by Down The Middle – November 25, 2005
If one is to believe the media reports of late, it would appear that all eyes are turning toward Syria as the next "terrorist" nation to find themselves in the cross-hairs of the neo-con juggernaut. Not long ago, I was presenting the evidence of a probable "preemptive" or "retaliatory" strike in the making upon the Islamic Republic of Iran, and long before that, I was guessing Syria. I suppose it really doesn't matter who draws the short straw. They're both on the Administration's short list, and their day is coming soon enough.
I never doubted the order of battle for the Neo-con's extended Middle-Eastern campaign would begin with Iraq, because of the logistics and Mr. Hussein's obvious lack of allies. Chances were slim to invisible that Iran would come to Saddam's aid, and if the Syrian Bathists decided to jump in we could and would have defeated both nations, altogether, even if taking more time and causalities doing so.
As it is, the Syrians are still the logical next target, so we can clear our left flank of the weaker army, consolidate our forces in theater, and prepare to march on the "big one"...Iran. The trouble with this scenario is that you would leave the Persian hosts at your back, with them well knowing that they are next on the hit list.
Having already shaken hands with the Syrians on a mutual defense pact, the Persians may not wait until they themselves are attacked (the smart play for them), but may immediately launch missile strikes upon our navy and push ground units into areas of Iraq. This, in itself would probably please the administration, giving them the excuse for immediate retaliation and invasion.
The fact is, whichever country we attack first, we could find ourselves facing a concerted counter-attack of both Syrian and Iranian forces...so, logical or not, the smart play at this time may well be to move on the Persians, where the real power (and the real oil) lies. As I have said, this action could be prompted by an "event"
....but "spreading democracy" would work for the predominantly Arab Khuzestan Province
, which has reportedly experienced demonstrations for independence, and where more than 70% of Iran's known oil and gas reserves lie under the Yadavaran Field. If the Syrians should jump us and the going should get too rough, we still have the Israeli Defense Force "Ace" up our sleeve.
Many of my fellow Americans believe that the debacle of the unending insurgency in Iraq has bogged our forces down to the point that we cannot possibly consider another action at this time. Although the Sunni insurgency is bleeding the resolve of our citizens here at home...and I certainly do not intend to imply an air of unimportance to the young men and women who have lost their lives fighting there...in the big picture, an insurgency can do little to thwart a modern army on the move.
We must remember, this thing has never really been about Saddam's WMDs (the one's we gave him)...nor is it about Tehran's insistence on producing "nukular" fuel. The Neo-cons' Middle Eastern policy has always been to kill the "bad guys" (those are the ones who think we are the bad guys), capture the major oil fields and set up "democratic" governments that are willing to "play ball" with the West.....and their oil companies. If this "maneuver" is successful, the neo-cons will have secured energy supplies for the West (of course, we won't have any money left to buy any) and put us in a position to control our "up and coming" economic and military competitors, through the control over the oil.
The reality is, if the neo-con intellectuals had spent the last thirty years thinking up ways to reduce our dependency on foreign oil, instead of trying to figure out how to get their hands on the last drop of oil and pocket the last dollar doing it...we wouldn't have our young people fighting and dying for the black crude now. (Excuse me. That would be "the last Euro")
War is coming! Maybe not today, and maybe not next week.....but war is coming. If I have to throw out a guess, I would say after the holidays, sometime in the first quarter of the new year. The battlefield temperature will be more suitable, Ambassador Bolton will have had enough time to do a "Iranian nukular program" song and dance, over at the U.N., and Billy Bob Joe Bob will get another chance to dress up like a soldier and do the plastic turkey photo op.......before all hell breaks loose!
I believe it's coming, because it is....and always has been, the plan of the neo-con (and a great little bit of global strategy it is). For the third time this century, we are approaching an apex of global domination, and the U.S. is making its move. I have to believe this because, in the last five years, I have not seen these people back off on one little thing. (Hell, he was back, pitching that damn Social Security plan again...just a week ago!) What would have me believe that they will back off now?
Maybe we should have done something thirty years ago. Maybe, we still could.....but I suppose it's too late to think about all that now. The party's on and I don't see anyone rocking the boat. But don't lose heart. Every once in a while, I'm wrong.
Last updated 29/11/2005