King World News – Jan 10, 2021
Today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE and historic moves in currencies and metals told King World News that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) just intervened in the gold market as all hell is about to break loose in financial markets.
Each week Egon von Greyerz articles are published first on KWN.
January 10 (King World News) – Egon von Greyerz: Donald Trump is probably the luckiest presidential candidate in history to have lost an election. He doesn’t realise it yet as he suffers from a self-inflicted wound in the final moments of his presidency. Nor does Biden yet realise how unlucky he is to have won. But that will soon change as Biden’s presidency goes from crisis to crisis in all areas from monetary to fiscal to social and political. Very little will go right during his presidency.
The next four years could easily be four years of hell for Biden, for the US, and thus for the world. That is if Biden stays the course for the whole four years.
TRUMP OBLIGED AS PREDICTED
When Trump won the election in November 2016, I wrote an article dated Nov 18, 2016, called “Trump Will Grow US Debt Exponentially”
The article also contained the following graph. In the article I predicted that US debt would double by 2025 to $40 trillion and that it would be $28 trillion in January 2021 at the end of the four years.
Click to enlarge
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Well, surprise, surprise, the debt is today $27.77 trillion, which can easily be rounded up to $28t. I am certainly no forecasting genius, nor was the forecast just luck. No, it was applying the best method that we have all been given but that few apply or understand. This method is called HISTORY.
DEBT UP 31X & TAX REVENUE UP 6X
US debt had on average doubled every 8 years since Reagan took over in 1981. So as Trump became president in January 2017, he inherited a debt of $20t. So then I forecast that 8 years later the debt would be $40t. The $28t forecast for January 2021, is just the mathematical point in-between $20t and $40t.
Even worse than the debt explosion is the the lack of tax revenue to finance the escalating and chronic budget deficits. As the graph above shows, debt has grown 31x since 1981 whilst tax revenues have only grown 6x.
The US deficit is currently $3.3t which is virtually equal to total tax revenue of $3.4t. This means that 50% of annual government spending needs to be borrowed.
BANANA REPUBLIC
The US economy now clearly fits the definition of a Banana republic. A brief description is:
“In political science, the term banana republic describes a politically unstable country with an economy dependent upon the exportation of a limited-resource product, such as bananas or minerals.”
In the case of the US, the product they export is of course dollars printed out of thin air – a wonderful export item since supply is unlimited…
Further description is:
“Typically, a banana republic has a society of extremely stratified social classes, usually a large impoverished working class and a ruling class plutocracy, composed of the business, political, and military elites of that society.”
Like all Banana Republics, the US economy and social structure is now on the way to perdition with virtually no chance for Biden & Co. to reverse the inevitable course of events.
HISTORY – HISTORY
So back to history – History is what has formed us and history doesn’t just rhyme as Mark Twain said but it often repeats itself. The debt explosion is another good example.
If more people studied and understood history, they would not just recognise the utmost importance of what lies behind us but also that history will teach us about what lies in front of us.
But very few scholars and no journalists study history. Instead we are now in an era when both the media and universities worldwide want to erase history and rewrite the history books. This shows us the total lack of understanding of the utmost importance of history in the evolution of the world.
But this is part of the total decadence and denial that we see at the end of major eras or cycles. The current cycle, whether it is just a 300 year cycle or a 2,000 year old cycle is now coming to an end. These changes clearly don’t happen overnight but the first phase of the fall can be dramatic. And that phase is likely to be starting very soon.
BIDEN ONLY HAS ONE TRICK UP HIS SLEEVE
So what will Biden and his masters do? Well, Biden has already called for $ trillions of further support. He also said: “If we don’t act now, things are going to get much worse and harder to get out of a hole later.”
We always knew that Biden really only had one trick up his sleeve – TO PRINT MORE than any president has done in history. To beat Trump is not hard, he only printed $8t in 4 years!
Let’s just remind ourselves that it took 200 years (1808-2008) to increase the US debt from $65 million to $10 trillion. When Obama took over in Jan 2009 he inherited a $8t debt. Eight years later he handed over a $20t batten to Trump. In 8 years Obama printed and borrowed more money than what the previous presidents had achieved in the course of 200 years!
So will Biden print more than $10t? Definitely! Will he do it in 4 years? Most probably!
As I forecasted in my article in 2016, the debt will be at least $40t in Jan 2025, a $12t increase from today. But no one should believe that Biden will stop at $40t. The US economy is already leaking like a sieve. And the problems have just started.
The problems in the currently semi-paralysed US economy will escalate at a rapid rate and the Biden team will attempt to plug every hole at all levels from a minimum wage to saving major corporations.
PROBLEMS IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND NOT CV-19 STARTED THE CRISIS
Still, we mustn’t forget what started the latest phase of problems in the US economy. It wasn’t Covid back in February 2020. No, that was a mere catalyst. The underlying disaster was a lot deeper. The real problem started back in Aug-Sep 2019. This is when the problems in the financial system became acute and both the ECB and Fed started flooding the system with money. But not real money, just worthless paper money created with the push of a button.
Between the Fed and the ECB roughly $8t of “fake” money has been created digitally since September of 2019. It must obviously be called fake since nobody had to perform any work or produce any goods or services against this money. It is really scandalous to call it money since it is no different from the Monopoly game money.
WHEN THE MUSIC STOPS…….
The printed $8 trillion at $15 per hour (Biden’s new minimum wage) equals 60 million man hours. But in the modern MMT (Money Market Theory) paradigm, you don’t need to work for the money. Whatever the world needs, central banks and governments can just create out of nothing. That is until the music stops. And Biden or Harris are the likely conductors who will preside over the music stopping and the whole edifice collapsing.
The wise will obviously find a chair now because when the music stops there will be no chairs and all hell will break loose. By that time debt will not just be in the $trillions or $100s of trillions. No, the printing will have reached $ and EUR quadrillions as not only most collapsing debt will need to be bought by central banks but also derivatives which probably amount to $2 quadrillion or more.
In addition, medical care, social security and unfunded pensions, will probably exceed $1 quadrillion globally, and add to the demise of the financial system. Could I be wrong? Maybe. Someone gave me once a T-shirt with the inscription:
“I AM NOT ALWAYS RIGHT – But I am never wrong”!
The gift must have been a subtle hint – Hmmm.
Still, in my humble view I don’t believe that any orderly reset will change the inevitable course of events. So as far as I am concerned, it is not IF but WHEN. A professional life of over half a century has taught me that even the most evident events can take longer to develop than you think. But as I see risk at an extreme, now is the time to prepare.
MARKETS
So to finish, let’s have a quick look at where I see markets. I know forecasting is a mug’s game and I am not really interested in how markets move in the short term, this is more from an observational point of view. In the next few years it is all about economic survival and wealth preservation rather than worrying about where the Dow or the Dax is going next.
STOCKS
During 2020, I wrote and spoke about a potential Meltup in markets before a crash. The latest article was called “LIFTOFF & COLLAPSE” published in October of 2020. Well, the liftoff is happening and the Dow is up almost 5,000 points since then and the Dax 2,500 points higher.
The meltup could go a lot higher like exuberant markets often do before they collapse. But due to the extreme overvaluation based on many criteria, the market could turn at any point. So whether we see a top in the next few weeks or months is irrelevant. The risk is to the downside. When markets crash it will be long and violent. A 90%+ fall in real terms is likely over 2-5 years.
Therefore it is much more important to safeguard the position now rather than to go for the final 10-25%. Once the market starts falling, it will be virtually impossible to get out for most investors.
GOLD
Da Boyz were at it again on Friday the 8th at 9.00am European time. Gold was $1,905 at the time and plunged $30 in one move.
According to our sources, a sell order for 1.4 million ounces (43 tonnes) went through Comex with a value of $2.7 billion. This was most clearly one of the bullion banks acting with the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) in Basel.
No sane trader would ever dump 1.4 million oz of gold in one go in an illiquid market. If he did, he would be fired on the spot. So this was clear manipulation. The big short position of the bullion banks clearly necessitated a lower gold price.
This is what the chart looks like at that time:
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Some invisible hand seems to have been at work.
When the current correction finishes, which shouldn’t take too long, gold will start the journey to much, much higher levels. Next week I will discuss why Gresham’s law will support gold as it moves on into the $2,000s.
But although it is always interesting to talk about the price of gold, it is really quite meaningless.
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Because we must remember that physical gold is held for wealth preservation purposes only. To measure its value in increasingly worthless fiat money serves very little purpose.
The state of the world necessitates holding gold as life insurance. Whether gold reaches $2,000, $20,000 or $200 trillion has nothing to do with the value of gold but all to do with a bankrupt financial system and worthless fiat currencies…This will link you directly to more fantastic articles from Egon von Greyerz CLICK HERE.
Something I’ve noticed here in the sewer that was once England (and will be again) is that, in a time when millions are losing their jobs, or very soon will be, the housing market is going UP!
How can this be? What sane person would take on a mortgage, or increase existing liabilities, at a time like this?
There’s a hidden hand somewhere, but real people I know personally have moved and are moving, making it difficult to understand what’s behind it all.
When you think about it, it doesn’t make a lot of sense developing a vaccine to keep us alive?
The folks responsible for this mess would very much prefer us to all drop dead.
My God help all those who believe in him and his Son.
Amen
@Barney. I agree 100%. The housing market was another reason for us to have high level immigration. With the native population falling there would have been less demand for housing and an over supply. Therefore prices would have fallen. That would mean there would have been less demand for mortgages. Less debt? They were never going to let that happen.
A falling population would also have made us more food independent. But that’s another story.
Barney, what may not be clear with the real estate market is that for investors who foresee inflation going up considerably in the near future (something that is practically a mathematical certainty), while the value of the fiat currency constantly loses value, getting loans at very low interest rates now (due to the so-called monetary easing policies in place) is particularly advantageous. When inflation kicks in and rates go up, any loan with a fixed low rate will be great to have, if you have also offset the dropping value of the fiat currency you pay the loan with, with prior investments in inflation hedges like gold and silver, for example…
In that case, your gold and silver will outperform practically all other assets in an inflationary scenario and you can convert those investments to currency only when needed to pay off the loan instalments (or when the gold and silver are coming near a top – all asset classes oscilate between boom and bust cylces). In a situation like this, you could possibly acquire full ownership of the home for a very small fraction of what it would cost you to purchase it outright today.
I personally would only suggest for anyone thinking of doing this to do so if they had the ability to pay the loan off immediately, at any given time. This, because the state could pull off some trickery along the way to change banking or other rules, to the disadvantage of the public, using the excuse of having to take from the public to save the system, for example.
This covid nonsense is cover for the financial collapse
its happening now dad !
Christopher J. Tassava
For the United States, World War II and the Great Depression constituted the most important economic event of the twentieth century. The war’s effects were varied and far-reaching. The war decisively ended the depression itself. The federal government emerged from the war as a potent economic actor, able to regulate economic activity and to partially control the economy through spending and consumption. American industry was revitalized by the war, and many sectors…
Jerry:Would seem to be an appropriate time for another big war so America and other Western nations could use it as an excuse to exercise the great financial reset under the guise of war.It worked before maybe as soon as March we could see both the start of a war errupting between major powers and a form of financial reset taking place.I do see China becoming a global player and the USA gradually melting away in terms of it’s current status as global watchdog and both China – Russia taken over within the next 4 years in leading the world towards a New Global Economic Order.
Barney,
Think to what Klaus Schwab said of the World Economic Forum: “You will own nothing and you will be happy. ”
You’re going to see house markets continue to rise. They are creating the super wealthy class (Jews/bankers) and everyone else. And the super wealthy class will be the landlords and factory owners, just like in the past. But unlike the past there will be no political party created to fight them and their unscrupulous ways.
Both China and Russia taken over by the current Western technocrats and merging with them to rule from the East.Western hedgemony is and will be forever over.Thats why Jerusalem and Istanbul are chosen centres of the new Eastern Dominated Empire.
After Nixon temporarily (50 years!) suspended the conversion of dollars into gold in August of 1971, the Satanist Jew Kissinger went to the Saudi criminals and told them that, if the Saudis would only sell oil for dollars, the US would protect the Saudi criminals. In about 1974 the Comex (Crimex) started the futures market. The main purpose of the Comex was to suppress and manipulate the price of gold using PAPER contracts. This has worked for 50 years…….but, the “jig” is about up. With the UNCONSTITUTIONAL and criminal Jew Federal Reserve cranking out TRILLIONS of Jew Bucks, it is clear that the dollar is dying. After all, the dollar is just a piece of paper with ink. The dollar is being abandoned. What would you prefer……a pile of paper dollars with a face value of $2000, or a one oz US gold eagle??? The sad part is that the criminal Jew Satanists who rule America will start another war to prop up the Jew Dollar. But, this time, the countries that the US Satanists want to fight have the capabilities to totally destroy America.
Everything in this essay is true, but what happens next to the price of gold is unknown. King World News, Kitco, and other gold bulls are always bullish, they think and say that the price of gold is going to explode upwards. Sometimes gold does go up and sometimes it goes down, and the general trend in the unfolding fractal wave is up – and that fundamental, expanding fiat money supply is the root cause of gold marching to new highs.
But gold and silver and all other commodities do not follow a smooth curve, the follow a very jagged broken curve, a fractal pattern. Back in the late 1980’s I traded gold and wrote a computer program to describe this pattern based on the Elliott Wave Principle.
If you bet that gold is going up you will be right in the long term. In the short term you will be surprised as gold can go way the hell down in the short term while it goes way the hell up in the long term. Gold was officially pegged at $22 and 35 then it went way the hell up to 850 then way the hell down to the 300-400 range. See historical chart.
https://goldprice.org/gold-price-chart.html click on ALL
If hyperinflation happens like Weimer Germany, gold could skyrocket, if a deflationary collapse happens like 1929 gold could crash. If you want to track gold’s fractal pattern then subscribe to the Elliott Wave Theorist by Prechter.
What happens next is a big question, some argue inflation, others say deflation then inflation. Mike Maloney is a good source for this argument.
“Gold is money, everything else is credit” J.P. Morgan
“Money is by nature gold and silver” Karl Marx
Get ready for the most radical anti-white USSA administration yet. Now that the rigged elections are over & the two Senate seats in Georgia were fixed, so a Communist Jew & Ape would win; the Communist Party is prepared to implement their agenda. They desire a few things, such as ‘hate speech’ legislation, like they have in Europe/Canada. Along with that, there will be a slave reparation tax on whites & millions of more Afro-Asian-Latino invaders will arrive. ‘Domestic terrorism’ will be hyped up, as ‘Islamic terrorism’ is gradually phased out & replaced with ‘white nationalist’ terrorists. Of course, there will be other anti-white regulations too.
According to some financial and trading experts what is taking place with the exponential fiat- money creation is the biggest wealth transfer in human history, with the concentration of wealth and power into fewer and fewer hands. The privately owned central banks controlled by the international banking cartel will become the buyers and lenders of last resort. History shows that in the US as in the EU the process of casting away bank lending and investment restrictions over the past 40 years, not only led to the growth of the gigantic debt bubble but paved the way for the banking cartel to own and control every nation where they had established one of their central bank systems.
If people are interested in history then there is one book which puts everything in perspective regarding the banking cartel – The New Confessions of an Economic Hit Man by John Perkins published in 2016, – first published as Confessions of and Economic Hit Man in 2004. Perkins was essentially an agent of the IMF and the World Bank, the two main international arms of the cartel. He was groomed by a US intelligence agency and hired by a foreign development firm called Main. His job was to induce and to coerce leaders and influential people in third-world nations to have their governments borrow large sums of money for development projects in their nations. The nations never saw the money as it would go to US engineering and resource-development firms with very little of the profits from any venture going back into their nations. When his overtures for the loans were rebuffed then the jackals would be sent in to do the wet work (often CIA operatives or some US black ops group) which work included assassinations and coups. What invariably occurred with the loans was that the borrowing nation became indebted to the cartel and subject its control. Perkin’s work was in the 70’s and the 80’s right when banking interests rates were (coincidentally) astronomically high, no doubt for debt rigging purposes in foreign lending and for baby boomers in our nations trying to buy their first homes, as well as for our governments when the cartel made deficit financing universal.
In relation to the growing debt bubble, for the past 40 years it has been the same banking cartel controlling our finances, our governments, our economy and the media which is totally responsible for deliberately debt rigging our nations and that debt should be laid solely at their door. They have done this with the purpose of taking complete control of our Western nations and all major assets to evoke their totalitarian world order, which they are currently imposing on us under their carefully-planned Covid, global warming, debt-rigging and Reset scams.
I have noticed the peculiar action in the gold market myself. I will go to bed at 11:00pm EST and gold might be up 15.00/oz. If I get up at 8:00am EST the next morning and check the markets, gold will be down $20.00. When I check the price action, almost invariably, prices would have plunged abruptly at about 1:00am EST on the Globex. This happens with startling regularity – so much so that one could even trade this move and probably make some easy money.
I always ask myself the same question. Who the heck would want to dump a large amount of gold on the Globex at that particular time? It has to be one or more of the bullion banks acting on behalf of ‘somebody’. It is so blatantly obvious but many will still call this a ‘conspiracy theory’. But, really, what trading house, in its right mind would do something so ridiculous? Wouldn’t it make more sense, if you wanted to sell a large number of contracts, to wait and do it gradually during normal trading hours when the gold market is much more liquid? Of course it would!
Something stinks here and I firmly believe Central Banks are desperate to keep gold under $2000. They are frightened of the psychological impact that would have on people since a sustained rise over that critical level would ignite more buying and an equivalent loss of faith in the USD.
And don’t forget that oil supply will be -50% in 2025!
These gold guys are all the same, I’ve been telling people for years las vegas (the stock market) has nothing to do with the real economy, period.
And debt is as “real” as the bullcrap federal reserve notes printed from thin air, it is unreal until they say it is…the market will go up until they say it wont…period.