In many other countries it would be a slam dunk for the opposition: The president is increasingly unpopular, his economic policies are blamed for 30 percent annual inflation, and his foreign policy has left the country more isolated than at any time in recent memory.
However, this is Iran, where things are never simple. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be the subject of incessant grumbling and the butt of jokes zinging from cell phone to cell phone via text message. Yet with presidential elections six months away, he’s still the man to beat.
The elections will be of intense interest to President-elect Barack Obama. Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program, support for terrorist groups and influence in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf are likely to make the Islamic Republic one of his main foreign policy challenges.
Some observers have speculated that Obama may wait until after June before offering direct negotiations with Iran, in hopes that Ahmadinejad will be replaced by a more moderate figure.
Ahmadinejad’s opponents, mostly reformers and some traditional conservatives, are struggling to capitalize on the president’s woes and heal their own internal divisions.
“We’re not sure we’re going to have a consensus candidate,” acknowledged Mostafa Tajzadeh, a deputy interior minister under former President Mohammad Khatami.
Tajzadeh spoke in an interview in the offices of a magazine published by the Islamic Iran Participation Front, a reformist party associated with Khatami. Days earlier, criticism of Ahmadinejad’s economic policies dominated the party’s annual meeting in Tehran.
Khatami, who served two terms as president from 1997 to 2005, has emerged as the opposition’s best hope. An intense, behind-the-scenes campaign is under way to persuade him to run, according to Iranian political figures and analysts.
“Khatami looks like a savior to the people right now,” said one analyst who requested anonymity because he feared retribution.
“We were critical of Khatami before,” the analyst said, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the former president’s failure to carry out reforms opposed by the country’s conservative Shiite Muslim religious establishment. “Now, we pray he returns.”
Khatami, 65, has said that he’s considering running for his old job, but he hasn’t decided.
Other potential candidates in the June election include Ahmadinejad, who has yet to announce that he’ll seek a second four-year term; moderate cleric Mehdi Karroubi, who finished third in the 2005 presidential election; speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani; and respected Tehran mayor, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, who holds the post Ahmadinejad once had.
Ahmadinejad appears to have the support of Iran’s security forces, including the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and of many poorer, rural Iranians, whom he’s courted. Crucially, he also has tacit backing from Iran’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — at least for now.
“The will of Ayatollah Khamenei is going to be a huge factor in determining who is Iran’s next president,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Though Khamenei publicly defends Ahmadinejad, he may well decide that the costs of having him serve a second term outweigh the benefits.