Martin Armstrong — Armstrong Economics March 29, 2020
It is with deep regret that the German Treasury Secretary of the federal state of Hesse, Thomas Schäfer, killed himself on March 28th, 2020. He oversaw Hesse‘s biggest city, Frankfurt, where we would hold our conferences and it remains the European capital for international banks. I know he was deeply concerned that this Coronavirus-Crisis was being used to destroy the economy. Thomas understood what was taking place and also understood he would not be able to deal with the absurd expectations of the general public about financial relief that was being pushed over a crisis that did not appear to warrant such a reaction.
Thomas was one of the good guys. My deepest condolences to his family. I understand his pessimism for what is to come post-Coronavirus. It is extremely difficult to watch something unfold and be unable to do anything to stop the momentum. Suicide becomes the option when it is just easier to leave than it is to stay.
German government advisors: Recession in 1H 2020 is unavoidable
Haresh Menghani – FX Street March 30, 2020
The German council of economic advisors offered their take on the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak and warned of the deepest recession since 2009.
- The virus outbreak has put an end to the incipient economic recovery.
- Recession in 1H 2020 is unavoidable.
- The German economy will shrink significantly this year.
- The baseline scenario is the economy to shrink by 2.8% this year and grow by 3.7% in 2021.
- The baseline scenario is for the economic situation to normalise over the summer.
- The second scenario involves a V-shaped trajectory with widespread production halts.
- That will see the economy shrink by 5.4% this year and grow by 4.9% in 2021.
- The third scenario involves a U-shaped trajectory where recovery begins next year.
- That will see the economy shrink by 4.5% this year and grow by 1.0% in 2021