As early as autumn 2009 the economic crisis may lead to a civil war in the USA and then to its division into parts. Igor Panarin, doctor of political science, dean of the foreign affairs department at the Diplomacy Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, presented this forecast ten years ago. At that time his forecasts seemed unrealistic, but now many of them are coming true.
We present a new version of the event’s development through the eyes of the scientist, even though it may seem disputable and even scandalous.
In his interview with , professor Panarin shares his opinion on the following issues: why the United States decided on monetary reform; who Obama is working for; and why it is better for Russia to be friends with China.
Question: Mr. Panarin, where did this idea of the breakup of the US come from back in 1998, when this country was prospering and when it was an unconditional world leader?
Answer: In September 1998 an international conference called the Informational War was held in Austria. I presented my analytical research there. 150 out of 400 participants were from the USA. There was outrageous shouting in the audience when I was talking about the division of America in my presentation. However my reasons were well-grounded. Back then it was obvious that finance and economy would be the main destructive power for the USA. The dollar was not secured by anything. The external debt of the country was growing like an avalanche in spite of the fact that it was non-existent at the beginning of the 1980s. In 1998, when I was making my forecast, it had reached 2 trillion dollars. Today it’s more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid which is bound to collapse.
Q: Will the entire American economy collapse?
A: It is collapsing now. Three out of the five largest and oldest banks on Wall Street ceased to exist because of the financial crisis; and the other two are on the verge of surviving. Their losses are the largest in history. Now we are talking about replacing the regulation system in the world: America will no longer be the world regulator.
Q: Which country will replace it?
A: Two countries are making a claim for this role: China with its large reserves, and Russia as a country which could play the role of a regulator on the Eurasian territory. A rather remarkable event took place at the G20 summit which has just taken place in Washington. Participants put forward the new architectonics of the international affairs where a key role would belong to the International Monetary Fund. But the International Monetary Fund needs funds. Thus the participants addressed China and Japan with a request to provide money. The gold reserves of China come to more than 2 trillion dollars. It is the largest creditor to the USA. Now it will definitely affect the policy of the fund. By the way, it is not accidental that Mr. Hu Jintao met two leaders at the summit: the Russian President and the leader of the UK. There are plans to hold the spring G20 meeting in England. And the meeting with Russia as a country which is putting forward the basic principles of reconstructing the world financial system also clearly fits the vision of the Chinese reformation process.
Q: We are clear about the world leaders. But let’s go back to the USA. What makes you believe in the possible division of the country?
A: There are a number of reasons. First, the financial problems of the USA will increase. Millions of citizens have already lost their savings. Prices and unemployment keep growing. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse which means that entire towns will end up unemployed. The governors are now harshly demanding money from the federal center. Complaints are growing. They’ve been restrained so far by the presidential election and by hope that Obama could perform a miracle. However, by spring it will become clear that a miracle will not happen.
The second factor is the vulnerability of the political mechanism in the USA. There is no uniform legislation on the territory of the country. There aren’t even general uniform traffic rules. The skeleton which keeps the USA together is fragile. Even the armed forces in Iraq are represented by the non-citizens of the United States to a large extent. They fight for the promise of American citizenship. Thus the army, as a melting pot has stopped fulfilling a consolidating function for the American state. And finally, the split of the elite has made itself especially clear under the conditions of the crisis.
Q: How will the country be divided? Mexico is obviously in the south. What else?
A: There are six parts altogether. The first one is the Pacific Ocean coast of the USA. I can give you an example: 53% of San Francisco’s population is Chinese. The Governor of Washington state was an ethnic Chinese; its capital, Seattle, is called the gate of the Chinese emigration to the USA. It is obvious that the Pacific Ocean coast has been gradually influenced by China. The second part in the south is definitely the Mexicans. In some areas, Spanish has become the official language already. Then comes Texas which has been openly fighting for independence. The Atlantic coast has a totally different ethnos and mentality. It could be split into two parts as well. And we are left with two central depressive areas. May I remind you that five central states where the Indians live had announced their independence. It was perceived as a joke or a kind of a political show. But the fact remains the same. Canada is making a strong influence in the North. By the way, Russia may require returning Alaska, as it had been rented out…
Q: What will happen to the dollar then?
A: In 2006 a secret agreement was made between Canada, Mexico and the USA on preparing to implement the Amero as a new currency unit. This may mean replacement of the dollar. At the same time 100-dollar notes which have flooded the world may just get “frozen”. An excuse may be used, for example, that terrorists have made false notes which need to be checked.
Q: Could you tell us about the division of the elite. Are these the democrats and the republicans?
A: No, that is not right. There are two groups in the US authorities. The first one may be called the globalists, or the Trotskyites. Leon Trotsky had already formulated their idea in the past: it’s not Russia that we need, but a world revolution. Soviet Russia was viewed by them as a base for control over the world. The second group is the statists which want prosperity for their country. Representatives of these two clans are present in both Democratic and Republican Parties. Take voting for the anti-crisis plan of Paulson, which was suggested by the Republican administration, for example. It was voted down in the Congress by the Republicans first of all.
Q: Who is in charge of the clans?
A: The key persons of the globalists are Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Vice President Dick Cheney. The key persons of the statists are Robert Gates, Defense Secretary; Michael Hayden, CIA Director; and Admiral Mike McConnell, director of national intelligence. Globalists are mainly the financial elite, and statists are the armed forces, special services and military and industrial complex. Recently the confrontation between these two clans has become open. In December last year the statists presented a report which completely denied the existence of the nuclear program in Iran. It directly contradicted conclusions made by Condoleezza Rice and Dick Cheney. The second important event took place at the hearings of the US Congress concerning the 5-day war in the Caucasus. The globalists represented by Condoleezza Rice insisted that Russia had started the war and that it would be punished for it. Georgia was the project of Condoleezza. And representatives of the intelligence community presented a diametrically opposite statement: that Georgia had started the war. We see an open confrontation between very outstanding political figures.
Q: And who’s Obama’s company?
A: The statists with Gates in charge were the key players who had enabled Obama to win. They are demanding that he change the general line in return. In this light, a very interesting factor is that Gates the Republican is viewed as the most important candidate as to whether he remains the US Defense Secretary or becomes the Secretary of State. This is the influence of the statists on the President. By the way, the first session which Obama held was with the American intelligence community.
Q: What does the victory of the statists mean for Russia?
A: It’s a rather good chance for us, as they acted on our side in the conflict in the Caucasus. According to President Medvedev’s visit to the USA we see that he was not subject to any obstruction in relation to the events in the Caucasus. The atmosphere in Washington was rather calm and friendly.
Q: What should Russia do in order to avoid shocks in relation to a possible economic collapse of the United States?
A: It should develop the rouble as the regional currency. It should form an efficient petroleum exchange which would sell oil for roubles. Several days ago an agreement was signed between Russia and Belarus on transferring payments for oil and gas to roubles. This is the beginning of establishing the ruble as the regional currency as well. We’ve been receiving our currency from Kazakhstan and Belarus for electricity already. Now our task is to try to make as many rouble contracts as possible for the year 2009 before the end of this year. In this case Russia will be able to escape the growing global crisis. We have to cut the ropes tying us to the financial “Titanic” which, in my opinion, will drown in the nearest future.
Translated by RT.
26 November, 2008
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