Introduction — Feb 15, 2014
Two years is a long time and the clock is now ticking.
Iran already has strong air defences but it lacks long-range air defence systems with which to counter U.S. cruise missile strikes.
These are the weapons that would be used in the opening phase of any military campaign to knock out Iran’s air defences, especially its crucial radar systems and command and control centres.
Until Iran has an effective long-range air-defence system it is still not invulnerable to the sort of sustained air strikes that opened the way for the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
To be sure Iran’s air defences are now considerably more robust and far more sophisticated than Iraq’s ever were. There is no comparison but it would only take more time and determination to overcome them. Moreover, Tehran still has that one crucial weak spot that could be exploited by a determined enough adversary.
It is most certainly beyond Israel’s ability to do so by itself and after Iraq and Afghanistan the U.S. has little appetite for another conflict.
However, it would only take another false flag to change that.
A single lone-gunman wouldn’t be enough. Nor would multiple lone gunmen in separate incidents. Ensuing investigations might reveal too many inconsistencies and raise too many questions for decisive enough action.
No, another major false flag would be required for the Western public to back a full scale strike on Iran. A false flag that would be big enough and sudden enough to justify a sweeping military response without too much political debate beforehand.
The only sort of false flag justifying that sort of response would be one involving nuclear weapons. So be ready for one in the next couple of years. In fact we would say get ready for one in the next 12 months. Ed.
Exclusive: Iran to Launch Home-Made S300 Air-Defense Shield in Two Years
Fars News — Feb 15, 2014
Iran’s top air defense commander announced on Saturday that the country would launch Bavar (Belief) 373 missile defense system – the Iranian version of the sophisticated S-300 long-range air-defense missile shield – in the next two years.
Commander of Khatam ol-Anbia Air Defense Base Brigadier General Farzad Esmayeeli told FNA that bottleneck problems for the construction of Bavar 373 infrastructures have been resolved, adding that development and construction of the highly advanced anti-missile defense system would be accomplished by the end of Iran’s Fifth Five-Year Development Plan (2010-2015).
“We hope to witness a very good system with higher capabilities than the (Russian) S-300 in our air defense structure by the end of the (Development) Plan”, added the General.
The air defense commander reiterated that “the indigenized system will be more powerful than S-300 missile system”.
Another senior Iranian military commander announced last May that the country would soon unveil the home-made long-range air-defense missile system which is similar to the Russian S-300.
“This system, dubbed as Bavar 373, is being developed in the country and will be officially unveiled soon,” Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Army’s Self-Sufficiency Jihad Rear Admiral Farhad Amiri said in May, 2013.
He noted that the Bavar-373 missile defense system has reached the production stage and its subsystems have been already tested.
In 2007, Iran signed a contract worth $800mln to buy five Russian S-300 missile defense systems.
But the deal was scrapped in 2010 by then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who was unilaterally expanding on sanctions against Iran imposed by the UN Security Council.
Iran filed a $4bln lawsuit against Russia in the international arbitration court in Geneva, which is currently pending review.
Moscow has struggled to have the lawsuit dropped, including by offering the Tor anti-aircraft systems as replacement, media reported in December, adding that the offer was rejected by Tehran.
The S-300 is a series of Russian long range surface-to-air missile systems produced by NPO Almaz, all based on the initial S-300P version. The S-300 system was developed to defend against aircraft and cruise missiles for the Soviet Air Defense Forces. Subsequent variations were developed to intercept ballistic missiles.
The S-300 system was first deployed by the Soviet Union in 1979, designed for the air defense of large industrial and administrative facilities, military bases, and control of airspace against enemy strike aircraft.
The Russian version of the missile shield can trace around 100 flying targets simultaneously and destroy a part of them, while the Iranian version is said to be enjoying a higher targeting capability among its other optimized features.
Iran has also optimized the S-200 missile defense system. Mobility and a narrower ready-for-operation time is among the features of the optimized version.