UK population to rise by 10 MILLION in the next 25 years: 60% of increase linked to immigration, ONS says

Matt Chorley — Daily Mail Nov 6, 2013

The UK population is on course to soar by almost 10million in the next 25 years, fuelled mostly by immigration.

Official projections show that by 2037 there will be 73.3million people living here, up from 63.7million in mid-2012.

Around 60 per cent of the increase is linked to migration, including more people moving to the UK and having children when they settle.

Pressure will increase on public services as the number of people in the UK rises, with added demand fuelled by an ageing population.

The number of over-80s is forecast to more than double to 6million by 2037 and the average age of the nation is predicted to rise from 39.7 years now, to 40.6 years in a decade and 42.8 by 2037.

The data will be used by ministers to plan for schools, housing, pensions and benefits in the decades to come.

The predicted extra 9.6million people expected by 2037 is bigger than the current 8.3 million population of London.

Richard Pereira, head of population statistics for the ONS, said: ‘These population projections are used across Government in terms of setting policy, they are used by the Office for Budget Responsibilty (OBR) as a key input for their long-term fiscal projections, they are used by the Department for Work and Pensions for policy on benefits and pensions, and they are used by people like the Department for Education.’

Of the 9.6million increase, 3.8million will come from more births than deaths among people who already live here.

Around 4.2 million will come from people moving to the UK from abroad, and 1.6million will result from immigrants having more children.

The ONS said: ‘Because migration is concentrated at young adult ages, the assumed level of net migration affects the projected number of women of childbearing age and hence the projected number of births.

‘About 60 per cent of the projected increase in the population over the period mid-2012 to mid-2037 is either directly attributable to future migration (43 per cent), or indirectly attributable to the effect of fertility and mortality on these future migrants (17 per cent).’

When the forecasts were made in 2010, the ONS predicted net migration of 200,000-a-year.

Now, the long-term assumption is for net migration to the UK of 165,000-a-year.

This includes an extra 143,500 in England each year, which is 29,000 lower than for the 2010-based projections.

For Wales it is 4,000 lower at 6,000-a-year, and for Scotland it is 2,000 lower at 15,500-a-year. Northern Ireland is unchanged.

The ONS says that overall immigration levels could vary between 225,000 and 105,000 each year

In the next 10 years the number of children under 16 will rise by around a million, hitting 13million in 2022 and remaining at this level for the next 15 years.

However, the there will be a ‘marked increase’ in the population at older ages, the ONS said.
It is the result of the baby-boomers born in the 1960s turning 70.

By 2037 the number of people aged over 80 will more than double while the number over-90s will more than triple.

The number of centenarians is projected to rise from 13,000 in mid-2012 to 111,000 in mid-2037, a more than eightfold increase, the ONS added.

It means that in 25 years time one in 12 of the population will be aged 80 and over.

UKIP election candidate Amjad Bashir said: ‘The figures released today say that 4.3 million more people will be living in the UK in a decade.

‘That’s four times the size of the population of Birmingham. How on earth are public services going to cope?

‘Ten million more people added to the UK population in just 25 years is staggering and it could well be disastrous.’


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