Iran believes Trump is afraid of taking military action

Introduction – Oct 3, 2019

The U.S. may have built-up its forces in the region but it does indeed seem as if the U.S. is now trying avoid military conflict with Iran. However, we don’t believe this is because Trump himself is “afraid” of confronting Iran, as the following article suggests.
Trump is a businessman and something of a showman. He is not military man and we suspect that Trump’s reluctance to confront Iran stems from advice from his military commanders.
They see the intelligence assessments on Iran’s military capability that the public never see and they know that it is emerging as a force to be reckoned with. This is despite the fact that Iran spends forty times less on its military than Washington.

The Khordad-3 air defense system that was reportedly used to shoot down the U.S. Global Hawk. Click to enlarge

Iran is now far better equipped than either the Taliban or Iraq and U.S. military commanders know this. The recent downing of a U.S. Global Hawk drone over Iran only underlines this. Forget the disinformation being fed to the corporate media about the incident. Iran shot down one of America’s most advanced and expensive drones with one of its own locally developed missiles.
U.S. military commanders know what this says about Iran’s military ability. They also know that conflict with Iran would be potentially far worse than Iraq, or Afghanistan. It could be even worse than Vietnam with the potential for a catastrophic defeat that could reduce America’s military standing in the world.
The conflict could potentially diminish the American Empire in much the same way as the two world wars reduced Britain’s power. Only America’s decline wouldn’t happen over decades. Unlike the British Empire’s decline it wouldn’t be a sedate waning of power. It would be a cataclysmic fall.
In recent weeks we’ve seen the rag-tag Iranian-backed Houthis repeatedly humiliate the Saudis. Despite the fact that they have the world’s third biggest military budget, the Saudis are losing. The conflict is now threatening the very stability of the Saudi royal dynasty.
The lessons for America are obvious and despite arguments to attack Iran, from the pro-Israeli lobby, we suspect that his military commanders are urging that Trump approach Tehran with the utmost caution.

Iran believes Trump is afraid of taking military action

Dr Majid Rafizadeh – Arab News.com Oct 3, 2019

Some policy analysts and scholars have found it mindboggling that Iran is risking a war with the US by escalating its military adventurism and aggressive policies in the region.

After all, any war between the US and Islamic Republic would be suicidal for the ruling clerics. The US military budget dwarfs Iran’s, being about 40 times higher — Washington’s is more than $600 billion, accordingto the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, while Tehran’s is $14 billion. The US, whose air and naval forces are reportedly the most powerfulin the world, indisputably outguns Iran’s forces. America’s fleet of aircraftis nearly 15 times bigger than Iran’s.

Considering the fact that Iran’s military capabilities are vastly inferior to those of the US, why are the Iranian leaders ignoring Washington’s warnings and risking a war with the superpower? They are doing so because Tehran seems to have come to the conclusion that President Donald Trump does not want to be engaged in a military confrontation with the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian leaders did not reach this conclusion the day that Trump took office. Instead, the Islamic Republic has slowly tested the White House over the last two years. At first, it began exploiting its strategic advantage by issuing threats to block the Strait of Hormuz. Then the Iranian regime started harassing and attacking ships in the strait and its surrounding waters.

When the first oil tanker was attacked, Tehran saw that there was no military response to its aggression, even though the targeting of oil tankers poses a significant threat to the national security of European nations and Asian countries, as well as the US. This further emboldened the regime. In the space of a few months, several oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf, including Japanese and Norwegian vessels.

The Islamic Republic subsequently took another risk by shooting down a US Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk drone. Gen. Amirali Hajizadeh even braggedabout the attack, saying: “With the US drone in the region, there was also an American P-8 plane with 35 people on board. This plane also entered our airspace and we could have shot it down, but we did not.”

This Iranian test also did not trigger a military response from the US. Instead, Trump tweeted: “We were cocked and loaded to retaliate… Ten minutes before the strike I stopped it, not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world.”

The Iranian leaders did not interpret the move as a sign of diplomacy, rather a sign that Trump is afraid of taking military action against Tehran. This made the regime even more emboldened, as the next major move was an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply; targeting the world’s biggest oil processing facility at Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, as well as the Kingdom’s second-largest oilfield at Khurais.

The Iranian leaders’ belief that Trump does not want to consider military options was further strengthened when the president’s National Security Adviser John Bolton left the White House. Bolton had a history of advocating for regime change in Iran. A year before he joined the Trump team, he told the Iranian oppositional group known as Mojahedin-e Khalq that: “The outcome of the president’s policy review should be to determine that Ayatollah (Ruhollah) Khomeini’s 1979 revolution will not last until its 40th birthday.”

More recently, some of the Iranian leaders have publicly stated that Trump does not want a military confrontation with Iran. Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif in July pointed a finger at Trump’s team and his national security adviser in particular, not the president himself. Zarif tweeted: “Make no mistake: Having failed to lure (Trump) into War of the Century, and fearing collapse of his #B_Team, (Bolton) is turning his venom against the UK in hopes of dragging it into a quagmire. Only prudence and foresight can thwart such ploys.”

Iran’s state-owned media outlets have also begun endorsing the idea that the US president does not want to consider a military response. For example, Press TV publishedan article quoting an analyst with the headline: “Trump doesn’t want war with Iran, so (Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo changes tone accordingly.”

From the perspective of the Iranian regime, Trump does not want to go to war with Tehran. The regime tested the Trump administration on several occasions and came to the conclusion that its aggression did not trigger a military response. This is partially why the Islamic Republic is gradually ratcheting up its military adventurism in the region.

  • Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

 

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6 responses to “Iran believes Trump is afraid of taking military action”

  1. I study this every day for some years
    Its not Trump who is afraid, its his advisors who are all jews
    they know that israel is hated all over the world, and israel woud beara very large brunt
    of any reprisals.
    The destruction of Israel is foretold in several places in the bible
    the Hasidics know this and its why they want a stop to
    1 all israeli terrorism world wide
    2 an immediate cessation to all theft, land mineral and oil resources
    3 no more monetary theft scheisting swindling stock and bond manipulation

  2. Excellent introduction to the foolish article that was written by another stupid Iranian-American media slave paid a petty price for his spin and dis-info. They simply can’t believe their own eyes seeing that Iran has deterred US and in fact US has no options on the table or even under it! They had been continuously prophesying the demise of Islamic Republic since the beginning of the Islamic Revolution. Today even those Iranians who hate Islam but at least have the love of their country and history and are not sellouts or “westernized”, have come to the conclusion that Indeed this is a revival of the old Persian Empire and some of them even love Khamenai as King, they are growing in numbers and you can see despite economic hardship Iranians are coming together in a constructive way and this is unprecedented in recent history. I can assure you that after Rouhani, Iran will accelerate exponentially in economic revival. As Khamenai said Iran has never started a war and will never start one however acts strongly in defense… “There will be no war and we won’t negotiate!” said the old man whose right hand was completely disabled in the MEK bombing attack, he survived the blast miraculously as his doctors said. And now the same terrorist MEK that Jone Bolton loved so much is called “Iranian oppositional group” by the sellout author of the article!

    So it is important to understand Iran’s core system does not operate on money… sure we have corrupt governments and presidents to varying degrees the worse of which is Rouhani’s but the core system consisting of The Supreme Leader, Basij and IRGC are extremely pure… I would like to say that as an Iranian I don’t believe US sanctions are even the fifth reason for our economic problems. We have thieves and then we have banks! Over 110 times, 7 Shiite high-scholars have voiced their opposition to banks and usury and yet still nothing! These 7 Shiite scholars must be on the Team Jesus Christ as he was also against the usury of Jews of his time. This is a global issue and many Americans and others too are suffering for this… it has little to do with sanctions.

    Iran has reached total deterrence in military power… after Rouhani’s government Iran will undergo a great purge of corrupt elements and accelerate to become powerful economically and will restart its space, nuclear and other scientific programs that were put on hold by this pathetic Rohani government just to “reduce tensions” and open way for dialog! Iran’s negotiating team of Rouhani will be held accountable for slowing and even stopping Iran’s progress. It pains me to say it but Dr. Zarif our foreign minister and negotiator didn’t believe we had any military capability at all! US government was really bamboozled by all these conflicting information! On one hand the Iran Think-Tanks were deluded themselves while Iran’s Rohani was playing to the tune of negotiations and there other IRGC showing off what it can do!

    It is not easy to start a revolution and work it out despite having so many enemies inside and outside and not only survive but also thrive. Egypt couldn’t keep its revolution for just a short time; Morsi who thought Assad is finished died in prison a couple of months ago! Iran’s revolution has gone through many hard phases. The fact that Islamic Republic is still standing means that it has defeated the last internal opposing ideology, namely the Liberals. Within every country there are many different factions, groups and ideologies. They have all failed against the core Shiite ideology. MEK started as a mix of Marxist-Islamist movement. After Shah was deposed and they couldn’t get any share, they started their terror. On the streets of Tehran they killed 17000 people, mainly randomly anyone with beard or hijab! Much more recently the they killed a few of our nuclear scientists. How can Iran negotiate with US when MEK is a friend of US gov? Tel this to Rohani who repeatedly crossed Supreme Leaders red lines.

  3. Much discussed is if Trump has the nerve to attack Iran. Like General George Armstrong Custer, does Trump have the nerve and ride down into the coulee and attack them wild Iranians? So far, nope.

    Back at headquarters, in Tel Aviv, how will Satanyahu, the king of terror, maintain his reign of power now that he is backed into a corner, unable to form a government, facing criminal charges.

    “The Devil went down to Tel Aviv. He was lookin’ for a government to steal
    He was in a bind ’cause he was way behind. He was willing to make a deal.”

    What is the poor antichrist to do with his back up against the wall and in the fight of his political life as king of Israel and Likud way of kill ’em all? He’s Bibi and he ain’t going’ to quit. He has to go on the offensive, screw the defensive strategy when you are guilty as hell.

    Playing defense sucks, why should HE even have to appear in court and plead to peons, he’s the King and being royal he deserves a free pass and some respect having done more than any other for the security of HIS people. How dare these little shits in the courts broach his glory. Don’t they know he’s a Likud mob boss has the power to kill peons everywhere?

    Bibi’s the king of terror, the author of 911, the manipulator of the American Presidents. Seeing that his best buddy Trump is also in trouble, facing impeachment, he’s got to make a deal, just like the one he made with GW Bush who signed off on the 911 false flag, but this time Bibi’s go to step it up to a new level, a nuclear false flag, maybe a big tsunami bomb that takes on Seattle on 311 predictive programmed date.

    What bothers Trump more than anything is impeachment – forced removal from power – because in Trump’s self obsessed narcissistic mind, he is the greatest gift to America and women ever. How dare they broach his glory? Trump wants to go down in history as the greatest president ever, the ONE who saved Amerika.

    What will Trump do but make a deal with the devil? November 3rd is just 4 weeks away and Bibi’s got just 4 weeks to come up with a plan to stay in power. Just sayin’ the stars have aligned to make the 311 happen.

  4. The recent victories of the Hoothis against Saudis marks a very important junction in history.

    On one side we have the wealthiest Arab country backed by Israel and US spending billions on “state of the art” weapons, on the other we have the poorest Arab country whose only help is just the know-how that Iran provides them, this includes the strategic and tactical skills in asymmetrical warfare and the technology to make cheap and effective asymmetric weapons such as missiles and drones. … and the big news is the poorest Arab country has defeated the richest Arab country! This translate to another defeat for US and another victory for Iran.

    So in terms of military, just how much money is important? Not much, it can help but it is not essential! You can’t buy bravery, skill and creativity with money! There was a time Iran had nothing to fight and yet the whole world supported Saddam. Khomeini is the father of resistance front, he created Basij and IRGC, being under sanctions, Iran didn’t have even the most basic radars. There is documentary “Battle of Waves” (نبرد امواج) about how Iran developed its radars industriously under sanctions… it was not money! It was not an Iranian version of a company like Northrop Grumman that developed the radars and missiles. Both Americans and their allies by extension fight very expensively and inefficiently, nowadays they mainly hire mercenaries to fight for them and the best they could come up with was ISIS. As General Hajizad the commander of aerospace division of IRGC once said if we even assume that a US air defense system like Patriot or Iron-Dome manage to detect and shoot down a 20K$ Iranian drone, it would still count in favor of Iran because that missile is much more expensive! Now imagine the situation with the much cheaper Yemeni drones! This is not sustainable. Petrodollar or the Saudi milking cow pays for US hegemony, how can 50% reduction in oil-output be a false-flag?

    Trump said us spent 7 Trillion (12 zeros) in the region, that’s money just for CENTCOM; Pompeo lied and said Iran spent 16 billion (9 zeros) since 2013 in Syria. Results are clear… a four-star decorated general Joseph Votel head of CENTCOM with that money versus a two star general Qasem Suleimani who is an Iran-Iraq war veteran. No wonder on 28 March 2019 Gen Votel was dismissed! If you calculate based on what Trump and Pompeo said and assume fixed populations of 300 million and 80 million for US and Iran respectively…. US spent ~23000$ per each American citizen in the Middle East while Iran spent 200$ per each Iranian. Assuming Pompeo was correct, still this is a very efficient victory! Now the truth is Iran spent much less! Rohani cut the Military/Security/IRGC budget and paid 1/3 only! I have a lot to say about the bastard Rouhani but this is not the time.

    US could pay 23000$ to each of 45 million American poor and homeless and still have about 5.9 Trillion to fix Flint water and do many other amazing things! Had US offered that money as Charity to the poor nations, it would have had much more power in the world today! Had US burned that money, perhaps Iran would still be inside its borders!

    If we have poor in Iran, its not as shameful, but when US is in such a mess, then what is the excuse?

    Iranians are not arrogant or children to brag about such things…. we really see America as great country/nation that has been ruined by failed policies and Jewish infiltration… we too suffer from such infiltration and at times our enemies had a lot of hope in their agents abilities!

    Here is another example of how money is inconsequential in military matters despite During Tanker wars in Iran-Iraq(Saddam) war:

    The biggest oil-tanker of its time belonging to Kuwait by the name “Al-Rekhah”, was renamed to Bridgeton and re-flagged for US. In operation Earnest Will, US navy escorted the Tanker with at least 5 vessels, two missile-frigates, two cruisers and a destroyer. CNN and others were 24/7 reporting this to the world saying US is escorting this tanker and Iran can’t do anything! On Imam Khomeini’s direct order IRGC sends two speedboats ahead of the ginormous oil tanker path and they manage to lay/drop two sea-mines in such a way that the front escorting frigate is not hit but one of the mines hit the Bridgton on the side, causing a massive 43 square-meter hole that eventually sinks the tanker! The funny part is US escort moves behind the sinking Tanker for cover, at first they thought it was a missile! Later these speedboats are attacked by two US helicopters, they also shoot down one of the helicopters in the fight, the commander of the mining squad Nader Mahdavi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nader_Mahdavi was captured and killed after severe torture. It is said the he was shot on both feet and on forehead and had many deep cuts on his chest. His body was returned days later through Oman. US prestige shattered. He was a hero! Just think for a minute how much two simple speedboats and two Chinese mines cost? Back then Iran had nothing, it was just pure will and creativity of these men. You see similar things in Yemen except this time developments are much faster!

    One of the Brigdton escorts was USS Vincennes that shot down an Iranian passenger plane killing many including 60 children. Shah of Iran actually had purchased those frigates and paid in full however after Revolution US did not return them and actually used them against Iran.

    The famous saying that “Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely!” is perhaps correct about money. However generally Power corrupts only sick and weak men… Power actually makes real men responsible and healthy!

  5. Dr Rafizadeh is obviously a newbie in the US and wants to demonstrate that he is ready to give head to Donald Trump and will do his job better than Stormy Daniels. Disguisting.

    The war on Iran may be the last war of criminal US Empire in Eurasia. Everybody knows that. Iran may receive support from Russia&China. Rafizadeh says that it was Iran to attack Japanese tankers at the Strait of Hormuz. Is he sure? Why not Great Satan or MoSSad? Reasoning based on questionable premises. Wishful thinking.

  6. Attack on Saudi oil installation was most likely supported by MoSSad.
    At the same time there were attacks on Italian and Mexican oil processsing installations:
    https://report.az/en/other-countries/blast-hits-eni-refinery/
    https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news-alerts/267931/mexico-explosion-reported-at-oil-refinery-in-salina-cruz-oaxaca-state-september-17

    For Houthis attacking Saudi oil was not a priority. They fight with mercenaries and Saudi army.
    But MoSSad was interested in oil. Any predicted change in oil price may produce heavy millions for prophets. Jews have capacity to earn on oil price change and wanted to create false flag operation to blame Iran for the attack. They have capacity to organize terrorist attacks worldwide. For them the attack(s) was (were) a win-win situation.
    Houthis were also interested in the attack, for them Saudi family is an enemy and any successful attack is a pure energy gain in this war.

    Is the attack on Saudi, Italian and Mexican oil installations a coincidence?