Introduction – June 9, 2019
There’s good reason to believe that Trump’s belligerence over Iran is more bluff than anything else. So a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim that Trump is “avoiding” war with Iran is probably correct and for a number of reasons.
First it looks unlikely that the U.S. could prevail in an armed conflict with Iran. America’s Western allies seem increasingly unwilling to side with the U.S. over Iran’s nuclear program so they would be even less likely to join a military campaign against it. Of the two countries that would support a U.S. military strike on Iran:
Israel’ participation would be counter-productive as it would stir the ire of much of the Muslim world.
While although Saudi Arabia has spent vast sums on state of the art weaponry, its military prowess seems decidedly lacking. As witness its poor showing in the war with the Houthis.
Even if the Trump administration were to embark on a military campaign it would stir protests across the U.S., which would probably be wider and more vociferous than those against the Vietnam War.
Moreover, domestic opposition would only grow as U.S. casualties mounted. Especially as U.S. casualty figures in a war against Iran would rival or even exceed those sustained during the Vietnam War.
Despite Trump’s posturing, his military commanders know that Iran would be a tough call. Iran has spent the past decade and a half developing its own domestic arms industry, which in some key areas would present the U.S. with serious challenges.
The U.S. has always sought to establish air superiority before committing its ground forces. However, Iran’s development of its own air defences, the upgrading of domestically developed radars plus its acquisition of Russia’s S-300 raise questions about whether the U.S. would be able to establish air superiority.
Without it America just won’t go to war. So we suspect that the following assessment from a former IRGC commander is correct when he says that the U.S. doesn’t have what it takes to prevail in a military conflict with Iran. Ed.
‘Trump avoids war because he knows about Iran’s might’
Press TV – June 9, 2019
A senior Iranian official says US President Donald Trump avoids war with Iran knowing how much would be at stake for Washington and its allies if such a conflict broke out.
Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council, said in a television interview on Sunday that the country’s military power was deterring Trump from engaging in a war.
“They (the Americans) know that Iran’s military power has reached such a level that the slightest act [of aggression] by them would send the entire region aflame and leave nothing behind for the Zionist regime (Israel) or the US friends and interests here,” said Rezaei, a former chief commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).
He dismissed Washington’s recent mobilization of an aircraft carrier to the region as mere “posturing and maneuvering.”
“In practice, they never intended [to engage in] real conflict, and have now kept their distance from us to avoid even an unintended confrontation,” he said.
‘Lacking the resources for the big battle with Iran’
Despite the dispatch of the aircraft carrier, as well as other military deployments, Trump and officials close to him have on several occasions denied that they intend to go to war with Iran.
Rezaei said the US could no longer afford the costs of an overseas conflict. Nor, he said, will it be able to rally others behind itself as it did in the case of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, or to obtain a United Nations Security Council mandate for such an engagement.
“America… doesn’t have the resources for the big battle with Iran,” he said.
The US now only has Israel and Saudi Arabia on its side, he said, adding that even Europe was not quite collaborating with Washington either.