![\"EU](\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/EU-titanic_sinks.jpg\")
<\/a>A leaked German military report has revealed Germany’s top military planners believe the breakup of the EU by 2040 is a conceivable eventuality – given the apparently irresistible rise of euroskeptic parties across Europe, such fears could be well-founded.<\/span><\/p>\nThe Bundeswehr believes an end to\u00a0the European Union in\u00a0its current form in\u00a0decades to\u00a0come is entirely plausible, according to “Strategic Perspective 2040”\u00a0\u2014 a 102-page report speculating on\u00a0how global economic, military, cultural and social trends, and international conflicts, could shape German security policy in\u00a0future.<\/span><\/p>\n \u200bThe document was released for\u00a0internal use by\u00a0the Bundesministerium der Verteidigung (Ministry of\u00a0Defense) and kept under\u00a0wraps subsequently, although German daily Der Spiegel obtained a copy through\u00a0undisclosed channels.<\/span><\/p>\n In seeking to\u00a0assess the Bundeswehr’s potential future needs in\u00a0respect of\u00a0funding, equipment and size, it outlines six scenarios, one of\u00a0which is titled, The EU in\u00a0Disintegration and Germany in\u00a0Reactive Mode<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n The report’s authors assume a worst-case-scenario, in\u00a0which a “multiple confrontations” arise in\u00a0a world\u00a0where the international order had eroded after “decades of\u00a0instability,” value systems worldwide diverge and globalization has halted.<\/span><\/p>\n “EU enlargement has been largely abandoned, other states have left the community, and Europe has lost its global competitiveness. The increasingly disorderly, sometimes chaotic and conflict-prone world has dramatically changed the security environment of\u00a0Germany and Europe,” the report envisaged<\/span><\/p>\n Other speculative scenarios are less apocalyptic, but\u00a0nonetheless fairly dire\u00a0\u2014 another, titled, West to\u00a0the East<\/em>, foresees some eastern EU countries freezing the pace of\u00a0European integration, and others “joining the Eastern bloc” under\u00a0the de facto protection of\u00a0Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n In another, Multipolar Competition<\/em>, extremism is on\u00a0the rise across\u00a0the continent, and some EU partners “even occasionally” seek to\u00a0emulate Russia’s “state capitalist model.”<\/span><\/p>\n Just two of\u00a0the scenarios envisaged a more peaceful world in\u00a0future.<\/span><\/p>\n The simulations were formulated and investigated by\u00a0scientists in\u00a0the Federal Armed Forces Planning Office.<\/span><\/p>\n The document is careful not to\u00a0brand any of\u00a0the tentative scenarios likely, merely “plausible with\u00a0the 2040 time horizon.”\u00a0However, fears of\u00a0a potential future EU-breakup among\u00a0the upper echelons of\u00a0leading member states, and Brussels itself, are very real.<\/span><\/p>\n German Chancellor Angela Merkel previously revealed she was rocked by\u00a0Brexit, and feared for\u00a0the future of\u00a0the EU, although she was said to\u00a0have been imbued with\u00a0fresh hope by\u00a0the election of\u00a0Emmanuel Macron in\u00a0France. However, Macron himself has acknowledged<\/a><\/strong><\/span> without\u00a0fundamental reform, the bloc’s days may indeed be numbered.<\/span><\/p>\n The question of\u00a0how to\u00a0reform the EU has troubled leaders for\u00a0some time. Sizable and growing public opposition to\u00a0deeper integration across\u00a0the continent led EU leaders to\u00a0repeatedly moot a\u00a0“multi-speed” Europe<\/strong><\/span><\/a> in\u00a0the lead up\u00a0to the Rome Declaration.<\/span><\/p>\n While intended as\u00a0a panacea that would stifle such controversy, the concept was hotly contested by\u00a0several European leaders, on\u00a0the basis the concept could create a Europe of “first class” and “second class” countries.<\/span><\/p>\n At the time, Lubos Blaha, Chair of\u00a0the Committee of\u00a0the National Council of\u00a0the Slovak Republic for\u00a0European Affairs, succinctly summed up\u00a0these fears.<\/span><\/p>\n “They talk about\u00a0open cooperation. In fact, this will mean that if your opinion does not coincide with\u00a0that of\u00a0the strongest [EU members] in\u00a0just one instance, you won’t be able cooperate with\u00a0them on\u00a0other issues,” Blaha\u00a0previously told Sputnik<\/a><\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n In codified form, the Rome Declaration instead spoke of\u00a0Europe moving at “different paces\u2026 in\u00a0the same direction,” while failing to\u00a0offer concrete timetables\u00a0or commit to\u00a0any specific policies or actions.<\/span><\/p>\n Such equivocation may have been prudent, given a July report<\/a><\/strong><\/span> on\u00a0populism in\u00a0the EU produced by\u00a0the European Policy Information Centre found the total number of\u00a0European voters who support anti-establishment forces stands at\u00a0around 21 percent, and such groups hold power in\u00a0seven member states, a quarter of\u00a0the bloc overall.<\/span><\/p>\n Since then, the October 15 Austrian general election saw the populist, broadly euroskeptic People’s Party win more than\u00a030 over\u00a0of the vote, and the group is set to\u00a0form a government with\u00a0the highly euroskeptic Freedom Party, the leader of\u00a0which is on\u00a0record as\u00a0saying Britain “will probably be better off\u00a0after Brexit.”<\/span><\/p>\n Both parties, and any resultant government the pair form, will likely be committed to\u00a0downsizing the EU’s role in\u00a0the country, and other member states.<\/span><\/p>\n Vienna is scheduled hold the EU presidency in\u00a0the second half of\u00a02018, just as\u00a0Brussels seeks to\u00a0conclude Brexit talks.<\/span><\/p>\n Moreover, the anti-establishment Alternative for\u00a0Deutschland (AfD) gained 94 seats in\u00a0Germany’s October federal election. It stood on\u00a0a platform critical of\u00a0further\u00a0European integration, institution of\u00a0inter-European immigration measures and dissolution of\u00a0the eurozone.<\/span><\/p>\n Italy, a country yet ravaged by\u00a0the 2010-2012 debt crisis, is also scheduled to\u00a0hold an election before\u00a0May 2018. Opinion polls consistently<\/a><\/strong><\/span> place the highly euroskeptic Five Star Movement at\u00a0the top of\u00a0the field.<\/span><\/p>\nImpending Collapse?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Populism on\u00a0the Rise<\/strong><\/h2>\n