{"id":121773,"date":"2015-09-19T06:31:24","date_gmt":"2015-09-19T06:31:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=121773"},"modified":"2015-09-23T11:59:52","modified_gmt":"2015-09-23T11:59:52","slug":"putins-line-in-the-sand-no-regime-change-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=121773","title":{"rendered":"Putin\u2019s Line in the Sand: No Regime Change in Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mike Whitney — CounterPunch Sept 17, 2015<\/a><\/h1>\n

\"Obama<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cObama administration officials, who have been negotiating with Turkey for months, said Thursday that they had reached an agreement for manned and unmanned American warplanes to carry out aerial attacks on Islamic State positions from air bases at Incirlik and Diyarbakir. The agreement was described by one senior administration official as a \u201cgame changer.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

New York Times<\/em><\/strong><\/span>,<\/a> July 23, 2015<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Syrian war can divided into two parts: The pre-Incirlik period and the post-Incirlik period. The pre-Incirlik period is roughly the four year stretch during which US-backed Islamic militias and al Qaida-linked groups fought the Syrian army with the intention of removing President Bashar al Assad from power. This first phase of the war ended in a draw.<\/span><\/p>\n

The post-Incirlik period looks like it could produce an entirely different outcome due to the fact that the US will be able to deploy its drones and warplanes from a Turkish airbase (Incirlik) that\u2019s just 15 minutes flying-time from Syria. That will boost the number of sorties the USAF can able to carry out while increasing the effectiveness of its jihadi forces on the ground which will conduct their operations under the protection of US air cover. This will greatly improve their chances for success.<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0New York Times<\/em>\u00a0calls the Incirlik deal a \u201cgame-changer\u201d which is an understatement. By allowing US F-16s to patrol the skies over Syria, Washington will impose a de facto no-fly zone over the country severely limiting Assad\u2019s ability to battle the US-backed militias that have seized large swaths of the countryside and are now descending on Damascus. And while the war cannot be won by airpower alone, this new tactical reality tilts the playing field in favor the jihadis. In other words, the Incirlik agreement changes everything.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

The Obama administration now believes that regime change is within its reach. Yes, they know it will require some back-up from US Special Forces and Turkish combat troops, but it\u2019s all doable.\u00a0 This is why Obama has shrugged off Russia\u2019s plan for a transitional government or for forming a coalition to defeat ISIS.\u00a0 The US doesn\u2019t have to compromise on these matters because, after all, it has a strategically-located airbase from which it can protect its proxy-army, bomb cross-border targets, and control the skies over Syria. All Obama needs to do is intensify the war effort, put a little more pressure on Assad, and wait for the regime to collapse. This is why we should expect a dramatic escalation as we\u00a0begin Phase 2 of the conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin knows this, which is why he\u2019s sending more weapons, supplies and advisors to Syria. He\u2019s signaling to Washington that he knows what they\u2019re up to and that he\u2019ll respond if they carry things too far. In an interview with Russia\u2019s state Channel 1, Putin said, \u201cWe have our ideas about what we will do and how we will do it in case the situation develops toward the use of force or otherwise. We have our plans.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The administration is very nervous about Putin\u2019s plans which is why they keep probing to see if they can figure out what he has up his sleeve. Just days ago,\u00a0 Secretary of State John Kerry phoned his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to express his concerns about \u201can imminent enhanced Russian military buildup\u201d in Syria. The call was a clumsy attempt to trick Lavrov into volunteering information that might shed light on what Moscow intends to do if Washington goes ahead with its regime change strategy.\u00a0 But Russia\u2019s foreign minister didn\u2019t take the bait. He stuck to his script and didn\u2019t tell Kerry anything he didn\u2019t already know.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the fact is, Putin is not going to allow Assad to be removed by force. It\u2019s that simple. Obama and his advisors suspect this, but they are not 100 percent certain so they keep looking for confirmation one way or the other. But Putin is not going to provide a clear answer because he doesn\u2019t want to tip his hand or appear confrontational. But that doesn\u2019t mean he\u2019s not resolute. He is, and Washington knows it. In effect, Putin has drawn a line in the sand and told the US that if they cross that line, there\u2019s going to trouble.<\/span><\/p>\n

So it\u2019s up to Obama really. He can either seek a peaceful solution along the lines that Moscow has recommended or push for regime change and risk a confrontation with Russia. Those are the two choices.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, Washington doesn\u2019t have an \u201coff\u201d switch anymore, so changing policy is really not in the cards. Instead, the US war machine will continue to lumber ahead erratically until it hits an impasse and sputters to a halt. Once again, the immovable object will prevail over the unstoppable force (as it did in Ukraine), albeit at great cost to the battered people of Syria, their nation and the entire region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Keep in mind, that the imperial plan for Syria is subtler than many people realize. As the Brookings Institute\u2019s Michael E. O\u2019Hanlon states in his piece titled \u201cDeconstructing Syria: A new strategy for America\u2019s most hopeless war\u201d:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe plan\u2026 would not explicitly seek to overthrow him (Assad), so much as deny him control of territory that he might still aspire to govern again. The autonomous zones would be liberated with the clear understanding that there was no going back to rule by Assad or a successor. In any case, Assad would not be a military target under this concept, but areas he currently controls\u2026 would be. And if Assad delayed too long in accepting a deal for exile, he could inevitably face direct dangers to his rule and even his person.\u201d (\u201cDeconstructing Syria: A new strategy for America\u2019s most hopeless war\u201d, Michael E. O\u2019Hanlon, Brookings Institute)<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This is the basic plan: To seize major cities and large parts of the countryside,\u00a0 disrupt supply-lines and destroy vital civilian infrastructure, and to\u00a0progressively undermine Assad\u2019s ability to govern the country. The ultimate goal is to break the state into a million disconnected enclaves ruled by armed mercenaries, al Qaida-linked affiliates, and local warlords. This is Washington\u2019s diabolical plan for Syria. It is strikingly similar to the Zionist plan to \u201ceffect the division of the whole area into small states by the dissolution of all existing Arab states.\u201d (\u201cThe Zionist Plan for the Middle East\u201d, Israel Shahak) In fact, it is virtually\u00a0identical.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s clear that Obama is emboldened by the Incirlik deal and believes that, with Turkey\u2019s help, he can achieve US imperial ambitions in Syria. But it\u2019s not going to happen.\u00a0 Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are prepared to defend their ally Assad and stop Washington dead-in-its-tracks.\u00a0 Obama will have succeeded in destroying another sovereign nation and scattering its people across the Middle East and Europe. But the US mission will fall short of its original objectives. There will be no regime change in Syria. Putin, Nasrallah and Khamenei will make sure of it.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

MIKE WHITNEY<\/em>\u00a0<\/strong>lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to\u00a0Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion<\/a>\u00a0(AK Press).\u00a0Hopeless is also available in a\u00a0Kindle edition<\/a>.\u00a0He can be reached at\u00a0fergiewhitney@msn.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s clear that Obama believes tha he can achieve US imperial ambitions in Syria. But it\u2019s not going to happen. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are prepared to defend their ally Assad <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,83],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-121773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-Commentary","category-syria"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=121773"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121773\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":121788,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121773\/revisions\/121788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=121773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=121773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=121773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}