{"id":178735,"date":"2018-11-07T06:09:10","date_gmt":"2018-11-07T06:09:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=178735"},"modified":"2018-11-11T08:23:19","modified_gmt":"2018-11-11T08:23:19","slug":"black-monday-iranian-analysts-explain-why-us-sanctions-unlikely-to-succeed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=178735","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Black Monday&#8221;: Iranian Analysts Explain Why US Sanctions Unlikely to Succeed"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\">Sputnik News &#8212; Nov 5, 2018<\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Iranian-oil-exports-to-China-increase.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-48197\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Iranian-oil-exports-to-China-increase.jpg\" alt=\"Iranian oil exports to China increase\" width=\"540\" height=\"303\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">On Monday, November 5th, the new US sanctions against Iran take effect. Sputnik discussed the sanctions&#8217; implications for Tehran with Iranian economic experts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Seyyed Saeed Mirtorabi Hosseini, an Iranian oil and gas analyst from\u00a0Kharazmi University, told Sputnik that the United States will won&#8217;t able to\u00a0achieve its goals and bring Iranian oil export to\u00a0a complete halt since\u00a0the main importers of\u00a0Iranian &#8220;black gold&#8221; have stated that they will continue cooperation with\u00a0Iran:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">&#8220;As for\u00a0oil, the United States has already taken the first steps, held talks with\u00a0some importers of\u00a0Iranian oil and tried to\u00a0make these countries either reduce or stop buying oil from\u00a0Iran. However, the reality is that the United States will not be able to\u00a0reduce the sales of\u00a0Iranian oil to\u00a0zero, since\u00a0India, China, Japan and a number of\u00a0European countries made it clear that they are not going to\u00a0stop buying oil from\u00a0Iran. China has not reduced purchases, only Japan has reduced imports of\u00a0Iranian oil, but\u00a0then Japan still hasn&#8217;t made up\u00a0its mind.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Mirtorabi believes that if the decline in\u00a0exports from\u00a0Iran is 1 million barrels per day, then this reduction will be compensated by <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #ccffff; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/sputniknews.com\/middleeast\/20181104\/1069490916.html\">unofficial sales by\u00a0the Iranian government<\/a><\/strong><\/span>:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">&#8220;Probably, oil purchases will fall by\u00a01-1.5 million barrels per day. This reduction could affect the economy, as\u00a0well as\u00a0put psychological pressure on\u00a0Iran. However, one must keep in\u00a0mind that the Iranian government has stated that it will continue to\u00a0sell oil in\u00a0different ways. Of course, there is no need to\u00a0voice publicly your plans. Iran already has experience and can sell significant amounts of\u00a0oil in\u00a0unofficial ways.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">According to\u00a0Mirtorabi, there will be difficulties with\u00a0financial estimates. However, despite\u00a0this, the analyst believes that the new US sanctions will not be strongly felt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Dr Peyman Molavi from\u00a0the Iranian Economic Association, noting that a number of\u00a0sanctions have already been introduced, said that the new US sanctions would be more symbolic. Dr Molavi believes that the banking sector will be the first to\u00a0feel a significant negative effect from\u00a0the sanctions, but\u00a0in the future Iran, using circumvention mechanisms will be able to\u00a0circumvent this barrier.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">&#8220;In the banking sector, the cost of <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #ccffff; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/sputniknews.com\/middleeast\/20181104\/1069493771.html\">international financial transactions<\/a><\/strong><\/span> is increasing, and communication with\u00a0banks is decreasing. Increasing the cost of\u00a0financial operations creates a number of\u00a0difficulties for\u00a0Iranian companies,&#8221; the expert explained.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The aim of\u00a0the sanctions is to\u00a0exert pressure not only on\u00a0the economy but\u00a0also on\u00a0the population, Molavi said:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">&#8220;When we talk about\u00a0sanctions, against\u00a0Russia or any other country, not only the economy but\u00a0also ordinary people are impacted by\u00a0them. Ordinary people are the ones who are the first to\u00a0feel the effects of\u00a0a decrease in\u00a0investment, fluctuations of\u00a0national currency. The right government policy can restrain the blow and reduce the pressure on\u00a0its citizens.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Speaking about\u00a0whether the EU can help Iran in\u00a0solving its problems, the expert stressed that the sanctions increase the risks associated with\u00a0investing in\u00a0Iran, which leads to\u00a0a decrease in\u00a0the credibility of\u00a0this country at\u00a0the international level, and the demand for\u00a0Iran&#8217;s goods and services decreases. &#8220;New sanctions will have a negative impact on\u00a0investing in\u00a0foreign projects. There are people in\u00a0Iran who also want to\u00a0invest. They are waiting to\u00a0see where the sanctions will lead the country,&#8221; the economist explained.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Dr Molavi also said that if Iran can bypass the sanctions and sell 1 million barrels of\u00a0oil a day, then the blow to\u00a0the economy will be minimal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">On November 5, the second package of\u00a0US sanctions, re-introduced after\u00a0Washington&#8217;s withdrawal from\u00a0the Joint Comprehensive Plan of\u00a0Action (JCPOA) and targeting, in particular, Iran&#8217;s oil sector, takes effect. When commenting on\u00a0the restrictions, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran would continue selling oil despite\u00a0the introduction of\u00a0the US sanctions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">US Secretary of\u00a0State Mike Pompeo announced on\u00a0Friday the United States would grant temporary waivers to\u00a0eight countries to\u00a0allow them to\u00a0continue importing oil from\u00a0Iran after\u00a0November 5, adding that six of\u00a0the countries agreed to\u00a0significantly reduce imports of\u00a0Iranian oil, while two others plan to\u00a0halt their imports entirely.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sputniknews.com\/analysis\/201811051069510776-iran-economy-sanctions-us\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India, China, Japan and a number of European countries have already indicated that they will not stop buying Iranian oil <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-178735","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-Iran"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/178735","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=178735"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/178735\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":178763,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/178735\/revisions\/178763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=178735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=178735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=178735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}