Israel Shamir – The Unz Review March 2, 2020
The Russians feel fighting Turkey is below their dignity, and prefer to keep the fighting in Idlib as a proxy war. The dignity point is important: traditionally, the Russians go to war only with great powers. Smaller military encounters are a matter for a local commander. Even cruel Winter Campaign 1940 against Finland had been conceived as a decision of Leningrad District; the battles with the Japanese in 1936 and 1939 were carried by the Far East Military District, not by Soviet Russia. Imperial Turkey was a worthy adversary for Russia, and the two empires crossed their sables twelve times, if not more. But not now.
At the previous crisis, in 2015, after Turkey downed the Russian Su-24, Russians stopped buying Turkish tomatoes and Russian tourists were told to avoid Turkish resorts; visas were withdrawn and media went ballistic. That was enough to make Turks regret their hasty decisions, for Turkey needs Russia as the market for its fruits and vegetables, supplier of tourists and the working place for its building companies. During the West-instigated attempted coup against Erdogan, Russia supported the embattled Turkish ruler; afterwards, the Russian – Turkish relations greatly improved. Turkey had bought Russian S-400 missile defence system, entered Astana agreement with Russia and Iran, had built the hub for Russian gas and had Russia guarding its back in the confrontation with Kurds.
Idlib undid much of goodwill between the twain, but Russia still does not want to be seen as fighting Turkey. In Russian book, the Turks fight the Syrian government, while Russia stands out and above the dogfight. Russians carefully observe the notions of Sochi agreement. Before landing the mighty strike that killed dozens (if not hundreds) of Turkish soldiers, the Russians checked with Turkish HQ whether there are any Turks in the area to be assaulted; only after the HQ (erroneously) replied there aren’t any, the area had been bombed with devastating efficiency. “They died because they joined the rebel forces” – the Russians answered the Turkish complaint.
Now Bashar al-Assad wants to recover Idlib, the last province that does not accept the rule of Damascus. The Syrians feel the civil war lasted too long, and it should be finished-off. The Russians agree with them. In Sochi, the Russians and the Turks agreed to give Idlib some time-out to sort out things. During this time-out, Turkey was supposed to discipline the rebels, but it failed to do so. The rebels kept fighting and shelling the Syrian government and Russian forces. They were a thorn in the flesh for Syrians, Shias and Russians alike.
The Turks had a problem: what to do with jihadists of Idlib? They were understandably hesitant to accept them on their own land, and would prefer them to stay where they are. It would be acceptable if they were restrained, but they could not, and unwilling to be restrained. This problem has no easy solution. The Russians and Syrians probably would agree for another time-out, if two main roads M4 and M5 were secured under Damascus forces. This is the most probable compromise to be achieved by Erdogan and Putin when they meet.
Putin didn’t want to meet with Erdogan at all. He felt these meetings turn the proxy Syrian conflict into direct Russian-Turkish confrontation, and that (see above) is below Russian dignity. However, Erdogan feels that dealing with Assad is below his dignity. Damascus was a vilayet, a centre of Syrian province in the Ottoman Empire; and the Sultan (as people call Erdogan half-jokingly) can’t negotiate with the pasha of a vilayet. Rising level of violence in Idlib had forced Putin to agree for a meeting.
Putin and Erdogan need each other. There is no substitute for Erdogan. All other prominent Turkish statesmen who could possibly take his place would be worse for Russia. All of them are pro-NATO, pro-US or pro-EU men. Some of them could make peace in Syria, but at high price on other important for Russia issues. Erdogan needs Putin, too. Putin is the only statesman of high calibre that is likely to support him against all odds. Putin can keep Turkish economy from going under. The EU and US could help Turkish economy, too; but they would send Erdogan to jail.
Sanity and logic say that Putin and Erdogan must find modus vivendi. Erdogan could concentrate on the most important issue for Turkey in Syria: prevention of independent Kurdistan rising on Turkish border. Putin could give some ground in Idlib, leaving a narrow strip of land in Turkish hands, as long as highways go to Assad. However, Putin and Erdogan do not act in vacuum, and sanity and logic could be silenced by other urges. Shia forces in Syria and Damascus government want their victory. Rebels are not a yielding lot, too.
I have a warm spot for the Turkish ruler. He is not universally popular; many Turks hate him; Turkish economy is in a bad shape; by going to Libya he overextended his resources. Still he is a great man. If he would come to his senses and make peace with his neighbour Bashar al-Assad, his problems would be solved. It would be a difficult decision, bearing in mind many years of strife and bad blood; but great rulers are those who make hard decisions.
Such a man was Marshal Mannerheim who embraced Josef Stalin in 1944. He survived, and Finland survived and flourished thanks to this decision. Putin had tried to make peace with Ukrainian presidents; he befriended Erdogan. Trump had met with Kim, tried to make peace with Taliban. This is a sign of true greatness.
Erdogan probably could reach a passable agreement with Putin. But the real solution is found on the way to Damascus; friendship with Assad is the best asset Erdogan can achieve. Befriend your neighbours, and fear none. Return refugees home, and your citizens will love you again. Danger of Syrian Kurdistan will be removed. Let Assad bother with rehabilitation of Islamist warriors. Turkey will be loved by its Arab neighbours, as it was before the unhappy Arab Spring.
However, the wounds caused by radicalisation of Muslim youth in 1980s won’t heal soon. Intelligence services learned of huge potential of energy, activism, readiness for sacrifice in this numerous population group and decided to tap it for their purposes. They used it against Russia in Afghanistan in 1980s and in Chechnya in 1990s; against the Arab world for last twenty years. It is a problem, for these young men are naïve idealists who were misdirected to do devil’s work, and this problem has no easy solution.
There is nothing to panic about, said Trump about the Corona, and he is right. Corona is a mental virus of fear, not much else. We have a sterling proof: the Diamond Princess liner had been marooned in the ideal, for virus, circumstances of single ventilation system. Many people had got the decease, but only two persons, aged over 80, had died. No children became sick. Apparently it could be dangerous only for people over 60. There was no reason for panic at all.
I am proud of being a virus denier, and it feels good to have President Trump on our, deniers, side. We know it is less dangerous than usual flu, even if more contagious. Ignore, and everything will be fine.
The panic occurred for two reasons: incredible quarantine measures undertaken by the Chinese, and media going into full volume fear-spreading. The first reason remains somewhat obscure. We do not know why the Chinese did it. There are many possible explanations, including some domestic reasoning. Perhaps some important people in Chinese leadership wanted (or still want) to bring the obedient Chinese to the state of rebellion, as it happened in Soviet Russia in Gorbachev’s days. Or it is an exercise in civil defence. Or the virus is ethnic-specific, or whatever. Anyway outside of its home province of Hubei, the virus didn’t make inroads.
There are very few non-Chinese victims of the disease, and its spread in Iran, the US enemy of choice, makes us think of it being a designed bio-weapon, despite its modest severity.
Media had made too much out of it; that can be explained by Chinese quarantine measures, or by sensationalism inherent in media. Alternatively, it could be substitute for World War Three, an event to trigger force majeure clause of so many undeliverable contracts. It could be a tool to limit citizens’ freedoms and liberties by usual suspects, like they did after 9/11. Sooner or later, we shall know the reasons. Whatever it was, it is not mortal danger of the virus.
A lot of surprises in Dem primaries! Sanders’ victory in first three primaries, a very rare occurrence. And then victory of Biden in SC primaries. Afro-Americans are an obedient folk despite their reputation of rebelliousness. They voted for Biden, the Senile Thief of Ukraine, as their bosses told them to. That is why Clinton et al like them so much! Real rebels, like MLK or wonderful Cynthia McKinney are rare. The vast majority still does what they are told.
But the biggest surprise is Bernie Sanders’ decision to give a miss to AIPAC gathering. It is a sign of wisdom for politician. It means he knows the secret that many people know but nobody utters. American people are sick and tired of what they see as Jewish predominance, and in particular of its obvious Israeli angle. They won’t admit it even on the rack, but you have to see how their eyes flash when they hear that. Donald Trump captured the American hearts when he said to AIPAC, “You’re not going to support me because I don’t want your money.” They didn’t understand what he meant exactly, but they thought it is a noble sentiment. Now Sanders had made the next step, refusing to come to AIPAC at all.
The received wisdom is that you have to come to AIPAC hat in hand if you want to succeed in US politics. Bernie is right: people are tired of ordinary politicians. They want something different. The establishment calls that ‘populism’. By denying AIPAC, Bernie proclaimed his populist agenda. Even if he fails, he made a huge step on the way to release Americans from the Jewish bondage.
There is some irony that the Republican populist, often accused of antisemitism President Donald Trump gave to Israel everything they would like to have; and that the Dem populist Senator Bernie Sanders, a Jewish man from Brooklyn NY, will rise the banner of rebellion against Israeli occupation. Things still can change but it is an important lesson for all of us. People of Jewish origin are as unpredictable as the rest of us.
Silly racists believe that Jews are some bio-robots, always fitting the Jewish agenda. The reality is different. Free will is the Divine gift to Adam, and we all possess it, even if so many give it up for the reasons of convenience. Jews are not exceptional from this angle. Being Jewish is also a question of choice nowadays, like being a Native American for Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Millions of Americans who identify themselves as Jews aren’t considered ‘Jews’ by Orthodox Rabbis; they know it. If they still retain some Jewishness it is because they think it has positive value. The moment they will find out it is not so, the numbers of American Jews will shrink rapidly. Only Orthodox Jews will remain ‘Jews’, a small not-too-prosperous Amish-like minority.
If and when this melting of American Jewish identity will occur, the decision of Senator Sanders to skip AIPAC pow wow will be seen as a turning point in the right direction.
Source
Dear Mr. Shamir;
Re: Syria, Turkey, Russia; Assad, Erdogan, Putin.
1. Amazing how a Christian Israelite is still an Israelite: all these palaver and not one single word about Assad and Putin bombing the millions of civilians cornered in Idlib under the mischievous promises by Assad and Putin to them that this would be a safe haven for them to bring their families, children, wives and old folk alike. As far as Pax Russica goes, I will take the Sultan’s peace any day! Not one single word about the humanity of these millions of civilians been daily bombed, burned, crushed by Russian high flying cowards and Syrian low flying psychopaths!
2. Neither Putin nor your mother Russia are as “solid and strong” as you make it out: although I don’t believe that neither side is crazy enough to cross swords because of Syria, any major distraction by Russia will water the mouth of many of her traditional enemies and the conclusion would be much worse for Russia than for Turkey.
3. IMHO, when he realised the Russian duplicity, Erdogan way outsmarted Putin: he destroyed the Russian image in Turkey AND in majority of Syria as well as in the Sunni world (90 % of Muslim World of 1,6 billion save sold-out Arab leadership) that Russia was a honest broker in Syria. I remember very well when Putin promised that he would be the defender of the Muslims a few years back… he is now seen as the main murderer of Syrian Muslims and destroyer of a uniquely historical and priceless Muslim land and civilisation: this won’t be forgotten in a hurry!
4. When the hostilities end in Syria and most of the refugees return back to their homes from within and without the country, they will forever remember -or constantly reminded- that their suffering WAS mostly due to the Russian support to the vile regime of Assad and without Russia, the regime would fall quickly. Their country would not be so destroyed, their family members killed, homes and cities turned to rubble and Syria weakened in her mission to balance the Zionist power without Russia’s treacherous intervention.
The revenge will first come to hit the retched Russian forces stationed in their bases in Syria… what might happen in Russia herself in a few years or decades to come is anybody’s guess.
I remind you that one of the 99 attributes of God according to the Qur’an is al Muntaqim: the Avenger… and it is well known that revenge is consumed when cold!
Your’s sir, truly.
Much as I love and respect Israel Shamir, I also feel very sure that Jon Bjerkness is right – and I recommend his recent interview with Adam Green at Bitchute. The lunatic Jews intend to kill us – and perhaps in the not too distanct future.
I wish Shamir’s proclamation that, “free will is the divine gift to Adam:” had appeared sooner as I would have realized that I’m reading a parody. However, it’s still kind of cute that Turkey and Russia “crossed their sables twelve times.”
Tricky Jew.
Sanders is loyal to global Jews. But they are not homogenous group. George Soros is the enemy of Bibi Netanyahu.
Jews fight with each other. Bolshevik Jews put many Jews in prisons, in GULAG. They are not loyal to other Jews=political enemies. This is what we know from history.
Bernie Sanders is not a Messiah.
Vladimir Putin reduced Russia to the level of opportunistic mercenaries: all of Russia and her military infrastructure is now a giant Wagner & Co. set up. Countries DO support their allies or countries they traditionally cooperate with when these come under terrorist attack and even small scale internal insurrection but when 2/3 of a country is against their government and hundreds of thousands take arms against it, this becomes a revolution. Now, Russia is supporting a dictator profoundly hated by most of his people. The story of “foreign mujahideen and Islamic terrorist” narrative do not stand up anymore. Why is Russia supporting and prodding Assad regime against the will of people of Syria? Because of a couple of poky little bases which she will not be able to keep as sooner or later the people of Syria will prevail and the mercenaries will run away as they always do. There is no difference between Putin’s Russia today and those retired British officers selling themselves to African tinpot dictators.
As for their future relation with Turkey, IMO, this crisis will recede, trade, tourism and commerce will continue but like the Soviets in 1945 Russia today reminded Turks that he tiger doesn’t change its spots…
P.S. to Mr. S: The Turks under the Ottomans and the Russians under the tsars had sixteen (16) major wars small skirmishes and local confrontations not withstanding.
Shamir is into more Zionist propaganda.
“Now Bashar al-Assad wants to recover Idlib, the last province that does not accept the rule of Damascus. The Syrians feel the civil war lasted too long, and it should be finished-off. The Russians agree with them. In Sochi, the Russians and the Turks agreed to give Idlib some time-out to sort out things.”
Where is the evidence that the people of Idlib do not accept the rule of Damascus? Many rebel mercs have been concentrated into the region with the successive retreats from the SAA-liberated areas in Syria. These rebel groups including ISIS mercs do not represent the people of Syria and that is proven by the response to the people in every liberated area, including the areas now being liberated by the SAA forces under Assad in the Idlib zone.
The Russians do not want to fight the Turks but have warned the Turks to leave. Idlib remains part of Syria. It is neither a vassal sate of Turkey or of Israel, and if the Turks do not leave they likely will be defeated. Yes, Mr. Shamir the Syrian people are fed up with the war, but they want their nation back together again, and more and more people in the world are increasingly becoming fed up with three Rothschild nations in particular, the US, Britain and Israel for their unjust destabilization & regime-change operations and endless wars for plunder and turf.
There is really not much Erdogan can do except make peace with Syria. Apparently some of the Erdogan’s advisors have advised him to move the remnant of ISIS and other rebel forces in Idlib to Libya. If true this is yet more bad news for Libyans who have not seen a good day after golden days under Ghadafi.
As Mr. S. notes) Imperial Turkey was a worthy adversary for Russia, and the two empires crossed their SABLES twelve times, if not more. But not now. ”
Did they do that to get different colors? Jesting. He meant sabres.
To Yusef Sami TURKER. I’m aware. And we all know that Shamir meant “sabres” and not “sables”. However, predictive text or voice-to-text software is no excuse for a lack of proofreading.
AIPAC ???
This is it ?https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESNcABXXsAAaISX?format=jpg&name=900×900
This is a response to some of the commentators that have more or less defended the FSA/ISIS terrorists and Turkey against.
There was a time when everyone wanted Assad gone, it was fashionable to say things against Assad. From the child killer Natanyahoo all the way to the now deceased Morsi of Egypt who’s new Brotherhood’ Islamic Revolution in Egypt lasted only two weeks after his remarks that Assad must go, when Sisi came to power and put him in jail! Just google and see… the entire world said Evil Assad is finished and must go. One man said he must stay and he was Iran’s Supreme Leader. He said: “We do not care what is your religion, as long as you stand against Zionists we defend you.” and he sent Martyr Qassem Suleimani on various new missions to alter the Zionist plans and prevent them to reshuffle the power in the region yet again in favor of Israel. They wanted Assad gone because unlike others he was against Israel. No sane man would defend Saudis… yet somehow they are to stay but Assad must go? Only a fool would be blind and not see how saving Assad was a mission against Zionist interests. Yes, even Russia thought Assad was finished at first because they didn’t want to loose their strategic Mediterranean sea port, they really though Assad was going down so they actually approached FSA groups to secure their interests in post Assad Syria! It was Iran and its allies like Hezbollah that saved Syria and Assad from the scourge of Zombie barbarians supported by almost everyone! ISIS spread like plague quickly taking over territory, Assad officially asked Iran for help and it was granted! Assad’s military could not fight urban asymmetric warfare, the type of battle the was needed to defeat ISIS. Syria had a classic military that was transformed by General Qasem Suleimani. In fact if you see today whenever Iranian military advisors have gone to defend the oppressed and against the Zionists interest, the people there have become powerful effective military powers. From Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hoothis in Yemen. It is clear that those who are allied with Iran and Iran helps are still standing stronger than ever, while Zionist allies have become gradually weaker and have lost in multiple fronts.
So in this light the first three years of war, it was just Iran saving Assad, for three years they gave ISIS weapons, money, medical support, strategic and tactical advice and intelligence, air-support, massive news/media support, bought their stolen oil and what not! After three years with some real achievements, Qasem Suleimani went to Russia and convinced them to enter the war only with Air-support as the Syrian army and Shiite coalition forces under Iranian leadership will take care of ISIS on the ground. And they were convinced! Russia helping with air-power helped balance the war!
The entire Zionist power was moving full-steam to take-out Assad and they failed. Just recently US signed a deal with Taliban to leave Afghanistan, surely ISIS/Daesh was much worse than Taliban! Ask Syrians, Russians, Iraqis and anyone with any sense and they will tell you who defeated ISIS as a Khilafa, and Trump can say US defeated them all he wants! Somehow US could not defeat Taliban nor could Russians before them and now they claim they defeated ISIS! Even funnier now is to think that Turkey alone can remove Assad from power! Iran’s decades of power wrestling with US in the region reached a new height when Qassem Suleimani was cowardly assassinated on the way for a known diplomatic mission and then Iran’s swift and accurate missile attack on AinAlAssad base that somehow weirdly left more than hundreds and rising…slightly brain-dead soldiers! Trump backing down from his promised retaliation… even assuming the crazy idea that US allowed Iran to save face by attacking an empty US airbase means that US had to comply due to a degree of Iran’s power! … and now a disliked and unwanted member of NATO wants to remove Assad all by itself!? Good luck.
One more thing: many Turks showed condolences and even lit candles for Mohsen Hojaji who was an IRGC member when Daesh released videos of torturing him and ultimately beheading him. You could see no fear in Hojaji’s face in the videos and photos. He was not the only Iranian who was beheaded by ISIS. However what makes his case special was that the real cause for him being captured was a US air-strike in support of ISIS.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohsen_Hojaji
The Wikipedia is obviously messed up, truth is he was captured because of a US air-strike, and this has not been the only US/Israel air-strike in support of ISIS.
Right now many Turkish people are against Erdogans decisions against Syria.
That first comment was ridiculous especially in light of last two and Freds.
The question would be if jews aren’t bio-robots how much autonomy do they possess within their own hierarchy and I can add non orthodox could be in it for the victimhood something that isn’t a positive thing but the exodus from identity made me laugh I could picture it.
I wouldn’t trust Sanders to look after my pet and not because he is Jew. It is because there is no way he can he deliver on anything he promises. He is riding on more of what Assad said about American politics being like Hollywood, it relies on the imagination hey Alan d, Dale. The more America rides on its imagination the deeper it’s going down, doesn’t matter who is in the Whitehouse.