Dina Esfandiary – New York Times Jan 8, 2020
After a few days of quiet, Iran carried out its promised “severe revenge” for the United States’ killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani last week.
On Wednesday morning in the Middle East, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched 22 missiles at two American-run bases in Iraq. The attack was symbolically significant but resulted in limited damage and no loss of life. It demonstrated Iran’s ability to hit American assets in the region, but was calculated to give President Trump an off-ramp from escalating tensions into an all-out war.
Thankfully, he seems ready to take it. But even if war was avoided this time, heightened tensions and sporadic attacks will be the new normal in the Middle East.
The killing of General Suleimani surprised Iran experts. While as the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ special operations unit, the Quds Force, the general was certainly a threat to the United States, no previous administration had wanted to risk the potentially high cost of taking him out. When President Trump did, it set off fury among Iran’s leaders — and much of the Iranian population. Tehran could not let the assassination of one of its most senior and popular officials go unpunished.
Still, it seems that the attack on Wednesday was intended as a warning rather than real retribution. Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi of Iraq said that Tehran had warned him that the missiles were coming; reports say he passed that information on to American and Iraqi troops, as the Iranian military probably expected. The Iranians, with their sophisticated intelligence operations in Iraq, were also likely well aware of the layout of the bases that they hit, and knew American troops would be able to take cover from the rockets. All of this suggests that the Iranians wanted to minimize casualties, even as they projected strength.
In a move that departed from their usual modus operandi of covert action and deniability, the Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for the attacks. Each wave of strikes was widely publicized — in one instance, even before the strikes were carried out. In addition, over the weekend, rumors emerged that Iran was mobilizing some of its missile forces. Moving missiles is visible and suggests that Iran intended to send a message that something was in the works, giving Washington a chance to prepare.
The Iranian leadership was not blundering. These were signals: We are “escalating” because we cannot allow a brazen assassination to go unpunished, Iran seemed to say, but we are ready to de-escalate.
Tehran knows that it cannot win an all-out war against the United States, which is why it took this gamble. By minimizing casualties, the Iranian leadership hoped to limit the American response. The officials in Tehran know, of course, that Mr. Trump has repeatedly said he wants to avoid getting bogged down in a war in the Middle East. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, added that the Iran’s strikes were in “self-defense” and “proportionate,” indicating Tehran’s desire to halt further fighting.
It seems to have worked. Speaking in Washington on Wednesday morning, Mr. Trump said that Iran was “standing down” and even suggested that he was willing to negotiate with Tehran. The lack of American casualties allows him to save face, too.
But even if the United States and Iran avoid direct confrontation this week, this isn’t the end of their hostilities.
The uptick in tensions — Iran’s attacks on Aramco oil installations in Saudi Arabia last September, the assassination of General Suleimani, and the missile strikes in Iraq — marks the start of a new phase in American-Iranian relations and Middle Eastern instability.
Iran is patient, famous for playing the long game. It has vowed to continue avenging General Suleimani’s death. Tehran’s goal of ridding the Middle East of American troops hasn’t changed, and President Hassan Rouhani made that clear, stating Iran’s “real revenge and the ultimate response by regional nations is when America is expelled from this region and its hand of aggression is cut off forever.” Americans in the Middle East are still at risk, and will be for a long time to come.
After the initial shock of the past week’s events wears off, there will be a return to a sustained pace of sporadic attacks, likely with greater intensity than before. Bases, assets and shipping in Iraq and the Persian Gulf will all be considered fair game. Cyberattacks against American computer systems and infrastructure are also likely to increase. And don’t expect a resolution soon. Despite Mr. Trump’s supposed willingness to negotiate, it’s unlikely: There is much bad blood and few channels of communication.
Meanwhile, it is once again the people of the Middle East who will be caught in the crossfire as the United States and Iran refuse to back down.
See Aangirfan 2020….
Its an absolute surity that the Jews will push America into another Gulf war which again will be totally unjustified and against international law as usual.Americans will die for greater Israel while the jews sit back and chill making a killing on arms and ammunition supplied to all involved, Saudis etc..America will focus on a massive air campaign and troops on ground supplied by Saudis and mercenaries.Israel will join in on directing Saidi forces on the ground and supporting USA in the air.This will be a nuclear war as Iran millitary infrustructure are deep underground.Iran will be levelled as will Damascus.When the dust settles US will be victorious for a short lived time.Its at this pinacle point when Russia and China will strike America without warning and mercilessly wipe it off the face of the earth forever, setting up the way towards the real NWO sans USA rip.Jerusalem declared an international city of peace under the UN ,third temple can now be built.All prophecies fulfilled.Vatican can now unite everyone under a new interfaith movement and a world leader declared.Annuitt Coeptis 666.We have arrived.This is WWIII there is no turning back.Trump the joker cryptic jew was selected to bring this to pass and he is doing a good job so far as not dissapointing the Synagogue of Satan.Americans run for the hills you have been warned.
Vespasian, I suggest instead of Aangirfan, people can check out Aanirfan…..
https://aanirfan.blogspot.com/
Because that link actually explains the Iranian stageset in its current article which does run under Aangirfan title….somewhat confusing but aanirfan rather than aangirfan has the link on Iran’s role in the kosher nostra up. For those interested in the real backstory.
Good point and the most important. The US finally knows, as if they didn’t already know it, Iran can hit any target in the Middle East and that includes Israel. Maybe this is what Trump really wanted, the world and the neocon nutters that the US could win the war, but at a big cost.
There is no doubt now that Iran’s attack was measured to not cause many deaths. However to say that this was a “sever revenge”, it was not. The Supreme Leader said it was just a slap in the face to wake US up. He defined the scope of the revenge and nothing less than total removal of the US forces from Iraq and Syria can be considered a revenge and this process has been accelerated.
One IRGC commander said: “Who should we kill to avenge Qasem Suleimani? Spiderman or Spongebob!? US does not have any one man worthy of being killed, one shoe of Suleimani worths more than Trump’s head.”
Commander Hajizade said we could have killed 500 US soldiers in the first attack and if US retaliated, in the second and third attacks we could have killed up to 5000 US soldiers, however this was not the plan. Many Iranians are not satisfied with this attack,, however Supreme Leaders words is final in such matters. I can see Israel as the only side benefiting from this getting out of hand, Iran’s leadership perhaps is seeing that the inevitable is not far and they should not act angrily just to please the many people who came to Suleimanis funeral. Head of IRGC and the new replacement for Qasem Suleimani both have literally used the word “patience”.
Still all of this does not mean no one died in the attack, US wounded and killed were moved out in 9 flights by C130 planes. Another official said yesterday that still some were under debris and Trump says no one has been killed.
I can understand thought that Trump can’t handle the news of those killed and many would pressure him for retaliation, so US government is doing its best to hide this and tries to win the propaganda war by making the attack insignificant, otherwise stepping back from promised retaliation for Trump would look really bad.
Inside America with the cowboy mentality, this attack seems not much, however the world particularly the countries of the region see it differently, for the first time after WW2 a country directly attacks a US base and claims responsibility and US backs down from escalating further.