It will be critical of course to establish the key necessities in making the case. Means, motive, and opportunity.<\/strong> Once these are established, we then proceed to establishing that this is the most probable case even as others had one, two, or even all three of these and this will be done in part by countering some of the nevertheless intelligent but imperfect reasoning now being printed regarding possible theories. In general, the pro-Russian media sphere is at this time \u2018following up\u2019 on the quite recent Russian official pronouncements that the SAA themselves accidentally shot down the Il-20, even while nominally blaming Israel and naming it \u2018responsible\u2019 for the incident.<\/span><\/p>\n What the Russians claim is that Israeli craft using the Il-20 for cover \u2018confused\u2019 the SAA system and that the SAA system hit the Russian Il-20. We will explain that while this is possible, it is unlikely, and in fact the least likely of any realistic scenarios given the tremendous preparation and planning that goes into these events.<\/span><\/p>\n Why France?<\/span><\/p>\n The US wants to further damage Franco-Russian relations. France under multiple governments since 2011, has called for Assad to step down, and has already threatened \u2018military action\u2019 against Syria, so relations between these two countries are already \u2018ruined\u2019. But relations between France and Syria aren\u2019t critical for peace, stability, and the general project for Eurasian-European integration. However, Franco-Russian relations are very critical, and while it\u2019s been noted previously by experts that the aim of the U.S is to permanently poison EU-RF relations, Russia therefore is the obvious party that has the least interest in escalating tensions or further souring relations with France.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n We can see this in any number of cases, but specifically\u00a0 in how they dealt with the Turkish downing of the Russian plane a few years ago over Syrian skies. Their aim was to de-escalate, and ultimately show that the Turkish pilot involved was part of a directly NATO controlled part of the Turkish military that was operating, essentially \u2018rogue\u2019 and not under Erdogan\u2019s orders. When the coup attempt happened later, this same Turkish pilot was named in that group of anti-Erdogan coup-plotters. Russia did not use the opportunity to try to further worsen ties with Turkey. In fact, they used the opportunity to eventually strengthen ties with Turkey. This was wise, and most prudent, regardless of what actual facts were in play.<\/span><\/p>\n Last night Lattakia was attacked by navy assets off the Syrian coast, as well as Israeli airforce, and Russia appears to be saying it was \u2018also\u2019 France insofar as they report that \u2018French missile launches were detected\u2019 during the attack. FRN is clear that Russia \u2018appears\u2019 to be saying it was France that hit Lattakia, but isn\u2019t saying this conclusively. This point will be explained.<\/span><\/p>\n This is an observational approach to information sharing, rather than deductive or conclusive. It also runs the two lines of information together, without necessarily connecting them. Russian official announcements, and Russian state run or synergy media like Sputnik, have all run the story the same way \u2013 running the two lines of information together, back to back, without necessarily connecting them causally or deductively. This will be important in untangling what Russia is officially, vs. not officially saying regarding the downing of the Russian Il-20 military aircraft off the coast of Syria and the death of 15 of its crew. The following screen shot with arrows and explanation added by FRN is meant to help prove and illustrate how Russian media is approaching this question.<\/span><\/p>\n Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n So we have a Russian plane downed possibly by French Naval ship, or by the SAA air defense forces protecting Lattakia itself. The second proposition is the least credible. So let\u2019s now look at how the story looks specifically about the downed Russian\u00a0Il-20 military aircraft. Hopefully, in terms of the veracity of FRN\u2019s claims, Sputnik refrains from changing its textual presentation here<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, so nevertheless we provide screenshots immediately below which will allow us to see two things.<\/span><\/p>\n One, that the pattern fits the same as the screen shot above,<\/strong> an event is registered as happening, and the activities of another party are named, but no connection is specifically made. Fact 1 and Fact 2 are divided. The reader is left to make of it what they will.<\/span><\/p>\n If this led some readers to \u2018mistakenly\u2019 conclude at first that France had something to do with the takedown of the Il-20, they would, by Russian accounts, be \u2018officially\u2019 wrong, but most probably right. We can see the same Russian official method of information dissemination is used in the above screenshot, but in fact and indeed, Russia is not specifically ruling out that the registered missile launches had something to do with what hit Lattakia.<\/span><\/p>\n At the same time, (and this gets more complicated, but referring to the above map will help,) we propose instead that something else happened. Israeli warplanes hit Lattakia, and perhaps Israeli ground systems were also aimed and hit Lattakia (we have no reports of the latter), and perhaps also French naval vessels\u2019 missiles hit Lattakia, but again this last point is not in fact established by Russian media per se. If Russia later revises or updates this story has events emerge, and diplomatic interactions take a certain or more clear, or more definable direction, then perhaps Russian reportage on this will change, retroactively. But this is where the infowar stood at the time of the events, and through the early afternoon of September 18th, Belgrade time.<\/span><\/p>\n Secondly, readers will take note of the inclusion of the French denial.<\/strong> This French denial is bizarre and entirely out of place since no one accused France. Do innocent parties randomly and yet officially deny involvement in things of which they are not formally accused? In most cases, no they do not.<\/span><\/p>\n Russian Ministry of Defence map. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n From Sputnik, also:<\/span><\/p>\n <<\u201cIsraeli Side Is Fully Responsible For Il-20 Crash\u201d<\/strong> \u2013 Russian defense minister<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly called on the Israeli side to refrain from attacks on Syrian territory, which threaten the security of Russian servicemen,\u201d the Russian Defense Ministry said.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIsrael is fully responsible for the crash of the Russian Il-20 military aircraft off the coast of Syria and the death of its crew\u201d, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated.<\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s highly intelligent on the part of Russia, for many reasons, that they blame Israel for this if the option is France. Russia refuses to countenance steps leading to any war when other means are clear & available.<\/span><\/p>\n Arrangements are in place to obviate the possibility of any kind of inadvertent US or NATO strike on a Russian asset. The situation in Latakia was complex and all details clearly have not yet been ascertained. But outright war is no answer whatever emerges ultimately. This was the thought process of Russian authorities, and the basis as well, of their disinfo campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n It also makes perfect sense why they couldn\u2019t accuse Israel of actually taking down the plane. They did not, and the physical evidence could never establish that. Those familiar with the ins and outs of the MH-17 case show that a BUK system attack is not commensurate with the physical remains of the MH-17. In that case, it was attacked by another plane, an attack plane. For these reasons, the Atlanticists have not dealt with the physical evidence, which they are in charge of, but which DPR people and independent journalists were, fortunately, able to collect before NATO came in and did clean up.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cAt the moment, the location of the plane\u2019s crash is found 27 kilometers to the west of the village of Banias [Latakia province],\u201d the ministry said.<\/span><\/p>\n Russian Defense Ministry Views Provocative Israeli Actions in Syria as Hostile<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe see these provocative actions of Israel as hostile,\u201d Konashenkov said, adding that 15 Russian servicemen were killed as a result of the \u201cirresponsible actions\u201d of Israel\u2019s Defense Forces, which violated \u201cthe spirit of the Israeli-Russian partnership.\u201d>><\/span><\/p>\n <<According to the spokesman, the Russian Defense Ministry reserves the right to an \u201cadequate response\u201d following the Israeli attack.>><\/span><\/p>\n Israel has refused comment, and this makes sense. <\/strong>They can\u2019t deny their planes were up there, and Russia has confused the entire FUKUS and Israeli designed script. They have to sit back and think about this one.<\/span><\/p>\n See, if Russia\u2019s accepting the Western statements about Syrian friendly fire were predicted, then this would have been obvious by their early availability for comment. This means that something has happened which they need to \u2018work through the variables\u2019 to answer to.<\/span><\/p>\n The French \u2018early denial\u2019 when no accusation was made, means that the West had planned for France to be blamed, the French authorities were prepared to carry out their script and deny the accusations that the Russians were \u2018obviously\u2019 going to make.<\/span><\/p>\n Then something happened, and Russia didn\u2019t make that accusation. But there were the French authorities, going forward with the script, and in an incoherent way which really exposes what they were up to, and tells us all quite clearly what was planned, and yet all the while Russia doesn\u2019t at all blame France. Ridiculous, brilliant, absurd.<\/span><\/p>\n A critical factor here is that the whole event comes just hours after Erdogan and Putin\u2019s meeting for a political solution concerning Idlib, them shortly after France and Israel began a bombardment campaign targeting Lattakia, Homs, Jableh & Tartous and\u00a0downing a Russian Il-20 with 14 soldiers on board in a clear act of provocation, meant to further cool Franco-Russian relations.<\/span><\/p>\n The western MSM was the first to falsely claim that the Syrian air defense system downed the plane while actually 4 Israeli fighters or multi-role<\/span>s were right above in the air. But when the Russian plane was hit, it was a distant 35 KM off the Syrian coast. Russia is being prudent, for all the reasons explained here, in going along with this narrative \u2013 which much surprises the Atlanticists.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe Israeli pilots used the Russian plane as cover and set it up to be targeted by the Syrian air defense forces. As a consequence, the Il-20, which has radar cross-section much larger than the F-16, was shot down by an S-200 system missile\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe consider these provocative actions by Israel as hostile. Fifteen Russian military service members have died because of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military. This is absolutely contrary to the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n While Israel is a likely enough suspect in terms of motive and opportunity, it doesn\u2019t have the means \u2013 not means that can be established or that were verified to have been used, that is. Claiming it was Israel would require Russia to publicly divulge whether SAMS were used or not to take down the Il-20. But Russia would not be believed (honestly so) if they presented Israel as the attacker, because Israel didn\u2019t use SAMS in that attack, Russia did not register Israeli missile launches. Only French (and, Syrian). \u00a0And so the US, the Atlanticists, FUKUS and Israel, believed that Russia would blame France.<\/span><\/p>\n It was specifically SAMS that were used, not Israeli planes that shot down the IL-20. The data would show that, and if claiming it was Israel, then Russia would be facing a reverse MH-17 scenario, where Russia is in possession both of the launch data and of the plane wreckage, meaning that they aren\u2019t in the position to credibly debunk the Western intelligence and MSM line that it was an \u2018accidental friendly fire by the SAA\u2019. Russia would be accused of faking the evidence if they tried to counter the claim, and it would do nothing to promote whatever response they need to make towards Israel, in revising their deconfliction agreement, or \u2018partnership\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n With the US claiming that it was a SAM, and Russia having to show it was a French SAM, Russia is in the position of having to blame France and rhetorically defend the SAA. What benefit is there in that? Russia already defends and supports the SAA. The SAA can go along with the lie, it serves the mid-term strategic objectives well, as we\u2019ve explained.<\/span><\/p>\n Franco-Russian relations can get worse. It will be hard enough to see an improvement, and this is Moscow\u2019s real desire. But relations can get worse, and exchanging accusations and for Moscow to blame Paris, will see relations get worse. Putin\u2019s mixed support base, given the various short term and long term goals of the RF, and the various pillars of Russian power which all agree that good relations with the two EU pillars \u2013 Germany and France \u2013 is above almost all else, equal to good relations with China \u2013 allows us to understand Russia and Putin\u2019s operating mandate.<\/span><\/p>\n While some may counter that Israel and France have been firing cruise missiles at Syrian territory, missiles which are designed to attack ground targets, not take down aircraft, this point hasn\u2019t been established or made public, nor at this point \u2013 given that Russia is following the Western MSM and intelligence narrative on this \u2013 ought we expect Russia to present anything else.<\/span><\/p>\n So functionally speaking, without a full disclosure on the part of the Russians towards the public, this opened up the possibility that Syria, while taking aim at \u201cIsraeli\u201d planes may have accidentally missed its target, and then locked on to the Russian plane. By itself, ignoring the geopolitics, likelihood, IFF systems in place etc., this may seem credible enough to some. Unfortunately, it fails to explain the French capacity.<\/span><\/p>\n The Russians would have real-time data to the moment the plane was hit. Also, a critical target to defeat a Russian fleet, with that plane out of the air, the information flow is handicapped on the Russian side. The entire caper could have been designed to eliminate that particular plane to see what the Russian side\u2019s \u2018plugging the gap\u2019 capabilities are.<\/span><\/p>\n So this served a \u2018war games\u2019 objective, not only a PR-diplomacy-media (failed) objective.<\/span><\/p>\n The Russians have not, at least yet, claimed that all that France launched were SSM missiles (surface to surface), everything printed as of publishing time Belgrade, afternoon on the 18th September, indicates only that \u2018Russia detected French launch of missiles\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n In fact, the French vessel present, and involved in the attacks, a FREMM called the Auvergne<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<\/a>has been equipped with missiles that can target air<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, by design. These are the Aster missile family, and the Auvergne as a FREMM, multipurpose frigate, is standard equipped this way by the French navy. Again, Russia did not report that it recorded that France had only launched SSM missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n![\"Sputnik](\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Sputnik-article.jpg\")
<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe Russian Defense Ministry has shared a map of\u00a0the September 17 attack in\u00a0Syria.<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/a><<Il-20 Crash Site in Latakia Province is Located<\/strong>>><\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<<Kremlin Extremely Concerned About Events that Led to Il-20\u2019s Destruction>>, more from Sputnik.\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n