COVID-19 in Proportion?

In Proportion2 – April 8, 2020

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In the above chart BLUE shows the number of deaths from Flu/Pneumonia in 2019, ORANGE shows Flu/Pneumonia deaths this year (it takes a few weeks before data is published). RED are the deaths in the UK reported “with” COVID-19 (“with” not necessarily “because of”).

At this scale, the deaths “with” COVID-19 look relatively few compared to the deaths from all causes and compared to the number of deaths that usually take place in NHS hospitals.

As of 27th March, the total number of deaths so far this year is significantly less than for the equivalent period in 2018 (150,057 vs 164,625).

In the following chart, Chart 2, the figures for deaths from any cause are removed so we can “zoom in” and better see COVID-19 in relation to 2019 Flu/Pneumonia deaths.

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In Chart 3, the figures are shown as weekly totals, rather than cumulative totals.

Since week ending 2020-04-13 there has been dramatic fall in Non-COVID-19 deaths. Why?

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In the following chart, downloaded from Euromomo on 2020-04-04 you can see overall mortality in a European context up until last week – that is deaths from any cause, including COVID-19. Overall deaths in Europe are currently beyond the range they define as normal; this can be seen as the green line Delay-adjusted number of deaths rises above the dotted grey line representing four standard deviations beyond the mean or Substantial increase. Notice, however, that Europe remains in a much better position now than it was in the previous three winters: 2017-01, 2018-09 and 2019-05 (the fifth week of last year). This raises the question: why are we taking such unprecedented measures with quarantines and shutdowns when this was not necessary in those years?

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Is the cure worse than the disease?

To deal with the threat of COVID-19 the UK Government has ordered unprecedented shut-downs and quarantines, and many support this in the spirit of “better safe than sorry”. However, this overlooks the fact that shutdowns and quarantines also kill. The economic, social and health costs will almost certainly include:

  • Earlier deaths for cancer sufferers due to diagnosis and treatment delays
  • Business failures leading to more business failures
  • Job losses leading to poor health, social problems and suicides
  • Fewer taxpayers available to fund an increasing need for social benefits
  • Reduced funding for the NHS and the rest of the public sector
  • Lost educational opportunities and disruption to exams and graduations
  • Inflation as Government “prints” and “borrows” more, while tax revenues fall
  • Pension values reduced by stock-market crashes
  • Reduced life expectancy for people moving deeper into poverty

Or in the words of a former UK Supreme Court Judge:

“The real question is, is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable, and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all?”

Former Supreme Court Judge , Lord John Sumption, discussing the UK response to COVID-19, BBC interview 2019-03-30 [1]

 Notes on the data



6 responses to “COVID-19 in Proportion?”

  1. Majority of covid deaths are not covid deaths

  2. Baxter: Dead right, pun intended. The purpose of Covid is to degrade everything, apart from the control systems. They are devaluing humanity & this means less food, fewer jobs, less or no free movement, less healthcare, and less education. Some parts of the world have economies based on tourism. How hard will air travel be after Covid scam? If they bring in just a fraction of the suggested controls mentioned in the fake news, very few sheeple will be flying and this bring into question just how many planes and routes will be reopened. A lot of people are going to starve to death, way more than officially die from covid… but we know that the majority of covid deaths are fake, they died of the usual causes of death and some were MURDERED by doctors not resuscitating patients who could live for years.

  3. Somewhere in the distance
    I hear the bells ring
    Darkness settles on the town
    As the children start to sing
    And the lady cross the street
    She shuts out the night
    There’s a cast of thousands waiting
    As she turns out the light.

  4. Baxter: It seems to be a partial culling of the masses to fit in with the proposed population reduction as inscribed on the Georgia Guide Stones,USA.

  5. Ironic how the figures for Flu/Pneumonia are down by a 1/3rd at 11,000 or so less this year……….Almost the SAME amount of deaths from the HOAX. Take away the HOAX and deaths are occurring as NORMAL this year! It is a POWER GRAB and nothing else

  6. Humm.. I have reamrked lately, that there’s no more death due to, heart attack, cancer, car accidents, Drugs OD, suicide, reported ?? All those died from Corona Virus ??
    Trust me ?? Would I lie to you ?? I am a “Respected” media analyst I wouldn’t lie to you ??