. Yet the US persisted. \u201cTill just recently, to form a symbolic show of Iran\u2019s surrender, and to make the Iranian President meet with them, they [the Americans] even started to beseech us, and used their European friends as a mediator. They failed so far, and this policy will fail forever.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Having given up on both the European Union (EU) and the US, Khamenei ordered unilateral escalation of the Iranian nuclear program irrespective of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement) commitments. \u201cConcerning the JCPOA, we will seriously continue to reduce our commitments; the [Iranian] Atomic Energy Organization is responsible here, and should carefully and completely enact all the reduction of commitments that the Islamic Republic has declared, until we reach the desired results. We will surely achieve our desired goals, by God\u2019s grace.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Khamenei concluded by addressing the domestic situation in Iran and particularly the impact of the international sanctions. He stressed that he was cognizant of the adverse impact on the entire population. \u201cOf course, people have difficulties in their livelihoods, but if the authorities continue to act strongly, reasonably and persistently, it will surely have a gradual impact on people\u2019s lives and livelihoods.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Khamenei noted that the current short-term hardships were due to the sudden fall in oil sales coupled with Iran\u2019s over-dependence on oil revenues. Presently, the oil sales were growing as more countries ignore the US demands and sanctions. In the longer term, Khamenei explained, Iran was transforming the economy and society, and this would ameliorate the economic hardships. \u201cThe sanctions imposed on oil sales, which is increasingly focused on in the Maximum Pressure policy, is a short-term problem for the country because, in the long run, it has the benefit of breaking the reliance on oil revenues. This tactical pressure helps us strategically,\u201d Khamenei concluded.<\/span><\/p>\n

Khamenei could be so assertive because he already knew of the profound changes concurrently unfolding in and around the Persian Gulf.<\/span><\/p>\n

From Tehran\u2019s perspective, the turning point took place in late September 2019, when both Baghdad and Islamabad delivered official messages that Riyadh was suing for peace. Emissaries from both countries assured the senior Iranian officials they met that the Saudi initiative originated from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin \u2018Abd al-\u2019Aziz al Sa\u2019ud (MbS) in person. MbS had been stunned by the US timidity and foot-dragging in the face of a series of Iranian provocations in the Persian Gulf (especially the Iranian shooting down of a US Navy Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and the Iran-controlled Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations), as well as the humiliating trouncing of three Saudi and Yemeni brigades deep inside Saudi territory in Najran. Throughout, MbS\u2019s erstwhile confidant and close friend, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ), continued to both negotiate with Tehran and urge MbS to follow suit. Taken together, these Saudi setbacks and MbZ\u2019s imploring finally convinced MbS that official Riyadh must move fast before it was too late. Hence, MbS asked both Iraq and Pakistan to mediate a deal, seeking Iranian guarantees not to attack and\/or subvert Saudi Arabia and promising not to permit the US to operate out of Saudi territory and territorial waters.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the issues which must have concerned MbS, and thus pushed him to reach out to Tehran, was a major US \u201cexercise\u201d conducted on September 28, 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

That day, the US Air Force shifted its command center throughout CENTCOM from the Combined Air and Space Operations Center at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar to Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina. For the entire day, the flight operations of more than 300 military aircraft in such key areas as Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf were controlled from the US rather than Qatar. Although the Pentagon said that as of September 30, 2019, \u201call\u201d air operations were once again run from the command center at al-Udeid, GCC senior military officials insisted that the US operations were run simultaneously from al-Udeid and Shaw AFB because the US was unsure for how long the USAF will be able to operate in Qatar.<\/span><\/p>\n

On October 2, 2019, Tehran reacted to the USAF\u2019s command exercise.<\/span><\/p>\n

An article in the Khamene\u2018i-affiliated Kayhan newspaper reflected the interpretations of official Tehran. \u201cThe US air force has moved control of its Middle East command center from Qatar to South Carolina, in a move which gave an indication of its future plans for the region,\u201d Kayhan said. \u201cAlthough the move was only temporary … it appears to indicate a significant tactical shift in US thinking. While air force personnel said moving functions to a different base had been a long-harbored ambition enabled by new technology, the move comes amid renewed tension with Iran, which lies around 300km to the north-east.\u201d Tehran stressed that the US exercise was prompted by the growing Iranian threat to al-Udeid and all other US bases in the Persian Gulf region.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf conflict with Iran were to occur, the base in Qatar would be a prime target for Iran,\u201d Kayhan asserted. Therefore, the article concluded, just to be on the safe side, \u201c[the] US air force aims to run the center remotely once a month and remain the rest of the time at al-Udeid.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The strategic-political analysis of official Riyadh was also articulated on October 2, 2019, when the super-well-connected Abdulrahman al-Rashed wrote a column in the authoritative Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, entitled \u201cWill the Americans Quit Al-Udeid?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Riyadh did not buy the US assurances that this was a routine exercise made possible by newly-acquired technologies. \u201cThe transfer of the so-called US Air Force Combined Air and Space Operations Center from Al-Udeid Air Base in the Qatari desert to the Shaw Air Force Base amounts to a \u2018dress rehearsal\u2019, especially after the Iranians succeeded in penetrating air defenses and bombing the state-owned Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais using low-flying cruise missiles and drones.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, the exercise should be considered as a harbinger for a possible US abandonment of, and withdrawal from, the Persian Gulf.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hence, al-Rashed stressed, \u201cthe most important thing for the region is to examine the possibility of a US withdrawal based on the narrative of the transfer of its center of operations from Qatar.\u201d Al-Rashed warned further that \u201ca reduction in the US military presence will be offset by increased Iranian military activities, with repercussions including damage to American and allied interests. Moreover, a withdrawal would mean the failure of the economic boycott that is at the heart of the White House\u2019s Iran policy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Al-Rashed was convinced that there was a profound change of Persian Gulf policy in the Trump White House. He concluded that the exercise in al-Udeid therefore \u201creflects a political logic that finds it preferable to exercise economic pressure on the Iranian regime and force it to retreat, rather than wage a war. The US ability to destroy Iran\u2019s capabilities is real and frightening, but this may be the last resort.\u201d Riyadh must change its regional policies and priorities accordingly.<\/span><\/p>\n

And so it did.<\/span><\/p>\n

On September 30, 2019, Rouhani disclosed that he had received \u201cmessages from Saudi Arabia\u201d through the leader of a third country \u2014 Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi \u2014 and that Riyadh had asked the mediator to \u201cconvey readiness for talks with Tehran\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The next day, when Tehran did not respond, MbS gave Mahdi permission \u201cto arrange a meeting with Iran as a first step towards de-escalating tensions in the region.\u201d Should Tehran agree to such a meeting, MbS promised to intercede with the Trump White House regarding the lifting of the US sanctions and the US acceptance of Iranian cooperation in regional affairs.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Tehran, Khamenei, rather than Pres. Rouhani, oversaw the response to the MbS initiative. Khamenei nominated Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani as the point man for the initial contacts with MbS, rather than with official Riyadh. Larijani\u2019s first response was public, making a statement to numerous Iranian media venues. \u201cIran welcomes the remarks of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman, about resolving disputes through dialogue with Tehran.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Larijani repeated Iran\u2019s long-standing call for mutual security arrangements whereby Iran \u201cinvite[s] the countries of the region to form a special collective coalition in the Persian Gulf region with the participation of all the countries bordering it.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Riyadh immediately sent a positive response via Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. On October 2, 2019, Larijani responded through media statements. \u201cIran is open to starting a dialogue with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region,\u201d Larijani told Iranian media. \u201cAn Iranian-Saudi dialogue could solve many of the region\u2019s security and political problems.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He was forthcoming but demanding.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cRiyadh can submit its proposals to be discussed at the Iranian-Saudi dialogue table without pre-conditions from our side,\u201d Larijani explained. It was not enough for MbS to claim that he \u201cwants dialogue\u201d because Tehran also wanted \u201cto know [that] Saudi Arabia is thinking of the region\u2019s interests first\u201d rather than prioritizing its relations with the US.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tehran approached Moscow for help with getting the improvement of relations on the way.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Kremlin capitalized on the forthcoming participation of the Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Moscow in order to arrange a bilateral meeting with his Iranian counterpart Bijan Zangeneh. They met on October 6, 2019. Zanganeh was emphatic about Tehran\u2019s desire for better relations with Saudi Arabia, telling al-Falih that their countries \u201chave been friends for 22 years; a friendship which had outlived all the ups and downs in Iranian-Saudi relations, and that [Zanganeh] had no trouble meeting with him\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zanganeh argued that Saudi-Iranian relations have been the victim of US conspiracies against both countries, and reiterated that the Saudis \u201cmust not regard us [Iran] as their enemy; the enemy is outside of the region\u201d. Al-Falih promised to deliver the message to Riyadh and predicted major improvements in Saudi-Iranian relations in the near future.<\/span><\/p>\n

As well, to further placate Tehran, MbS decided to accept the Houthi offer for an unconditional truce which should lead to cessation of hostilities and political negotiations regarding Yemen, thus recognizing AnsarAllah as a viable and legitimate political force. On October 4, 2019, official Riyadh responded positively to the Houthi truce offer. Prince Khalid bin Salman, the full brother of MbS and Vice Defense Minister, issued the statement. \u201cThe truce announced in Yemen is perceived positively by the Kingdom, as this is what it has always sought, and hopes it will be implemented effectively,\u201d he wrote.<\/span><\/p>\n

Just to be on the safe side, the next day AnsarAllah reiterated its warning to Riyadh. Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, the Chairman of the Supreme Revolutionary Committee of Yemen, warned that \u201cSaudi will suffer fatal losses if the [AnsarAllah] truce bid is rejected\u201d. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti of the Supreme Political Council urged Riyadh not to \u201cthink they can change the game\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

AnsarAllah \u201cwill never accept a partial halt to the Saudi attacks on Yemen in return for a total halt on our part,\u201d he stated. By now, official Tehran considered the Saudi outreach yet another manifestation of the Saudi Arabian capitulation.<\/span><\/p>\n

From Tehran\u2019s perspective, it was all over on October 11, 2019. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) National Security Adviser and MbZ\u2019s brother, Tahnoun bin Zayed, arrived in Tehran for a two-day secret visit in order to defuse the crisis in the Persian Gulf once and for all. He assured Tehran that the UAE remained committed to \u201cpursuing its own path with Iran\u201d irrespective of the position of Saudi Arabia. He further reiterated that MbZ concurred with Tehran on the imperative to establish a regional security regime which did not include the US and a US presence in the Persian Gulf. Significantly, the secret mission of Tahnoun bin Zayed took place against the progress in the back-channel talks between MbS and Tehran: the arrival of Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan in Tehran with the latest truce offers from MbS. Khan promised Saudi cooperation against the US, but also repeated MbS\u2019s plea to have Tehran understand Riyadh\u2019s plight and obligation to permit the deployment of US forces.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tehran\u2019s response was elucidated in an October 14, 2019, memo to Khamene\u2018i from the Secretary of Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council, Rear Adm. Ali Shamkhani. \u201cThe US rulers\u2019 bitter admission of realities which entail lessons have forced many West Asian countries, even the group which had for years paved the ground or hosted the US deployment in the region, to admit this reality that the Middle East without the US is a more secure place,\u201d Shamkhani wrote.<\/span><\/p>\n

Simply put, there would be no Iranian compromise.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman or MBS<\/p><\/div>\n

Meanwhile, MbS and his innermost circle of allies were under immense pressure to reduce the threats of external and regional escalation which might hasten the US withdrawal from the Persian Gulf. According to numerous usually reliable Saudi opposition sources \u2014 from pro-Western Royalists to pro-Iran Shi\u2019ites \u2014 MbS was pressuring his father, King Salman bin \u2018Abd al-\u2019Aziz al Sa\u2019ud, to abdicate so that he \u2014 MbS \u2014 could become King. The original plan of MbS was to accomplish this unprecedented power grab before the Autumn of 2020; that is, before the US presidential elections and while Pres. Trump, considered both friend and patron, was still in power. But now, there is growing trepidation in Riyadh that the US might withdraw from the region rather than go to war with Iran, and Trump would therefore be disinclined to get involved in the power games of Riyadh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hence, MbS decided to accelerate the move and increase the pressure on his father.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concurrently, there had been growing criticism of MbS within the House of al-Sa\u2019ud and the Saudi professional \u00e9lites. They were apprehensive about the negative ramifications of his rush to seize greater power internally. Many leading Saudis tried to reach out to King Salman and warn him of MbS\u2019s maneuvers. The Saudi rumor mills connected the death of Maj.-Gen. Abdul Aziz al-Fagham, King Salman\u2019s chief bodyguard and very close confidant, to MbS.<\/span><\/p>\n

Officially, al-Fagham was killed in a personal dispute in Jeddah on September 29, 2019. Both Saudi opposition sources and grapevines insisted that al-Fagham was assassinated on the orders of MbS because he was going to urge the King against the hasty move of abdicating now and crowning MbS.<\/span><\/p>\n

A recurring theme in all the opposition reports about MbS\u2019s quest for power was the imperative to slow down the US withdrawal so that the crowning of MbS could be accomplished under the patronage of Trump. Ameliorating the Iranian threat in the Persian Gulf was therefore an urgent imperative.<\/span><\/p>\n

As of early October 2019, there was a visible change in the Iranian threat assessment and strategic outlook in accordance with the new tenets as articulated in the IRGC conference in Tehran.<\/span><\/p>\n

On October 2, 2019, the Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, Brig.-Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, noted that Iran had enhanced its military power to the point that enemy threats were futile. \u201cToday, the balance of power has changed and the shadow of war has become useless,\u201d he explained. Should they challenge Iran, the US \u201cwill be beaten and they will be the losing side in this confrontation. … Today, in addition to the trans-regional states\u2019 bases, we have made their warships in the sea useless for a distance of 2,000km.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This was why the US-led military option against Iran was \u201cno more on the table\u201d, Salami explained on October 4, 2019. \u201cBecause we have become powerful; because we have been invincible and, at the same time, our enemies have been weakened and their options have become really weak.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The US, he said, had lost the strategic initiative throughout the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is evident that the enemy no longer has the capability; once it wanted to act and force us to react, but today, the enemy is not even capable of reacting to our capabilities and this reality is seen today on the battlefields,\u201d Salami concluded.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran was now focusing on proactive and preventive undertakings throughout the greater Middle East. On October 5, 2019, the Head of the Army\u2019s Strategic Studies Center, Brig.-Gen. Ahmadreza Pourdastan, articulated Iran\u2019s new operational modalities. \u201cAll the enemies\u2019 moves at the borders and inside and outside the region on the ground, in the air and at sea are being carefully monitored through different systems,\u201d he explained.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWarnings sent by [Iran\u2019s] Armed Forces have undermined the willpower of the Americans and led to deterrence.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Under such conditions, Iranian forces had been ordered to strike out and neutralize any potential threat as far away from Iran as possible. \u201cIf there is any threat, it can be in a limited form and there is also the capability and capacity to nip that threat in the bud even before it reaches the borders.\u201d Iran is introducing strategic activism in order to scare and deter would-be foes. \u201cSometimes, we should send some alarms to enemies,\u201d Pourdastan stressed. \u201cWe call these alarms \u2018active resistance\u2019. … This active resistance is in place in many areas; both in domestic issues and in issues which relate to the Islamic Republic of Iran\u2019s strategic depth such as Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

A major goal of the new proactive strategy was to push the US out of the greater Middle East, starting with the Persian Gulf. Also on the October 5, 2019, IRGC Deputy Commander for Political Affairs Brig.-Gen. Yadollah Javani stated that \u201cthe US forces deployed in the region will be forced to withdraw\u201d, and would then be replaced by the \u201cestablishment of security by the regional states\u201d. This would be an inevitable outcome of the major trends in the region whereby Iran was supplanting the US as the preeminent regional power.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe process of development of power in the region with the pivotal r\u00f4le of the Islamic Republic means that the Americans have no way but leaving the region and this means acceleration of gaining power by the Resistance Front in the region and turning the existing foreign-affiliated powers into popular powers.\u201d As the leading power, Iran would be \u201csafeguarding security and stability in the region\u201d, Javani stated. \u201cThe Islamic Republic was ready to establish security in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz with the help of the regional governments and nations.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

On October 7, 2019, Iran\u2019s Channel 1 TV broadcast a speech by IRGC Qods Force Commander Maj.-Gen. Qasem Soleimani (which was retrieved and translated by MEMRI) in which he defined the IRGC\u2019s achievements to-date. \u201cThe IRGC has expanded the resistance in terms of both quantity and quality. It has expanded the resistance from a geographical territory of 2,000 square kilometers in southern Lebanon to a territory of half a million square kilometers,\u201d he said. \u201cAmerica and the Zionist regime concentrate their efforts on stopping this qualitative expansion. The second point is that the IRGC has created territorial continuity for [the different parts] of the resistance. It has connected Iran to Iraq, Iraq to Syria, and Syria to Lebanon.\u201d The IRGC would permit no-one to deprive Iran of these achievements.<\/span><\/p>\n

Starting October 6, 2019, Salami delivered a series of lectures to IRGC officers all over Iran in which he articulated Iran\u2019s new strategic posture. The greater Middle East was going through an historic turning point as a result of the US decline and withdrawal.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cToday, [the Americans] admit that they have reached the point where the more they advance, the more they go downwards.\u201d \u201c[The] Americans admit [that] the options they have on the table are not practical against Iran.\u201d This was an historic development. \u201cA power\u2019s lack of strategy is the beginning of its gradual death and this is what has happened in the US,\u201d Salami said. \u201cThe US is powerful but it is weak in using its power [in the region],\u201d Salami added. He elaborated that \u201call great powers of the world have collapsed and will collapse for being wrong. This is the tradition of history. The life cycle of vicious powers is like a curve which has a climax but is immediately followed by a decline.\u201d This was where the US was presently. \u201cThe enemy is retreating and leaving the battlefield while the Islamic Revolution is advancing and this is the sign of victory.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This trend influenced the entire region.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe US allies, Saudi Arabia and [the] Israel regime, are now discouraged with it and fully aware that the US cannot protect them in difficult days,\u201d Salami asserted. He argued that all world powers should take note of the transformation of the greater Middle East. \u201cAll world powers should know that if they want to toy with [the] future of [the] Iranian nation, we will toy with their own future.\u201d Salami pointed to \u201cthe need to expand [the] viewpoints of the Islamic Revolution across the world.\u201d He stated that \u201cto be an independent country, we should be powerful because we have learned victory requires constant watching of enemies.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Salami emphasized, the key to Iran\u2019s ascent and victory was to \u201cfurther extend the geographical scope of the Axis of Resistance\u201d far away from Iran because \u201cthe resistance of the Iranian nation against enemies knows no limits and borders\u201d. Tehran intended to reach out proactively in order to confront the enemy as far as possible from Iran and on Iran\u2019s conditions. \u201c[The] Iranian nation\u2019s resistance in face of enemies knows no boundaries,\u201d Salami explained. \u201cWe will not allow the enemy to enter our beloved Islamic homeland, [and] we will not let the enemy set foot on our soil, and with our presence in thousands of kilometers away from our borders, we will prevent and bloc the enemy\u2019s plots and hostilities,\u201d Salami said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe IRGC will expand the geography of resistance and when the enemy sees the growth of this geography and the Islamic Republic\u2019s discourse then it should leave the field.\u201d Salami explained that the rising spirit of resistance of the Iranian nation and the Shi\u2019ite allies had confounded the enemies. \u201cToday, we have a grave responsibility to continue the path of resistance.\u201d Salami mentioned Yemen as a prime example of the new outreach of the IRGC.<\/span><\/p>\n

Salami concluded by stressing that Khamenei was expecting the IRGC to markedly accelerate this process.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Leader of the Islamic Revolution is satisfied, but not content, with the enhance of defense power and hence we should make effort to progress in this field more than ever,\u201d Salami said.<\/span><\/p>\n

On October 13, 2019, Khamenei addressed graduating officer cadets of the IRGC. He urged the IRGC to \u201cprepare against [the] enemy\u201d for a major confrontation which might be imminent. He stressed the urgent imperative for a major build-up of the IRGC. \u201cA permanent lesson before the eyes of the IRGC is … Investigate to find out what you need in all military and intelligence arenas. … The military equipment of the IRGC must be advanced and up-to-date; you should invent and manufacture them yourselves, and [it should] be so versatile that [it] would meet all demands on the ground, in the sky, space, sea, borders and inside the country, and of course, even the virtual space is among the necessary tools today.\u201d Khamenei added that the IRGC needs to \u201calways have enhancing scientific and specialized power in mind, keep moving forward in tactical and strategic strengths, operate with constant alertness and readiness and avoid even a moment of neglect and increase the strength of the IRGC\u2019s faith by training faithful, determined, pure, and motivated youth every single day.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Khamenei concluded by imploring the cadets to \u201cmarch to the peak of honor, sacrifice, and martyrdom\u201d, in order to \u201crejuvenate the power of Islam and the Islamic Resistance Front\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

By mid-October 2019, Tehran was convinced that the US was no longer the main threat, and that the Persian Gulf was no longer the source of the primary strategic threat. This conviction was reinforced by the US abandonment of the Kurds and withdrawal from northern Syria. On October 10, 2019, Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gloated that anybody trusting the US was \u201cdestined to fail\u201d. \u201cThe Americans abandoned the Kurds overnight and left them. This is the fate of all who bet on the US,\u201d Nasrallah said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tehran was now convinced that the US would no longer dare to attack Iran directly. On October 14, 2019, the IRGC\u2019s Deputy Commander for Coordination, Rear Adm. Ali Fadavi, explained that because of \u201cthe enemies\u2019 fear of Iran\u2019s military power, … the Americans dare not fire even a single shot at the Islamic Republic\u201d. Also on October 14, Salami stated that Iran \u201chas been defeating the enemy\u201d, and particularly the US. \u201cWe do not allow the enemy\u2019s will to affect our destiny and so far, we have done so and are moving forward. … The secret to these (military) advances is that God is the ruler of the world and not America, and that anyone who believes in God is not affected by the enemy\u2019s will.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, Tehran continued to focus on the on-land access to the Mediterranean as the main challenge facing Iran. This approach followed the instructions of Khamenei in mid-September 2019. Presently, there was a unique opportunity to surge westward because of the \u201cunraveling\u201d of the US-run wide anti-Iran coalition with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf sheikdoms. Consequently, Israel was all alone in attempting to confront the Iranian-Shi\u2019ite surge westward.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politically, Tehran intensified the pressure on the US to abandon Iraq so that it would not be able to interfere in the surge westward. On September 29, 2019, Iraj Masjedi, the Iranian Ambassador to Iraq and Soleimani\u2019s deputy, warned that should US troops be used for attacking Iran, they will be targeted on Iraqi soil. \u201cIf they [the US forces] don\u2019t cause any problem for the Islamic Republic, Iran won\u2019t respond to this presence [of US forces in Iraq]. If the Americans want to cause any problem for the Islamic Republic, they have to expect a response and reaction. A demand of Iran is for American forces to get out of the region because they don\u2019t do any positive or constructive work. This is not strictly about Iraq. It is about wherever they exist.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Tehran could not ignore the desperate, albeit ultimately futile, US efforts to calm down the Hashd al-Shaabi and convince them to not attack US forces and installations in Iraq. In early October, the Pentagon invited Falih al-Fayyadh, one of the Hashd al-Shaabi [Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces] leaders, to Washington for secret talks. On October 2, 2019, he met Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley ostensibly to discuss \u201cthe relationship between the two countries\u201d. According to al-Fayyadh, the US side brought up \u201cIraq\u2019s positive r\u00f4le in consolidating stability in the region and the need for this to continue\u201d; that is, that Hashd al-Shaabi would not join the Iran-led anti-US campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n

The US assured al-Fayyadh that the US had nothing to do with the recent strikes against Hashd al-Shaabi facilities in Iraq; thus implying that Israel was solely responsible. Al-Fayyadh responded by demanding that the US cease all the anti-Iran and pro-Israeli activities in Iraq, and did not attempt to block Iranian activities as well as the further improvement of Iraqi-Iranian relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since then, Iranian and pro-Iran Iraqi media have intensified their calls for a US withdrawal, and, increasingly, for popular violence against the US presence in Iraq. For example, on October 5, 2019, the Khamene\u2018i-affiliated Kayhan claimed that the US Embassy in Baghdad was operating \u201cagainst Hashd al-Shaabi and the ties between the nations of Iran and Iraq, and [in] opposition to Iranian pilgrims\u2019 visits to Iraq on the occasion of [the] religious holiday, Arbaeen.\u201d This part of the US Embassy\u2019s served, the reports indicated, as the base for anti-Iran and anti-Iraq endeavors in the region, including the unfolding protests and riots in Baghdad.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere are many documents about the presence of US, Israeli and Saudi Wahhabi agents as well as Ba\u2019athist elements behind the Iraqi protests.\u201d Kayhan observed that \u201chalf a glance at the slogans leaves no doubt that there is an American, Saudi and Israeli conspiracy\u201d playing out in Baghdad. Since \u201cUS embassies everywhere are the focal points of conspiracies\u201d, Kayhan argued, Iraqi patriotic youth should \u201cput an end to the US embassy\u2019s presence in Baghdad.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Kayhan pointed to the Iranian precedent: namely, the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran in November 1979. \u201cThe seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran has had many achievements for the Islamic Iran. Why should Iraq\u2019s revolutionary youths deprive their country from such achievements?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the anti-US incitement campaign has intensified since the US started the withdrawal from Syria rather than confront Turkish forces.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Iranians were blaming the US for the violent riots in Baghdad and other cities and the revival of jihadist terrorism (including ISIS\/DI\u2019ISH), as well as concentrated policy to undermine and damage all aspects of the Iraqi-Iranians relations and friendship and particularly the Iranian support for the Hash al-Shaabi militias.<\/span><\/p>\n

The explicit message of the campaign was that the US, and not just US forces, must leave Iraq unconditionally and as soon as possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concurrently, Baghdad launched a concentrated effort to divert the rage against Israel. On September 30, 2019, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi accused Israel of responsibility for the recent attacks of several Hashd al-Shaabi weapon storage facilities. \u201cInvestigations into the targeting of some Popular Mobilization Forces positions indicate that Israel carried it out,\u201d he told Al-Jazeera TV. Numerous senior commanders of Hashd al-Shaabi\u2019s sub-groups immediately reacted that the statement made retaliation against Israel legitimate.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ahmed al-Maksousi, Second-in-Command of Kata\u2019ib Sayyid al-Shuhada [Sayyid of Martyrs Battalions, militia formed in 2013 to protect Shi\u2019a shrines], explained that they were \u201caware for more than a month that the report compiled by the commission of inquiry on the bombing of the [Hashd al-Shaabi] positions proved the Zionist regime\u2019s involvement, especially since Americans told Abdel-Mahdi that Israel was behind these strikes.\u201d Abu Ala al-Walai, the Commander of the Kata\u2019ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, wrote that the statement constituted \u201ca green light to retaliate against Israel\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Maksousi concurred that \u201call options were on the table, especially since we reserve the right to respond, and the Zionist entity is not away from our fire range\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Other commanders declared that the retaliation might come from other members of the Axis of Resistance stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean. For example, Hamid al-Jazairi, the Second-in-Command of the Saraya al-Khorasani group, confirmed that Hashd al-Shaabi \u201chad detailed information (about the air-strikes) prior to Abdul-Mahdi\u2019s announcement.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Axis of Resistance is not confined within Iraqi borders, but also operated in Syria and Lebanon. Therefore, the response to Israel does not have to be from the Iraqi territory.\u201d Jazairi stressed that \u201cthere will be a response very soon to the Israeli bombings by resistance factions. It will be an appropriate response, and will be announced in a timely manner\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Lebanon, HizbAllah commanders also announced their readiness to participate in the anti-Israel retaliation operations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Iran and the Iran-proxies launched an all-out effort to build and expand military installations in western Iran, Iraq, and Syria in preparations for the escalation against Israel. The objectives of this endeavor were to escalate the flow of weapons and supplies westward, and to be able to launch strikes at Israel from a growing number of facilities, thus reducing the likelihood of successful preemptive strikes by Israel. The focus was on a forthcoming confrontation and war with Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tehran signaled the evolving priorities on October 7, 2019, during the inauguration of the new \u201cPersian Gulf Air Defense Headquarters\u201d in Bushehr province. The Commander of the Army, Maj.-Gen. Sayyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, explained in the ceremony that \u201cthe new center is equipped with the latest homegrown control and surveillance technologies with the capacity to help keep a better watch on the region\u201d. The center would monitor all threats emanating from the north and the west \u2014 that is, Israel \u2014 and not just the south \u2014 that is, the Arabian Peninsula. All air defense forces of the Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps throughout southern Iran \u201cwill be under the direct command of the Persian Gulf Air Defense Headquarters\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

In mid-September 2019, the Kata\u2019ib Imam Ali, a component of Hashd al-Shaabi, took control over the Shaykh Mazhar Air Base (aka Suwayrah AB) some 50km south-west of Baghdad. Almost immediately, Hashd al-Shaabi made the entire area off-limits to all Iraqi military personnel. Toward the end of the month, Iraqi Shi\u2019ite and IRGC engineering and construction elements launched a massive expansion and fortification program. The runways were enlarged and numerous fortified hangars and storage facilities constructed. Qods Force senior commanders briefed their Hashd al-Shaabi counterparts that they intend to make the Shaykh Mazhar Air Base \u201cthe primary base for missile and armed drone attacks on Israel\u201d for the entire Axis of Resistance in Iraq. The base would house aircraft, drones, and ballistic missiles in fortified facilities which would, the Iranians felt, protect them from Israeli air strikes. The Qods Force also installed multiple air defense systems including the long-range Bavar-373. These air defense systems were under the command of the center in Bushehr province. Should the need arise, Iranian fighter aircraft would deploy to the Shaykh Mazhar Air Base in order to help in the defense of Baghdad, Najaf and Karbala against Israeli air attacks.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the main Iranian efforts in Iraq was on the route westward.<\/span><\/p>\n

Official Baghdad supported the endeavor. On September 30, 2019, Iraq officially reopened the al-Qaim-Albukamal border-crossing with Syria. The Iraqi announcement hailed the growing normalization between Baghdad and Damascus, while Iraqi officials also noted this is \u201ca win for their mutual ally Iran\u201d. Baghdad announced that Hashd al-Shaabi forces would be responsible for securing the crossing point and the entire area. Concurrently, the Syrian military in the Albukamal area was put on high alert along the Iraqi border because \u201cthere are grave concerns about a potential Israeli Air Force attack at this new border crossing with Iraq\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Hashd al-Shaabi forces expanded their deployment to the vicinity of the Iraq-Syria border. \u201cThe Hashd al-Shaabi security forces and fighters have taken full control of the border with Syria,\u201d explained the regional commander Hadi al-Khorasani. The sole exceptions were \u201careas on the border strip that are under the control of the US forces.\u201d In these areas, Khorasani said, \u201cthe US forces were conducting drills and exercises on the Syrian border to make the ground prepared for the ISIL terrorists to infiltrate into the Iraqi desert\u201d, Toward this end, \u201cthe Americans piloted drones in the desert of al-Anbar to find pathways free from the presence of [Hashd al-Shaabi] security forces to facilitate the penetration of the ISIL terrorists into the territory of Iraq.\u201d It did not take long for skirmishes between US and Hashd al-Shaabi patrols to begin.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Syrian senior officials, the US and Israel were actively attempting to prevent the new al-Qaim-Albukamal crossing from opening. \u201cDaesh\u2019s [DI\u2019ISH\/ISIS] attempts to launch attacks came from the American military\u2019s orders because the US has kept Daesh units in the region; they also support them and use them for special plots\u201d, the officials claimed. However, \u201cthe intelligence and logistical forces of the Syrian Army rapidly reacted to the terrorist attacks, killing several of them and forcing others to flee the region.\u201d Then, starting October 11-12, 2019, there were several reports that \u201cunidentified warplanes targeted the Iranian forces and their allies near the Iraqi border\u201d, and particularly \u201cthe positions of the Iranian Armed Forces and their allies near an undisclosed location along the Syrian-Iraqi borde..\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The main targets of the bombing raids were in the al-Qaim-Albukamal area.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Iranian-Iraqi security coordination also intensified in the main border crossings feeding into the access roads toward the Mediterranean. In early October 2019, capitalizing on the massive flow of Arbaeen pilgrims to Iraq, the Qods Force and Hashd al-Shaabi organized a joint system to provide security for the border crossings used by the pilgrims. The joint security force was under the command of an IRGC senior officer who \u201crecognized the recent unrest in Iraq as a plot planned by the enemies to harm the unity between [the] Iranian and Iraqi nations\u201d. The joint security force already guaranteed that \u201cthis conspiracy has been thwarted by the vigilance of the Iraqi people and officials, as well as the security forces, and this glorious march will be held with full security\u201d, the commander said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concurrently, the Qods Force also accelerated and expanded the support for Hizballah’s preparations for war. In early October, the Qods Force orchestrated the dispatch of Iraqi Shi\u2019ite reinforcements from southern Iraq and Syria to Hizballah bases near the Israeli-Lebanese border. \u201cHizballah and the Iraqi al-Nujaba together deployed forces on the northern border of Israel,\u201d explained an Iranian official. He claimed that \u201cthe Yemeni Ansar AllahAnsarAllah is another threat against Israel now\u201d since they are ready to send forces and \u201cdeterrence weapons\u201d (that is, UAVs and missiles) to the Lebanese front. Near Sana\u2019a, Hizballah engineers work together with the Iranian experts on assembling the Yemeni UAVs and missiles from components sent from Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tehran did not neglect Israel\u2019s Golan border either. In late-September 2019, Soleimani ordered Hajj Hashem, the Hizballah commander of the Golan Front, to markedly accelerate the build-up of the local clandestine deployment of a joint force comprised of Qods Force, Hizballah and locally recruited Shi\u2019ite fighters. In early October 2019, the Front expanded the recruitment of local villagers and former fighters. As well, additional Qods Force and Hizballah \u00e9lite forces deployed to rear bases some 50-80 km east of the Israeli border pending a forward push in time of crisis. The Golan Front maintained four main bases close to the Israeli border: three in the area controlled by the Syrian Army\u2019s 52nd Brigade and the fourth in the area controlled by the Syrian Army\u2019s 90th Brigade.<\/span><\/p>\n

The three bases were used mainly for the training and sustaining of the troops, including the use of the short- and medium-range rockets\/missiles stored nearby. The Iranian and Hizballah forces also conducted intelligence operations. The fourth base housed the Quneitra Hawks Brigade, a locally recruited Shi\u2019ite militia under the command of Qods Force officers that is a part of the Syrian National Defense Forces originally established by Soleimani. The main task of the base was intelligence gathering operations against Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most important was the marked acceleration of the conversion of Hizballah heavy rockets into accurate guided missiles. In early October, Iran started mass production of the Labeik \u201cconversion kit which can turn artillery rockets into precision-guided missiles\u201d. The project was run by Brig.-Gen. Mohammad Hossein Dadras and Brig.-Gen. Kioumars Heidar. In Iran, the Labeik is used to upgrade the 610mm Zelzal heavy artillery rocket. \u201cThe kit is similar to a system used in the Fateh-110 family, and is attached between the rocket\u2019s warhead and engine.\u201d At the specific order of Soleimani, a large number of Syrian and Iranian Il-76 transport aircraft were earmarked for an airlift to deliver Labeik kits to Hizballah. The kits were flown from bases in Iran to the T-4 air-base in central Syria, and then either on to Beirut International, or by trucks to Hizballah bases in the Beqa\u2019a. The Qods Force\u2019s priority objective was to convert Hizballah’s long-range heavy rockets \u2014 the Nazeat 10-H and the Nazeat 6-H (with ranges of 100-150km) \u2014 into missiles with an accuracy comparable to that of Hizballah’s Fateh-110 and Zelzal-5 ballistic missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also in late September 2019, and before the Turkish invasion of northern Syria which prompted the withdrawal of all US forces from the area, Tehran pleaded with Moscow for help in deterring the US forces in Syria from attempting to block their access to the Mediterranean. Consequently, on October 1, 2019, Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces launched a joint exercise in the Deir ez-Zor area on the western bank of the Euphrates.<\/span><\/p>\n

The exercise involved air force, air defense, mechanized, artillery and special forces units. They exercised protection of strategic roads against air attacks and attempts of blocking by land forces, as well as attacks on and destruction of fortified bases from where the blocking forces were dispatched. Significantly, the main activities took place not far from the US al-Tanf base that blocks the southern route from Iraq to Syria and where the jihadist forces used to attack the northern route were being trained by US intelligence and special forces. The US should have gotten the message.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read the conclusion to this special report here: <\/em>Iran Prepares For War With Israel (Part 2)<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Netanyahu has hinted strongly at the possibility of Israel launching a pre-emptive military strike on Iran \u2013 with or without U.S. approval and assistance <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,51,37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-196716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-Commentary","category-Iran","category-Israel_Anti-Semitism_Zionism_and_US-UK_allies"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=196716"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196716\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":196721,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196716\/revisions\/196721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=196716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=196716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=196716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}