Last week\u2019s game-changing triumph in northern Syria has moved the Russian-led coalition to within striking distance of a decisive victory in Aleppo.\u00a0 After breaking a 40 month-long siege on the cities of\u00a0 Nubl and Zahra, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has encircled the country\u2019s\u00a0industrial hub\u00a0and is\u00a0gradually tightening the noose. Crucial supply-lines to the north have been cut leaving the Sunni extremists and anti-government militias stranded inside a vast, urban cauldron. It\u2019s only a matter of time before these\u00a0disparate renegades are either killed or forced to surrender. A victory in Aleppo will change the course of the war by restoring government control over the densely-populated western corridor. This is why the Obama administration is frantically searching for ways to either delay or derail the Russian-led juggernaut and avoid the impending collapse of US policy in Syria.<\/span><\/p>\n Recent peace talks in Geneva were convened with one goal in mind, to prevent Syrian President Bashar al Assad and loyalist forces from retaking Aleppo. The negotiations failed, however, when Washington\u2019s mercurial allies, the so called \u201cmoderate\u201d rebels, refused to participate. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Syrian opposition withdrew \u201cunder pressure from Saudi Arabia and Turkey, two of the main backers of the rebels.\u201d\u00a0 The WSJ\u2019s admission was later confirmed by Secretary of State John Kerry who according to a report in the Middle East Eye \u201cblamed the Syrian opposition for leaving the talks and paving the way for a joint offensive by the Syrian government and Russia on Aleppo.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cDon\u2019t blame me,\u201d Kerry said, \u201cBlame the opposition. It was the opposition that didn\u2019t want to negotiate and didn\u2019t want a ceasefire, and they walked away.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n None of this will surprise readers who followed the talks closely. The meetings were surrounded by\u00a0confusion from the very onset. The US delegation headed by Kerry was focused entirely on reaching an agreement that would involve a ceasefire and stop the government-led onslaught. The Saudis, Turks and opposition leaders, however, were on a different page altogether. They\u00a0seemed oblivious to the dire situation on the ground where their jihadist foot soldiers were taking heavier losses by the day.\u00a0 Kerry, the realist, was looking for a way to\u00a0stand-down\u00a0and save\u00a0US-backed militants from certain annihilation. But\u00a0the Saudis and Turks felt they had a strong-enough hand to make demands. The clash in viewpoints\u00a0was bound to produce disappointing results, which it did. The meetings were\u00a0cancelled before they even began. Nothing was settled. Here\u2019s more from the WSJ:<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cAbout a half-dozen cities and towns targeted in the new regime offensives have one thing in common: All were held by a mix of Islamist and moderate rebel groups funded and armed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Complicating the picture is that some, but not all, of these groups collaborate with the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. That gives the regime and its allies fodder for their claim that they are fighting terrorism.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n (\u201cSaudi Arabia, Turkey Pushed Syrian Opposition to Leave Talks<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u201c, Wall Street Journal<\/em>)<\/span><\/p>\n This should dispel any illusion that that the fighters that are trying to topple the government are merely disgruntled nationalists determined to remove an \u201cevil dictator\u201d. That is not the case at all. While there are a fair amount of indigenous insurgents, the bulk of fighters are Sunni extremists bent on removing Assad and creating an Islamic Caliphate. This is why Moscow refused to implement a ceasefire during the talks in Geneva. Russia adamantly opposes any remedy that allows internationally-recognized terrorists from escaping\u00a0their eternal reward.<\/span><\/p>\n Kerry has deliberately misled the public on this matter. Just last week, he said,\u00a0\u201cRussia has indicated to me very directly they are prepared to do a ceasefire\u2026 The Iranians confirmed in London just a day and a half ago they will support a ceasefire now.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n This is false and Kerry knows it. Moscow has tried to be flexible about other so called \u201cmoderate\u201d opposition forces, but when it comes to ISIS,\u00a0 Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group), Jaysh Al-Mujahiddeen, Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki, and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, Russian leaders have repeatedly said that that they will not relent until the\u00a0jihadists are either killed or captured.\u00a0\u00a0 This is why Russia\u2019s airstrikes continued during Geneva, because most of the fighters in Aleppo are dyed-in-the-wool terrorists.<\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s worth noting that the Russian-led military offensive clearly\u00a0hews to UN resolution 2254 which states:<\/span><\/p>\n \u2026\u00a0for Member States to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, Al-Nusra Front (ANF), and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al Qaeda or ISIL, and other terrorist <\/strong>groups, [\u2026] and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Syria, and notes that the aforementioned ceasefire will not apply to offensive or defensive actions against these individuals, groups, undertakings and entities<\/strong>, as set forth in the 14 November 2015 ISSG Statement.\u201d (Thanks to Moon of Alabama)<\/span><\/p>\n In other words,\u00a0Moscow is not going to comply with any ceasefire that spares homicidal\u00a0jihadists or undermines UN resolution 2254.\u00a0Russian military operations are going to continue until ISIS, al Nusra and the other\u00a0terrorist militias\u00a0are defeated.<\/span><\/p>\n Even so, Kerry has not abandoned the diplomatic track. In fact, Kerry plans to meet Russian Foreign Minsiter Sergei Lavrov in Munich on February 11 for a meeting of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) to discuss \u201call the aspects of the Syrian settlement in line with the UN Security Council resolution 2254.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The emergency meeting underscores the Obama\u2019s administration\u2019s utter desperation\u00a0in the face of the inexorable Russian-led military offensive. It\u2019s clear now that Obama and his lieutenants see the handwriting on the wall and realize that their sinister plan to use proxy\u00a0armies to remove Assad and splinter the country into three powerless regions is doomed to fail.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how the ISW summed it up on the Sic Semper Tyrannis<\/em> website:<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cBattlefield realities rather than great power politics will determine the ultimate terms of a settlement to end the Syrian Civil War. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies in Russia and Iran have internalized this basic principle even as Washington and other Western capitals pinned their hopes upon UN-sponsored Geneva Talks, which faltered only two days after they began on February 1, 2016. Russian airpower and Iranian manpower have brought President Assad within five miles of completing the encirclement of Aleppo City, the largest urban center in Syria and an opposition stronghold since 2012. \u2026The full encirclement of Aleppo City would fuel a humanitarian catastrophe, shatter opposition morale, fundamentally challenge Turkish strategic ambitions, and deny the opposition its most valuable bargaining chip before the international community.\u201d\u00a0 (\u201cISW recognizes reality in western Syria<\/a>\u201c, Institute for the Study of War (ISW)<\/span><\/p>\n Last week\u2019s fighting in northern Aleppo has transformed the battlespace and shifted the momentum in favor of the government, but it has not yet dampened support for the jihadists in places like Ankara or Riyadh. In fact, the Saudis have offered to deploy ground troops to Syria provided they are put under US command. As for Turkey, according to The Hill:\u00a0\u201cMoscow\u2019s Defense Ministry (has) accused Turkey of planning a military invasion of Syria.\u201d Here\u2019s more from\u00a0the same article:<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe Russian Defence Ministry registers a growing number of signs of hidden preparation of the Turkish Armed Forces for active actions on the territory of Syria,\u201d ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a statement\u2026.Russia claimed\u00a0(to) have \u201creasonable grounds to suspect intensive preparation of Turkey for a military invasion\u201d of Syria.\u201d (The Hill<\/a><\/strong><\/span>)<\/span><\/p>\n Turkish officials have denied that\u00a0they\u00a0are preparing for an invasion, but at the same time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\u00a0has\u00a0admitted\u00a0that Turkey will not stay on the sidelines if it is asked to participate in a future campaign. This is from Bloomberg News:<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country should not repeat in Syria the same mistake it made in Iraq when it turned down a U.S. request to be part of the coalition that toppled Saddam Hussein.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t want to fall into the same mistake in Syria as in Iraq,\u201d the president said, recounting how Turkey\u2019s parliament denied a U.S. request to use its territories for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. \u201cIt\u2019s important to see the horizon. What\u2019s going on in Syria can only go on for so long. At some point it has to change,\u201d he told journalists on the return flight from a tour of Latin America, according to Hurriyet newspaper.\u201d (\u201cErdogan Signals Turkey Won\u2019t Stay Out of Syria If Asked to Join<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u201c, Bloomberg)<\/span><\/p>\n While it\u2019s impossible to know whether Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the US will actually invade Syria, it\u2019s clear by the panicky reaction to the encirclement of Aleppo, that all three countries feel their regional ambitions are more closely aligned with those of the jihadists than with the elected government in Damascus.\u00a0 This tacit alliance between the militants and their sponsors speaks volumes about the credibility of Washington\u2019s fake war on terror.<\/span><\/p>\n Finally, in less than five months, loyalist forces aided by heavy Russian air cover, have shifted the balance of power in Syria,\u00a0forced thousands of\u00a0terrorist insurgents to\u00a0flee\u00a0their strongholds in the west, cleared the way for the return of millions of refugees and displaced civilians, and sabotaged\u00a0the malign plan to reshape the country so it better serves\u00a0Washington\u2019s\u00a0geopolitical interests.<\/span><\/p>\n The war is far from over, but it\u2019s beginning to look like Putin\u2019s gamble\u00a0is going to\u00a0pay off after all.<\/span><\/p>\n Mike Whitney ives in Washington state. He is a contributor to\u00a0Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion<\/a>\u00a0(AK Press).\u00a0Hopeless is also available in a\u00a0Kindle edition<\/a>.\u00a0He can be reached at\u00a0fergiewhitney@msn.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n